Keywords Studios Share Discussion Threads

[alphabeta4] 09/11/2018 15:03

These were £14 this time last year and have had 61% forecast eps growth for 2018 so holders are getting that for free. Last 3 years eps has been 63%, 52%, 61%. A forward of c27 (which is based on eps growth next year of 20% - also likely to be wrong) seems hardly demanding.

IMHO this fall is pretty much done as much as some shorters would like to protest otherwise.

[mr euro] 09/11/2018 11:25

Lot's of people rode the wave up, the fact is, when people reflect, KWS is at a stupidly high rating. Nobody doubts the fact they are a decent SERVICES company, but no services company of this size deserves a rating/valuation of even half of where they are at.

Even high growth, high end software development companies would struggle at this rating let alone a services provider!

Price could half and its still too expensive.

[rathean] 09/11/2018 09:18

We didn't reach that critical mass to break north so it looks more like a sideways shuffle until news / market sentiment dictate otherwise. My Alliance Pharma following the same pattern, do close to a break north but wobbled back down into its horizontal trading range.Oh for a bit of euphoria before the market goes full on bear :)

[phowdo] 09/11/2018 08:35

ATVI off 10% yday after poor results and forward guidance.

[ali47fish] 08/11/2018 19:03

thank you james and Rivaldo- it confirms my thinking but checking against other investors' gut feeling is helpful-i try to use brokers' forecasts as one source of information- i am keen to explore when it might be a good time to reenter/add but i know the market turbulence could resume and increase,so i will bide my time for now!

[jamesjjj] 08/11/2018 15:50

what triggers shares going up or down is more to do with the way humans behave ie if there is doom and gloom and a wall of worry stocks like kws which are generally considered growth stocks tend to plummet.If sentiment changes then they suddenly are seen as oversold and they rise potentially quickly. We have had a sharp correction in the markets and hopefully sentiment is slowly changing.If my memory serves me well around 95% of stock leaders emerge from corrections. So the answer to your question is that potentially KWS could make great gains from here. Analyst or broker comments do not necessarily mean share prices will reflect what they say. Generally speaking if the overall markets USA/UK recover then most likely KWS will also, provided no other factors come into play. Obviously ultimately you only can decide if you think now is the time.

[ali47fish] 08/11/2018 15:22

i am invested for a long time but at his juncture i am at a loss to work out if this is going back to the highs of £20 in which case is now a good entry- in a word what is triggering the movements here as no broker or analyst or the company has come out with a verdict- any insights most welcome!

[jamesjjj] 08/11/2018 09:57

I agree. As I said yesterday I fully expected a positive start this morning. If it can push through the overhang then as rathean said it could really go.

[rathean] 08/11/2018 08:53

Important level this, if the share price pushes on we've got ourselves a rather well formed W and could see 1650 in quick time... imo dyor ofc.

[jamesjjj] 07/11/2018 22:26

The US indices closed really strongly today which is encouraging for KWS tomorrow.
Kws still demonstrating consolidation with a nice test of support. If it gets out of the blocks it will potentially fly as sentiment is starting to look encouraging after US midterms gave no major unforeseen surprises. A good drop in the vix is also really encouraging.

[bamboo2] 07/11/2018 16:30

Re KWS, as I have mentioned in an earlier post, I am worried that there is a second part to the bear flag, which has a tp approx 1050.

Re indices, I am not sure markets are ready for stability. I have more volatility forecast, starting tomorrow with a potential turn on the NDX. Friday has potential turns for DJI and UKX.

It's very hard doing nothing.

[alphabeta4] 07/11/2018 16:07

Cracking call Bamboo (US helped a bit)?

[bulltradept] 07/11/2018 14:44

bamboo2,

Really? I suppose the positive is it hasn't gone down a lot, the negative is most AIM highly valued stocks have increased, given one uncertainty out of the way, but KWS still finds itself languishing. Hopefully soon though.

[bamboo2] 07/11/2018 13:57

One of my charts [last market price based] has today as a potential turn day.

The mid price based chart above says wait until Friday.

Might buy again on an intraday 1300

[alphabeta4] 07/11/2018 13:32

Phowdo, just some index shorts for me along with a bit of selling and buying back cheaper on some of the more narrow spreads. Wasn't perfect but saved me 5% on the recent fall. Personally I currently think this drop will blow over as I can't see how the Fed will be able to keep increasing rates if inflation doesn't start to pick up. That in turn should help growth shares such as kws. Think it's worth noting eps growth here has been over 50% each of the last 3 years. If it does anywhere near that again in 2019 the current price is a steal.
All IMHO of course :)

[tinman] 07/11/2018 12:18

Anyone use Hargreaves Lansdowne for charting? I'd be interested in what software anyone uses for TA..

[jamesjjj] 07/11/2018 12:00

Scooper for what its worth i personally use TA and fundamental analysis for trading with a curve towards volume price action. I use fundamentals for deciding whether to invest and TA for timing. I have to agree with alphabeta and you can overdo TA looking for every indicator to mean something. A few moving averages and price volume action has served me well over many years. Most people think of TA as the psychology of human behaviour which may or may not be relevant to the fundamentals at that time.
As far as KWS is concerned it is clear that there has been a lot of fear set in triggered by the correction of the indices. Fear to greed can turn very quickly.
In these instances it is about whether you are a momentum trader or contrarian. If you are looking at KWS as a contrarian you would probably be watching extremely closely. Time will tell

[bulltradept] 07/11/2018 11:32

Hi phowdo,

I find I make my best returns counter trading shares which by the usual definition, have entered their own bear market.

Buffet said something like if you can't bear a 50% pull back in the price perhaps you shouldn't be in the market. :-O

[phowdo] 07/11/2018 11:09

> doing this for six years full time
> have been for 3 years

Hope you 2 have decent action plans for the next bear market.

[bulltradept] 07/11/2018 10:12

Alphabeta4,

I think you have to find your own personal style and what works for you. I know zero about FA if I am brutally honest, OK did accounting modules but TA is all I really use.

A lot of people get overwhelmed by the amount of indicators, set ups and patterns there are, but if you boil it down to those that work for you, you should do OK. IMVHO, it's people's position sizing, ego and psychology which I consider the main issues which get a lot of people into trouble.

Regarding your comment about overtrading, again I think that comes under people's personal style. With commissions as low as they are and as long as you have a reasonable amount of capital this shouldn't really impact your performance.

You are probably the opposite of me in that I've been doing this for six years full time (come the end of December) and think TA is the bee's knees! ;-)

[bulltradept] 07/11/2018 09:58

Here's a few in no particular order:

Getting started in Technical Analysis Jack D Schwager of Market Wizards fame.

Getting Started in Chart Patterns Thomas N Bulkowski

Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets JJ Murphy

Technical Analysis from A to Z Steven B Achelis.

Enjoy!

[alphabeta4] 07/11/2018 09:55

I think I should probably add that I personally think technical analysis is overused - there are so many different indicators that the risk (especially if new to it) is that it can lead to over trading. IMHO it also has to be combined with fundamental analysis otherwise it can lead to mistakes.

I'm a professional trader (have been for 3 years) and would say 75% of my returns are finding good companies at decent prices. The other 25% is from selling or top slicing when they are overextended and buying back cheaper. This is often as simple as using 14 day RSI or can be adjusting the portfolio so it always has the most money in the things I expect to do best.

Sorry to be a bit negative (there are some decent posters on here) but I thought it worth giving the alternative view. At the end of the day there are lots of ways to make money and each to their own.

[scooper72] 07/11/2018 09:17

That would be v kind bulltradept. Thanks. I should probably make an effort to understand price patterns from a technical perspective. Even if I don't end up employing it as a main strategy, at least it would help to see how others are thinking.

[bulltradept] 07/11/2018 09:07

I can recommend some good books if interested? Cheap too! So can Bamboo I suspect.

[scooper72] 07/11/2018 08:15

Lol. Nope. English Lit grad.