Keras Resources Share Discussion Threads

[edgein] 11/9/2020 08:26

Given a quick go on the calculator its 2,964,000 MTU at 38% contained metal (trail mining was about 41% concentrate) $10.250m gross revenue or about $7.5m to KRS with about $2.5m free cash flow in year 1. At full production its more like 11.4m MTU gross, with KRS share equating to around $30m in revenues at full production. With about $10m free cash flow if you use just a $1.20/MTU margin. I guess it must be down to the lack of ML currently on Nayega that makes them given an NPV much less on 76.5% of Nayega vs 51% of DC.

Regards,
Ed.

[edgein] 11/9/2020 08:09

RS,

Nor does it seem to include any of the reserves, it seems to be an NPV based solely on level of production or cash flow using the trial mining volumes and is ignoring the large manganese elephant in the room which is circa 14Mt at 12% Mn or about 168m Mtu of contained metal and at 3.45 per Mtu of contained metal is $561m and at 76.5% is araound $426m over the life of the project to KRS in revenues. Given the little CAPEX of $1.6m required for full production they're ignoring of the reserves seems extreme. That's probably how they arrive at the 481% IRR though. $3.45/Mtu is still towards the low end as Mn cycles between $3-8 and would average around $4-5/year. Conservative is one word for the NPV, nuts is another.

Regards,
Ed.

[rec0very stock] 11/9/2020 00:25

More than just a bit! Slide 7 of Q1 presentation said:

"Independent valuation [I believe this was share price Angel] of £11.7m based on current installed processing capacity of 6,500tpm – does not take into account the expansion to 25,000tpm."

At that stage my calcs gave £22m unrisked and I felt a 50% reduction for the risks which still existed (we did not have the decree and a few other bits when share price Angel came up with that figure) was conservative but fair.

[zhockey] 10/9/2020 22:17

I think saying that Nayega is only worth $10M, seems a bit wrong.

[rec0very stock] 10/9/2020 20:34

The issue with the Shard calculation of NPV of Nayega is that they assume about 50% of EBITDA is going to disappear in royalties tax and fees before it becomes project FCF. I will try to get clarification as this seem very steep. The rest makes sense given they have only done the phase 1 6 years and have used more conservative assumptions than the company.

[markyess] 10/9/2020 18:38

Deliberately conservative.

[zhockey] 10/9/2020 18:01

Puts quite a low valuation on Nayega

[markyess] 10/9/2020 17:28

New and very informative Shard Capital research note now posted on the website.

[shortcpx] 10/9/2020 17:16

Websites back up

[markyess] 10/9/2020 13:00

Keras plc website is currently offline. The last time this happened, there was a faux pas with the Diamond Creek pages being visible ahead of an RNS.

What hope there is a quick Ctrl+H exercise going on? Replace 'developer' with 'producer'?

ATB
Mark

[zhockey] 10/9/2020 11:45

As announced on 30 July 2020, 1,191,230,001 new Ordinary Shares commenced trading on the AIM market of the London Stock Exchange ("AIM") on 13 August 2020 ("First Admission"), and following the passing of all resolutions at today's General Meeting, application has been made for admission of a further 889,975,668 new Ordinary Shares to trading on the AIM market of the London Stock Exchange ("AIM") at 08:00 on 25 August 2020 ("Second Admission"). The new Ordinary Shares will rank pari passu with the existing Ordinary Shares, which are currently traded on AIM.

[imjustdandy] 10/9/2020 11:13

200m shares is not a billion shares. Those shares are in safe hands

[zhockey] 10/9/2020 10:47

They just placed over a billion shares, should be plenty of stock

[imjustdandy] 10/9/2020 10:39

Very little stock around today again

[markyess] 10/9/2020 10:38

More TIC. (Tongue in Cheek)

[zhockey] 10/9/2020 10:18

Isn’t that a bit OTT?

[markyess] 10/9/2020 09:25

Has anyone checked that the flights into Lome are running on time?

[zhockey] 10/9/2020 08:33

Here’s to a successful and fruitful trip for Russell and the team!

[imjustdandy] 09/9/2020 14:32

Next week I reckon. Very little stock around now at these levels - Going to move up shortly

[imjustdandy] 09/9/2020 14:32

Next week I reckon. Very little stock around now at these levels - Going to move up shortly

[markyess] 08/9/2020 11:17

I would be surprised if a deal of this magnitude is finalised, documented and broadcasted to the markets inside a working day.

I'd expect news next week. Anything else would be a bonus.

It's promising times - but let's allow it all to play out. We've waited years, waiting a few days is no problem.

[imjustdandy] 08/9/2020 09:47

Ridiculously low price here at 0.15

[hofan111] 08/9/2020 09:33

Hopefully this will be the week that we finally get the neyaga permit. Come on Russell, work your magic down there in Togo sir ... do a dance for them if you have to, whatever it takes ... GLA LTH's!!!!

[the skipper] 07/9/2020 19:41

Looks like the supply of loose stock from the placing has at last dried up. The market should now start to price in the excellent news from Diamond Creek before any news emerges from Togo imho.

[zhockey] 07/9/2020 18:04

Exciting numbers, that’s for sure.