Kenmare Resources Share Discussion Threads

[andyf987] 11/1/2021 11:20

Looks like the Re-rating is well under way here:-)

[spectoacc] 11/1/2021 10:30

Have Puts, but bought a bit early :) The volatility element in the pricing is a killer - eg the Puts ticked up on Friday when the share price rose $60.

Agree re subscription model, much like Apple & eg iStore. And Apple isn't the only phone co just like Tesla isn't the only car (or EV) co.

But - 10m cars paying you $10/month of almost pure profit is $1.2bn. Tesla (fully diluted) is heading to £1trn. And the EV market is about to be flooded - Tesla isn't no.1 in most markets already.

(Got to disagree on self-driving. Self-parking, sure, but self-driving is bizarrely difficult to program, even with AI).

Venturing well off topic but - yes, EV is the future (at least until hydrogen). Yes, Tesla far more than car manufacturing. No, it'll never grow into this valuation. But yes, what's to stop it doubling again from here.

[ukgeorge] 11/1/2021 10:19

this time it is different! ;) the Tesla model of paying silly money for self driving on a monthly basis is a game changer.....

Puts options could be a good way to play it

[spectoacc] 11/1/2021 10:07

Agree on both points.

Prepared to get stopped out and have to try again higher. And since there's almost no valuation tether on Tesla, might come down to the round numbers - eg $1k next.

But but but. I remember 99/2000 all too well, and 2000-2003 even better. It will all crash, it's just when, and from how high. And how much I might lose in the meantime ;)

[spectoacc] 11/1/2021 09:58

Ha ha fair question. Building a Tesla short ;)

[ukgeorge] 11/1/2021 09:55

Thankfully I only came across them this time last year. What else are you currently selling :) ?

[spectoacc] 11/1/2021 09:53

What, years of pain followed by finally a parabolic move up, when you'd sold down 2/3rds of holding over the past 18 months, prior to the move? ;)

[ukgeorge] 11/1/2021 09:40

Why aren't all companies like this :)

[andyf987] 08/1/2021 06:58

John: yes that’s the one. Will be reading again in 2021 for sure. Just started Sapiens by Yaval Harari after hearing him on Tim Ferris’ podcast (which I thoroughly recommend).

George: largest position is in AFC energy, with a c, £4-£5 sale target. Didn’t actually mortgage the house (but just about to complete so technically I have;-) ).

[johnrxx99] 08/1/2021 04:17

I think it is "Reminiscences of a stock operator" but could be wrong.

[ukgeorge] 07/1/2021 10:21

Which other shares do you like?

[andyf987] 07/1/2021 10:00

I know what you mean. I’ve actually pretty much done that with a different stock and to a lesser degree with KMR. One life and I really want my freedom to choose how I spend my time.

[ukgeorge] 07/1/2021 09:34

It is one of the most famous investment books, it does sort of make me want to bet the house on a few trades which isn't so wise though :)

[andyf987] 07/1/2021 09:30

Ah thanks for the recommendation, I’ll check it out. Can’t believe someone else has read Reminiscences;-)

[ukgeorge] 07/1/2021 09:10

I love that book and started to re read it earlier this year. Great story and yes you learn to be patient. Wish I had bought a few more of these.

Jim Rogers Hot Commodities although a decade old is also a good read.

[andyf987] 06/1/2021 20:53

Thanks for the acknowledgement George.

Really pleased to see the movement. I read a great book from 1922 (in 2020) called “reminiscences of a stock trader”. Taught me how to be patient and not sell out too early and holding losers too long.

I think there’s a lot more to go in what is a transformational time for Kenmare.

[ukgeorge] 06/1/2021 20:33

Another cracking day :)

[ukgeorge] 04/1/2021 13:21

You were right Andy :)

[rjf8611] 29/12/2020 17:55

I would agree. We should be due a trading update around the second week of January which could provide some stimulus.

I'm expecting it to reference a very strong shipping quarter for Q4. Further ilmenite price increases which will flow into next year. The 2021 guidance which may even show 1.2m tonnes of ilmenite and a decreasing coat number... And a further update on the last steps of the project.

Maybe I'm just dreaming though ..

[andyf987] 29/12/2020 11:41

Does anyone feel this is becoming due another move... been hovering around £3 for sometime now. I can’t find any particular news but surely a Re-rating is on the cards with the revenue / profit expectations in 2021 onwards following the move.

[ukgeorge] 23/12/2020 10:06

I hope so.

[johnrxx99] 23/12/2020 08:12

Can we still trade in the UK after the AGM?

[donkey40] 05/12/2020 20:51

Like I say, the intellectual opinion is no new equity required. But what if KMR doesn’t wish to remain a one trick pony.

But if I had to bet, 2021 is all about hitting 1.2m output and ironing out the wrinkles. That allows the world to see the post covid horizon.

But they drew down debt lines as covid started to bite, so does that need to be reduced before the special dividend previously flagged can be paid. Interesting and nice problems for the ‘new’ shareholders to have; personally I don’t see share buybacks in the next few years.

[caposoka] 05/12/2020 17:43

Don’t see an equity raise when share buy backs are on the horizon, FCF set to rocket and dev capex having a complete break for a few years until WCP A moves. With Omanis close to 30% threshold, any buybacks will need a bit of co-ordination over what share price would be acceptable as they may reduce in abs terms to maintain their %. For sure share price will need to be much higher than now.

[pdosullivan] 04/12/2020 21:55

In terms of surplus capital, I thought it was interesting that KMR sought shareholder approval for buybacks for the first time at its last AGM. At the current sub-5x forward earnings multiple it's a no brainer to repurchase stock here.