Kenmare Resources Share Discussion Threads

[caposoka] 05/12/2020 17:43

Don’t see an equity raise when share buy backs are on the horizon, FCF set to rocket and dev capex having a complete break for a few years until WCP A moves. With Omanis close to 30% threshold, any buybacks will need a bit of co-ordination over what share price would be acceptable as they may reduce in abs terms to maintain their %. For sure share price will need to be much higher than now.

[pdosullivan] 04/12/2020 21:55

In terms of surplus capital, I thought it was interesting that KMR sought shareholder approval for buybacks for the first time at its last AGM. At the current sub-5x forward earnings multiple it's a no brainer to repurchase stock here.

[donkey40] 04/12/2020 20:28

Net debt isn’t gross debt. The cash surplus is for emergencies in loan repayment - and there has been a lot of chat previously about a special dividend at some point.
But intellectually you are correct - no obvious need for a small equity raise.

[pdosullivan] 04/12/2020 20:07

Davy has net debt falling to just 0.2x EBITDA by end-2021. I don't see a need for an equity raise here.

[pdosullivan] 04/12/2020 20:02

Pilivili will be connected to the grid in the middle of this month. The generators were only needed for a few weeks. Plus pricing has been strong in Q4. I reckon the risks are to the upside in terms of the FY numbers.

[donkey40] 04/12/2020 14:13

Yes, all very controlled and orchestrated. Tend to agree with Murray - 2020 financials could be more disappointing than expected. No doubt the emphasis then will all be forward looking.
A $20m share placement would help the look of everything here. Bring dent back down, provide additional liquidity (perhaps), allow for a few years belting out product and make for an easier swansong...

[andyf987] 04/12/2020 13:01

All seems to be progressing in a sustainable pace, in line with actual progress rather than racing away. Volatility has remained quite low.

[ukgeorge] 04/12/2020 11:35

Hannam & Partners has a price target £4.70

Which would be nice.

Nice update yesterday. Looks good for the next leg up.

[andyf987] 03/12/2020 23:07

Seeing as they have only just moved the plant, was it even expected to have got power etc yet? The it seems to me that the share price is reflecting the expected increase to profits in the months to come rather than these known aspects of the move.

[murraybasin] 03/12/2020 11:01

Sounds more like dressing up of managed down expectations. We don't have power yet, we don't have the pipeline yet, we haven't proven the MSP can consistently handle 1.2mt yet, e.g. when they do currently they are on the edge of the envelope. I expect the unit costs will come in higher than expected in the next quarterly update because of the need to run Pilivili on diesel, and, to truck HMC 23k to the MSP (and related manual management to get it into the MSP). That's a ~ 50k round trip for each load.

[andyf987] 03/12/2020 07:20

RNS today will hopefully be the catalyst for the next leg up of the share price. All appears to be going well and as planned.

[donkey40] 26/11/2020 20:47

It moved up to 300p gradually and on not much volume. That says (to me) someone was accumulating gently. So yes it will likely drift a while but whatever was inspiring whomever to buy is still alive and well, and ahead for them. And us. Stay the course - this one is only getting started imo. Taken far far far too long to be able to say that re this stock.

[andyf987] 25/11/2020 17:13

Hopefully, either that or it has run out of steam. I’ve been thinking the same Re consolidation but it feels like it’s drifting at the moment, and expect a strong move either up or down in the not too distant future.

[ukgeorge] 25/11/2020 09:59

looks like consolidation before the next move up

[ukgeorge] 10/11/2020 11:14

decided to sell 1k today still have 4k left. Great run and great future.

[ukgeorge] 04/11/2020 10:43

onwards :) wish I had a few more of these, roll on £4

[ukgeorge] 29/10/2020 17:25

the only way is up :)

[petomi] 16/10/2020 10:05

Thanks UKGeorge, I hadn't seen this Hannam note.

[petomi] 15/10/2020 10:10

I took the update as very positive (apart of course from the dreadful fatality).

The progress on the WCPB relocation and restart ahead of plan is key (especially given some of the prior history which LTHs will recall with pain). If they can get production from the higher grades there going smoothly it would represent a major derisking and the ambitious price targets would start to look realistic.

One concern which I haven't seen given a lot of attention is the security situation further north. This needs monitoring and would deter me from taking a larger position at present.

GLA

[donkey40] 15/10/2020 00:50

Someone, probably market makers, is sitting quietly on the Bid side hovering up any and all available loose stock in the market. The question is, is this a sign of confidence in the relocation to Pilivi (and strong cash flow generation ahead) or a sign of something more strategic and rewarding?

Answers on a post card please

[donkey40] 29/9/2020 17:40

Like I said, the trend is your friend

[donkey40] 16/9/2020 16:04

Target 440 pence by end of year - yes please. Took a look at the cash flow numbers and the one I couldn’t reconcile was their estimates of changes in working capital.

But - the trend is your friend ... and this is trending the right way for time being.