Keller Share Discussion Threads

[jimmy c] 09/1/2008 14:49

looks like 500p is going shortly, still on for 350p and below i'd have thought.

[simon gordon] 09/1/2008 14:39

Hi Steeple - neat analysis.

Late last year an expert on the Inusrance sector was interviewed on CNBC Europe and he stated that the sell-off in MBIA was excessive, it was a sound business and would bounce strongly. The share price was then $35.00 - I looked at it but thought it was way too risky. The share hit $13.00 yesterday and it may go bust if the Banking crisis continues.

The Insurance expert was totally confident in his call and this is why I took him seriously and looked at the stock.

I think this crash in Small and Mid Cap stocks is making a lot of people look foolish.

The risks are still probably to the downside but at some point there are going to be some outrageous bargains.

[masurenguy] 09/1/2008 14:25

"madmix - 9 Jan'08 - 13:49 - 583 of 584: I notice that Keller at this price are now right on the borderline of being demoted from the FTSE 250 index. Of course, the next review isn't until 12th March, so there's no reason for this to have an immediate negative effect."

Not necessarily - the vast majority of FTSE 250 stocks are down and there could be others who will be closer to the exit than Keller.

[madmix] 09/1/2008 13:49

I notice that Keller at this price are now right on the borderline of being demoted from the FTSE 250 index.

Of course, the next review isn't until 12th March, so there's no reason for this to have an immediate negative effect. And I'm sure there will be plenty more volatility in the price over the next couple of months.

Worth bearing in mind, though.

[jonwig] 09/1/2008 13:31

"KLR has been treated no better and no worse than its peers..."

But it has -

jonwig - 6 Jan'08 - 12:46 - 505 of 581

KLR is being singled out by the market...
Here's the Construction and Materials sector in order of increasing PER. KLR is at no.11 ... take out the top three loss-makers, and SMC (a basket case)and KLR, at no.7 has the highest MCap of any of these companies.
(Source, Sharelock Holmes)

MCap(£m) P/E

DIMENSION RESOURCE 0.9 -17.0
BOU BOUSTEAD 1.4 -4.6
CRYB CRYSTALBAND 0.6 -1.3
SMC SMC GROUP 3.7 2.0
NAQ NBA QUANTUM 1.4 2.3
HYWD H'WOOD WMS 39.2 5.2
SSV SITESERV 32.1 5.5
VST VISTA GROUP 2.4 5.6
ABBY ABBEY 123.1 5.9
TLT TOLENT 23.4 6.3
KLR KELLER GROUP 387.2 6.4


I don't know much about NAQ, HYWD, SSV, VST, ABBY, TLT, but I'll bet most of them have special features which account for their low rating.

[steeplejack] 09/1/2008 12:56

Perhaps,but rochdae's comments about a pricing of risk are spot on and i for one underestimated the speed and depth of the markets sector rerating.Persimmon,for example are now back to a share price last seen 3 years ago.It's too easy to feel that there's something specific to a particular company to explain a price fall or price rise.KLR in the construction sector has been treated no better and no worse than its peers.KLR is a thin market and i guess a natural for PI shorters.Hey ho

[masurenguy] 09/1/2008 12:35

Price has now more than halved over the past 3 months. No indications that either fundamentals or forecasts have changed - just unrelenting negative market sentiment.
I have no idea where the bottom might be but at some point there will be a stellar rebound in the share price !

[janes bond] 09/1/2008 04:53

No worries rochdae. I just thought your comments were a little harsh towards other posters. The more posters, the better in my opinion. One of my friends who posts here now and again has been holding and trading these shares for what seems like a life time, (the sentiment of long term holders baffles me but it depends on your mentality and whos words you have read - LTBH and all that). I was emailed to take a look at them back in November and have made some gains from the early stages of the falls, (for the long term holder, hedging or taking profits by top slicing was discussed at length). That's how we can help each other. Even the longs and the shorts can argue a case and help each other to profit from the folly. A sudden increase in posters is a foregone conclusion when there is a change in pattern.

I agree with you about buying and selling risk. If that was not the case, shares would not be traded at multiples of their worth. Relative to the economy, these shares have not exactly been trading on a high multiple. However, the company is not exactly a household brand name and the economy is being rerated. Things could be worse for KLR share holders but time will tell if the worst is to come. My shorts have virtually ended now as I see more opportunity elsewhere.

Good luck to you also

[rochdae] 09/1/2008 00:12

James Bond, I am not the 'great one' by any means, I've just tried to make the point that trading is not about buying companies but buying or selling 'risk'. People buying into KLR on a major market downturn imo are increasing risk, in the short term at least.

You cannot ignore the market on the basis of an accounting ratio, is all I was trying to say.

Good luck anyway,

Roch.

[janes bond] 08/1/2008 21:27

RE: Citigroup. How long after the problems with Northern Rock started to unfold did Citigroup come in with a downgrade?
Keller Groups shares have been falling since November 2007. After the price has fallen more than 40% they come in with a downgrade. They say the US economy is to blame.
Hands up posters here who could arrive at the same conclusion at this stage.
I wonder how experienced the analysts who put out these statements are?
I wouldn't be surprised if Keller continue to impress. My confidence in brokers is reduced constantly and they don't fail to amaze me.
A bad day stateside today. OOooooooerrrr

[aspex] 08/1/2008 18:08

Oh dear jimmy.
So they are going back to where they were when the turnover was about half of now? And EPS about a quarter?

[jimmy c] 08/1/2008 16:48

the market looks forwards not backwards, recession in US and these are a 200p stock - where they came from.

[fayde] 08/1/2008 13:18

I think Keller is a good company, though of recent this has been my worst trade. I was almost tempted back in but refrained from buying (glad I did) I would like to see it gain some stability in the share price but at the moment I think that is nothing more than wishful thinking. Not wishing to rely just on wishful thinking I remain just watching. I have no position atm.

[steeplejack] 08/1/2008 10:09

Hell of a downgrade.Chinesewall..............i agree the chart is signalling a possible low of 4 quid.I don't think it'll get there.Jimmyc.........good company MorganS.but very different to Keller,in some ways more stable actually and has been subject to bid rumours over recent months.Really a comparable company to Keller are Charter and Cookson.KLR don't have a landbank.

With this downgrade,Citigroup is signalling that the period of uninterrupted growth at Keller will end and hence the company will suffer the same sort of fate as Mr 20% ie Rentokil,remember that one?If the global economy suffers a hard landing ,i agree with Citcorp but i'm happy to hold Keller as part of a portfolio ie i hold much bigger slug of British American Tobacco and Imps etc.

KLR is a prime beneficiary of the growth of the BRIC economies.Those economies will have to have a very sharp slowdown for Citgroup's forecasts to unfold.

PS If the price goes to the 7 quid target,i'll make a good turn ,so there's no point selling is there.

[nickcduk] 08/1/2008 09:12

Looks like someone was in the know about todays broker downgrade. Would explain chunky selling yesterday afternoon. Its a pretty savage downgrade as well and a little pessimistic in my eyes. Where KLR goes in the short term will be dictated by whether or not other brokers follow suit. I have a feeling they are not far behind.

Citigroup downgrades Keller Group (KLR.LN) to hold from buy on the potential of an economic slowdown. Cuts '08 EPS forecast to 95.4p from 99.1p and '09 top 82.5p from 103.8p. Sees a further 10% downside to '09 EPS estimate in the event of a US recession and a 30% downside in a US and European recession. Says the group is cyclically exposed but notes it is protected by its wide geographical spread. Lowers price target to 700p from 1150p

[janes bond] 08/1/2008 08:53

rochdae - 8 Jan'08 - 02:20 - 566 of 567

"Not surprising 90% of traders don't make it in the markets over the long term."

Change that to: "Not surprising 90% of people don't make it to this thread over the long term. With posters like rochdae the wise one, who would want to?"

For the record, I know at least one of those posting here recently has been holding KLR for at least five years. It looks like rochdae is on an ego trip thinking he is the great one. Well, the posts have become more frequent because of the current siuation. Maybe he would prefer it to go back to how it was before. There are other bulletin boards and this one is not exactly friendly, as highlighted by the great rochdae. I very seldom hold anything, I just short sell.

Meanwhile, Mr anti social, who thinks bulletin boards are just for rochdae, get a life. You didn't start the thread.

[only who?] 08/1/2008 08:52

Johne1:

re. earlier post, I was thinking this about KLR long before Chineseetc popped up here, and sold out at a small loss a few weeks ago because of it. I still follow with interest, though, because I can't see why the price should be stuck down here just through 'tough market conditions'.

[stemis] 08/1/2008 08:42

To think this used to be a quiet board. I don't know why people get drawn into debates with shorters/de-rampers. There is nothing any of us can do here to influence the KLR share price/ Its a £375m company. The price isn't being driven by anyone on this board, it being driven by large institutions who either need to raise liquidity or who are taking a sectorial view of the market (don't want to be in US construction related stocks). Maybe some shorting is going on, but eventually shorters have to close.

Posters who talk about contract losses and financial irregularities are just baiting holders. They know no more than the poster who the night before the trading statement said this was an absolute knocking bet to issue a profits warning.

The biggest risk to this share is that some big construction company decides to make an 800p a share takeover offer and large shareholders want to take it. I don't think management would be so stupid to recommend it though.

[bottomguessing] 08/1/2008 07:07

well rochdae - unfortunately we don't all have the experience that you have, and i'm sure when you started trading you didn't make any mistakes and never lost a penny.

trying my best with the information i know.

[janes bond] 07/1/2008 23:30

Oh dear! There have been problems in the construction sector. I'm a bit surprised that this companies shares have been dragged down so deep in the turmoil though. I have rode the shares down so far but I've reduced my positions recently. Having looked over the company history and the solid figures, it seems to me that this company will itself become an acquisition target. I will be looking out for increases in volumes traded and try to be vigilant. The charts might paint a picture of the future and forewarn us of any changes in outlook before news arrives.

[johne1] 07/1/2008 22:56

Sorry Kev, I don't do guesstimates. I just hope I don't run out of underpants.

The picture is rather gloomy and the construction sector is, as always, at the heart of economic problems. As Keller have already fallen significantly, we could take some reassurance in the fact that the shares have retraced already.

Another company, in the construction sector, which I have been watching, is Persimon, (PSN). I fancy a few of those. I have them on my watch list and a presenter on the Five Live money program told me to watch them. They will, almost definitely, become cheaper, so I will hope to lock in a nice bunch later.

Here is another gloomy view from The Times: -

[bottomguessing] 07/1/2008 22:52

catch ya laters peeps.