Keller Share Discussion Threads

[jonwig] 24/10/2008 09:29

damanko - I guess I am still buying shares, or rather I'm spending £x each month with fund share plans (Resources, Japan) simply because I've no desire to try timing a bottom.

As for the market, I persist in the belief that there's an awful lot of distressed selling around (hedge fund troubles in the news today again, unit trust redemptions, etc.) which won't work its way through for a while yet.

EDIT: I see KLR is on a prospective yield of about 5% assuming a 21p divi for the year is fairly secure.

[damanko] 23/10/2008 22:28

Jonwig, SFR is also a concern to me, I've bought it for over a year - monthly, so including the tax rebate each month (ie it is in a SIPP), I'm only a little down over the year. In fact I'm happy to have picked up the shares at such a discount. Brave or foolish? We'll see. You'll have seen my comments on the SFR thread about a friend in the construction industry, I still believe all will turn out okay there, eventually. Eg Stratford 2012 will not be allowed to fail, and Severs is a major contractor there.

So ...... I've recently changed my monthly SIPP investment from SFR into Prudential. No doubt there is a thread or two on here for it, which in time I'll get around to reading. I thought about buying The Pru in 2003 when they were £3.50 ish & yielding over 5%. But didn't. Though these days, new management, as far as I can tell much more risk averse, and still a major player in the insurance market, in all its forms.

Ho hum. No idiot like a middle aged one. Still buying shares............... You too, I guess.

[jonwig] 23/10/2008 17:50

damanko - am inclined to agree.

KLR overrode earlier fears by pointing out that its reach was more global and less dependent on the US than previously. Also its contracts aren't generally so large and lumpy with big stock requirements.

SFR is a bigger concern for me (like you I hold both), as the gearing could impact in a prolonged slowdown, and it has big stocks to finance. Who knows, though, a dose of Keynes with a few hospials and schools could do the trick.

[jonwig] 23/10/2008 16:55

A steep fall in the ABI allegedly caused the sell-off here in Jan/Feb:

The Architecture Billings Index, an industry measure of the level of activity at architecture firms, has dropped for the first time this year, according to The American Institute of Architects. The index, according to AIA, serves as a "leading economic indicator that provides an approximately nine to twelve month glimpse into the future of nonresidential construction activity."

In other words, if architects aren't designing it now, it won't get built nine months down the road.

"With all of the anxiety and uncertainty in the credit market, the conditions are likely to get worse before they get better," said Kermit Baker, AIA's chief economist. "Many architects are reporting that clients are delaying or canceling projects as a result of problems with project financing."

More precisely, "the September ABI rating was 41.4, down sharply from the 47.6 mark in August (any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings). The inquiries for new projects score was 51.0. This is also the first time in 2008 that the institutional sector has fallen below the 50 mark."

The full release is below.

Architecture Billings Index Falls More than Six Points

Institutional sector enters negative category for the first time this year

Washington, D.C. – October 22, 2008 – Following three consecutive months of signs of greater stability in design activity, the Architecture Billings Index (ABI) fell precipitously, dropping more than six points. As a leading economic indicator of construction activity, the ABI shows an approximate nine to twelve month lag time between architecture billings and construction spending. The American Institute of Architects (AIA) reported the September ABI rating was 41.4, down sharply from the 47.6 mark in August (any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings). The inquiries for new projects score was 51.0. This is also the first time in 2008 that the institutional sector has fallen below the 50 mark.

"With all of the anxiety and uncertainty in the credit market, the conditions are likely to get worse before they get better," said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. "Many architects are reporting that clients are delaying or canceling projects as a result of problems with project financing."

Key September ABI highlights:

Regional averages:

Midwest (45.2)

West (45.0)

Northeast (44.2)

South (44.1)

Sector index breakdown:

mixed practice (45.9)

institutional (45.6)

commercial / industrial (42.1)

multi-family residential (40.3)

Project inquiries index: 51.0

About the AIA Architecture Billings Index

The Architecture Billings Index is derived from a monthly "Work-on-the-Boards" survey and produced by the AIA Economics & Market Research Group. Based on a comparison of data compiled since the survey's inception in 1995 with figures from the Department of Commerce on Construction Put in Place, the findings amount to a leading economic indicator that provides an approximately nine to twelve month glimpse into the future of nonresidential construction activity. The diffusion indexes contained in the full report are derived from a monthly survey sent to a panel of AIA member-owned firms. Participants are asked whether their billings increased, decreased, or stayed the same in the month that just ended. According to the proportion of respondents choosing each option, a score is generated, which represents an index value for each month.

About The American Institute of Architects

For over 150 years, members of the American Institute of Architects have worked with each other and their communities to create more valuable, healthy, secure, and sustainable buildings and cityscapes. By using sustainable design practices, materials, and techniques, AIA architects are uniquely poised to provide the leadership and guidance needed to provide solutions to address climate change. AIA architects walk the walk on sustainable design. Visit www.aia.org/walkthewalk.



Trading statement was on 20/12 last year.

[roughjustice] 27/9/2008 18:33

Paul Dolman-Darrall is my name, I am the private investor on the show. But I am not paid for participating. I just like to talk shares and mention the tips.

[liarspoker] 19/9/2008 20:11

Hmmmm....do you work for www.4wm.co.uk Roughjustice ?

[roughjustice] 19/9/2008 19:59

Tipped by the Naked Trader on

[magpie39] 06/9/2008 10:30

Well said jonwig. Dr Sondermann ended up holding 60,000 shares.

[jonwig] 06/9/2008 08:04

Saying that the chap "sold out" is stretching it a bit - in many cases where options are exercised, a proportion of the proceeds is sold to meet tax liabilities.

I suppose if you're a short-term trader, hopping about all the time, that's how it will appear to you.

[deadly] 05/9/2008 21:47

Has had a good run recently like other infrastructure stocks against the market. I sold out yesterday like the director. Though this is still a great company, it's no longer dirt cheap and could be time to switch into other stocks which are being hammered, like oilers and resources.

[royaloak] 28/7/2008 10:59

deadly, first time that I have looked at this company, and went long early on. we are in a bear market of course, but could not believe what value there is in this company. In this market I could well take my profits later today, depending on general market conditions, but this could be a big winner in future months IF the market does not continue heavily dowm imho!

[deadly] 28/7/2008 10:06

An amazing event: the share price has risen on good results! This must be the first time this has happened to a company in almost a year. Can it last for KLR though before it starts to slide?

[jonwig] 18/6/2008 12:33

June 4, 2008ABI Remains WeakSource: DHI Industry Watch

After sinking to its lowest level ever in March, indicating a rapid slowdown in billings at U.S. architecture firms, the Architecture Billings Index (ABI) rose slightly in April. As a leading economic indicator of construction activity, the ABI shows an approximate nine to twelve month lag time between architecture billings and construction spending. The American Institute of Architects (AIA) reported the April ABI rating was 45.5, up from the historic low mark of 39.7 in March (any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings). The inquiries for new projects score was 53.9.

"After dropping rapidly the past two months, this uptick shows that the slowdown is beginning to moderate," said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. "Even though the downturn in design billings has come on very quickly, most areas of the country aren't showing signs of an oversupply of nonresidential facilities. That provides hope that this weak patch may be relatively short-lived."

[damanko] 09/6/2008 10:56

ammons, I noticed the article in the FT at the weekend. Have put KLR on watch, with a view to adding monthly in a SIPP. However with this barmy market, even good stocks are getting pasted, so will merely wait a while before taking action. On the face of it though, John Lee makes a good point.

Noticed in a recent RNS that Barclays (nominees) have reduced their holding from 5% to 3%. Could be they got in years ago, so just profit taking. In fact if the banking sector keeps getting hammered we may see a good deal more of this type of institutional selling .......

[ammons] 09/6/2008 07:08

John Lee, the private (long term) investor who has had a column in the weekend FT for goodness knows how long wrote on 7 June that he has bought Keller @ 681p. "All I have done so far is acquire an initial holding in Kellar, the ground engineering/foundation specialist, at 681p. To be able to buy into a world class leader in its field on a PER of 7, record order books, etc etc etc, seemed to me to be excellent sense." Nice vote of confidence from Mr. Lee to is a very conservative long term buy holder.

[puffintickler] 13/5/2008 07:46

I agree, very positive IMS that restricts the negative news to the housing sector, by rights the share price should react very positively but sentiment may well hold things back.

[jonwig] 13/5/2008 07:22

Interim Management Statement today reads very positive.
Slowdown in residential work (eg. Suncoast) no worse than expected:



BTW, I see first RNSs are out at 6:00 am now. (Yawn!)

[aspex] 24/4/2008 09:13

So what is screwing the price?

[hectorp] 09/4/2008 11:46

strong recent performance. On my 'recovery' Folio.

[deadly] 02/4/2008 12:56

Catching up with the sector a bit these last two days. But still very cheap. Been great for trading recently. XD at end of month

[qs9] 02/4/2008 10:26

Seems to be on a roll in the last week....anyone care to guess why?

[stemis] 25/3/2008 22:05

I think its clear that Keller may struggle to grow much in the US in the short term and may even see profits slide. However looking at operating profit growth over the last couple of years:- 2005 2006 2007
UK -0.3 3.4 3.8
Europe, Middle East & Asia 12.7 17.9 30.4
Australia 1.8 7.0 14.7
Central items -3.2 -3.1 -3.1
Outside North America 11.0 25.2 45.8
North America 42.1 64.1 61.6
Continuing operations 53.1 89.3 107.4Growth has been particularly strong outside North America. Infrastructure investment continues to be strong in the Middle East and Asia. Even if the North America operating profit dropped to, say, £45-50M, its quite possible that 'Outside North America' could deliver £55-60M+. Together with share buybacks that could see EPS grow by 0-10%. That would give an EPS of around 97-105p (current consensus forecast is 96.3p).

In the following year any further weakness in North America could well be offset by growth in Middle East and Asia. Longer term I see the basis for strong infrastructure investment and Keller to pick up the trend of growth. In the meantime Keller can use its strong cashflow to pick up cheap bargains in the US market, buyback its shares and grow its dividend.

So a year or two of flat EPS, followed by continuation of growth. Does this justify a P/E little over 7? Not in my opinion.

[deadly] 25/3/2008 11:20

Well KLR has refuted the bad news above by a huge rise today, along with the housebuilders this time.
After all, no matter what the short term industrial outlook, there is a price at which all that has been discounted and surely that has been reached