Keller Share Discussion Threads

[rochdae] 03/3/2009 15:27

Big if. Decline in the general market seems more than likely.

[royaloak] 03/3/2009 14:50

pugugly
Opened my long this morning, had not seen the article mentioned, so closed and took my profits. I would not have kept it open overnight though, always nervous to do that in this climate. So thanks for the information.
Best of luck to everyone else, it still looks good value and could have a good run if the markets hold.

[pugugly] 03/3/2009 14:00

Mentioned in FT today that Keller were still waiting to be paid for sums outstanding on the Palm Island development in Dubai.

Headline in FT is that defaults in Dubai will cost developers $ 25 BILLION.

This may be what has spooked the market - Not only a potential loss but a dried up pipeline.

[deswalker] 03/3/2009 11:31

Using T/O of 1100 and Op Margin of 9.2% my spreadsheet throws out 92p eps and a PE of exactly 5. That feels very conservative to me so I'll stick with it and look for the green shoots. It ought to be trading around double this level ie on an EBITDA/EV of 19% cf cash at 2%. A 17% spread to cash is still high (most thought a 11-12% spread was a good deal a few years back) but the risk premium is clearly going to be wider going forward.

[royaloak] 03/3/2009 11:28

Agree crazy price, even taking debt into consideration pe is still less than 6, so have done a bit of bottom fishing this morning, long with a spread. Surely at 450 risk reward is excellent?

However will stop out if it goes below 445 because anything is possible in these markets.

[deswalker] 03/3/2009 10:43

A startling reaction to the results. If they did a currency adjusted eps of 138p in 08 then 90p must be easily doable this year. That's a PE of 5. If they manage 110p then that's 4.

Will we ever see a return to sane investing again I wonder ? It doesn't feel like it.

[deswalker] 02/3/2009 10:50

SteMiS - cheers for doing the legwork. An excellent post.

[stemis] 02/3/2009 08:50

Yes, see my post on TMF

[jonwig] 02/3/2009 08:37

Good point, DesW!

[deswalker] 02/3/2009 08:28

Worth noticing they're based on £$ = 1.86 and £€ = 1.26. Major currency benefits coming this year.

[jonwig] 02/3/2009 08:20

Market hasn't taken much of a shine to the FY results, excellent though they are:



I suppose it was unpleasantly surprised by the outlook, which pointed to a slowdown in orders??

[jonwig] 24/1/2009 09:48

Hayward Baker launches new Wick Drain division:



What's a Wick Drain? ...

[jonwig] 14/1/2009 09:16

KLR's acquisition strategy and attitudes:

[jonwig] 03/12/2008 06:34

In a sign that the nonresidential real estate market hasn't yet reached bottom, the Architecture Billings Index (ABI), dropped to its lowest level since the American Institute of Architects (AIA) launched the survey in 1995.

Designed to serve as an economic indicator of construction activity, the ABI rating for October plummeted to 36.2, down significantly from the 41.4 mark in September. Any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings.

The inquiries for new projects score was 39.9, also a historic low point, the AIA says.

"Until recently, the institutional sector had been somewhat insulated from the deteriorating conditions affecting the commercial and residential markets," says AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker. "Now we are seeing that governments and nonprofit agencies are having difficulties getting bonds approved to finance large scale education and healthcare facilities, furthering the weak conditions across the construction industry."



Parts of the Middle-East not looking too bright either - KLR will have a struggle on its hands.

[hectorp] 14/11/2008 08:23

Morning j
I bought some in the 490's. The situation looks pretty decent , and the chart is also improving. But its not all flavour of the month from ysterday's sell off from the early rise. I'll keep my position fairly light.

[jonwig] 14/11/2008 07:27

Hectorp - I'm pleased I wasn't sucked in to adding by the early morning spike yesterday.

On US work, they are diversifying away from that to an extent, but should pick up work if there are lots of infrastructure projects coming on stream. The sell-off at the end of last year was largely driven by fears of US construction (non-housing) slowdown as measured by the ABI's index.

[hectorp] 13/11/2008 22:24

US markets up 559 tonight should help this in the morning.

[hectorp] 13/11/2008 09:08

Note the considerable upside in sterling conversion when reporting US profits! I take it that there is quite a large prcentage of work undertaken in the US.

[hectorp] 13/11/2008 08:57

Oh johnwig I'd like to have read THAT an hour ago but was indisposed.. !

Tuck a few away - was oversold.. could have a further rally into results in December.. top end of expectations..
H.

[jonwig] 13/11/2008 07:19

IMS this morning, very confident:

Trading in the period has remained very strong. We have continued to see good
organic growth, particularly in Eastern Europe, Middle East and Australia,
demonstrating the benefits of the Group's geographic diversification.

In light of this strong current trading, the Board now expects to report record
results for the year as a whole, around the top end of market expectations.




And a couple of acquisitions:

[gswredland] 07/11/2008 18:54

Hi Liarspoker
Notice you on the thread here. Do you mind me asking if you own these?

[jonwig] 07/11/2008 08:52

Bugs - there was a similar article in yesterday's Telegraph (I can't find an online link, I'm afraid) which highlighted the sorry state of over 200,000 bridges in the US.
That sort of work would keep KLR busy for a while.

[bugs22] 04/11/2008 09:54

I have not folowed Keller for awhile now but as was mentioned in the main business article in the Times yesterday it seems fairly certian that if Obama wins the Democrats will push a spending stimulus ($150bn has been mentioned) through the retiring Congress which will focus on infastructure spending and local gov budgets (as opposed to tax cuts). Democrat economists have said thet have identified at least $100bn worth of road, bridge and sewer programs which would be ready to go within three months. These projects would have the benefit of providing employment to the many tens or hundreds of thousands of construction workers laid off by the housing slump as well as improving basic infastructure which has been well under invested for many years. As Obama spoke about recently in a speech the US is in danger of falling behind to the likes of China who are spending humungous amounts to lay the foundations of a 21st century infastruture which is an important factor when multi-national companies decide where to invest in the future.