Keller Share Discussion Threads

[newb1] 26/3/2012 07:45

another contract win!

[redips2] 20/2/2012 16:00

come on my beauties!

[redips2] 20/2/2012 07:58

so that's why----another contract win .

[redips2] 17/2/2012 16:09

ever so good today guys and guyetts.

[redips2] 17/2/2012 14:41

ooooow! feel like man Friday :)

[puffintickler] 17/2/2012 13:22

Not entirely alone, but almost.

[redips2] 16/2/2012 16:34

Still on my own to enjoy a good day with KLR :)

[redips2] 02/2/2012 08:59

Slowly, catchy,, monkey (all on my own) He He!

[redips2] 19/1/2012 15:14

Looking even better---good again.

[puffintickler] 13/1/2012 13:09

Quite a significant contract. 12% of annual revenue and 50% of the Australian business which should be greatly boosted. Spread over three years of course. but hopefully this order will be followed by more...

[redips2] 13/1/2012 12:56

Looking better---good

[nw99] 13/1/2012 07:13

Nice contract win today !!

[nw99] 10/1/2012 15:39

Stock on the move today any reason ?

[jonwig] 15/11/2011 12:38

Lifted from Alphaville, Panmure comment:

Another profit warning from Keller is not going to help the share price! The
main reasons appear to be Australia, with an element of one-off contract
losses. Assuming these are swiftly resolved, then confidence may return to
the shares. The support of the dividend, on greatly reduced earnings, is now
in doubt.

IMS update. Another disappointing update from Keller as its mature markets remain difficult and growth market is only offering better opportunities in the medium term. It has flagged that, while revenue is in line with market expectations, the PTP range is likely to be £21-23m, so c35% below current market expectations.

Divisional. The US is likely to see revenue and profit ahead of last year's performance, although market conditions remain competitive, with margins at historically low levels.
In Europe, Poland is performing well but other markets are difficult. The group has seen increased competition in Asia, while the Middle East is unchanged. In Australia the resources sector remains strong but non-resources are tough. This has been compounded by some problem contracts. The small UK market is extremely difficult.

Impact on forecasts. There is a conference call at 0900 when we will firm up numbers but, clearly, our PTP has to fall from its current £34.5m to c£22m. Where it goes next year depends on what levels of one-off hits are in the FY 2011E numbers. The big question now is on the dividend and whether its can be sustained at current levels, with new EPS likely to be around the historic dividend level (22.8p).

[salpara111] 15/11/2011 10:53

The divi is unsustainable, most companies like to have coverage of circa 2.5X earnings which would mean a cut of at least 60%

SP is bouncing back strongly but I really dont see any point in being in this company for another 6-12 months as we do not appear to be seeing the shoots of recovery in any of its core markets.

[stevemarkus] 15/11/2011 09:58

No, I don't hold - sold out a long time ago now. But, looking at the IMS, I would not be very positive. Looking at the range of earnings they suggest, I had thought of EPS perhaps 24-25p per share, but the dividend is predicted to be 22p per share. So hardly covered and leaves very little for reinvestment in the business. If I was them I would be cutting the dividend, particularly given the statement regarding conservative use of cash in the IMS. So I would not currently be a buyer, and would certainly wait until after the results, when I would expect a cut to the dividend.

Cheers,
Steve.

[stemis] 15/11/2011 08:49

More like a P/E of 10 now!

I bought my first shares in Keller in June 2005 at 216.5p when it was on a P/E of 9, looking for an exit price of £3+



I haven't held any for quite a while but I'd be interested again if I thought the bottom in trading had been reached. At the moment there seems to be decent levels of work around, but its the margin which is the concern.

[jonwig] 15/11/2011 07:52

Another IMS this morning:



with FY PBT to come in below expectations at £21m-23m. Currently the forecast seems to be PBT of £33m and eps of 35p.

So maybe eps of 27p (hard to work out more precisely) gives a PER of 13x. Not bad if you expect an early return to growth, but they say not. Also the dividend (23p expected) has to be at some risk.

(In 1994 it listed at 135p on ~14x earnings, and I took part in the IPO.)

[redips2] 28/10/2011 14:00

Or something is afoot !

[redips2] 28/10/2011 13:10

Well well----I think the penny has at last dropped here.

[jonwig] 17/10/2011 14:04

2011 2012
PBT(£m) eps(p) div(p) PBT(£m) eps(p) div(p)
Panmure Gordon
14-10-11 HOLD 34.50 36.90 22.80 42.00 45.00 24.00
The Royal Bank of Scotland NV
10-10-11 BUY 31.04 35.31 22.80 41.96 45.47 23.30

[jonwig] 17/7/2011 15:54

KLR looks to be massively sensitive to activity in the US and the current stand-off re debt ceiling.

If Republicans get what they want, spending cuts would bear the brunt; Democrats want a mixture of tax rises and spending cuts. Either way, the crumbling US infrastructure won't be fixed soon.

Nobody in the US seems interested in the PPI/PFI model, which is used in Canada. That would be a big boost for KLR but I've never seen it mentioned.

[salpara111] 17/7/2011 14:19

I would potentially re-invest but would need to see the share price drop closer to the 400 line before I would jump back on board.

[jonntara] 15/7/2011 11:08

If that happens I will get a few more - doesn't change the business fundamentals - but understand where you're coming from.