Keller Share Discussion Threads

[bottomguessing] 04/1/2008 12:53

Thanks for the kind words Johne1. and your right in what you say.

I'm very logical, did research, look at fundamentals and all the other bits directors deals, finanicals, forecasts, news etc but there's no logic to it sometimes.

Theres to much corruption, shorting etc for my liking. you could pick a great company that ticks all the boxes but the weight of shorting can kick any stock down. Was kind of you to write a reply and i wish you the all the best in trading.

good luck

[johne1] 04/1/2008 12:44

Cheers bottomguessing - everyone has bad luck, so don't beat yourself up about it. I agree that if it doesn't suit you and you don't enjoy it, you should throw the towel in. However, if I were you, I wouldn't watch the shares you were holding. We've all bought something in the high street, only to go next door and find that we could have bought it cheaper!

Sorry to read that you have lost out. The markets are not forgiving and are not exactly behaving.

It is a shame that we are going to lose someone who is up front and honest about their dealings. My eyes are welling up :-)

All the best with whatever you do.

Meanwhile, for those good at guessing the directions here, KLR is a good trading share. I would prefer to leave that to the professionals though. Perhaps those guessing with other folks money will be less scared to trade the swings.

Cheers

[bottomguessing] 04/1/2008 12:35

Good luck everyone, i'm out 6.335p

Can't stomach it. In all honesty i don't think i'm cut out for this trading, starting to affect my life, constantly thinking about shares, making me very unhappy. Also i earn good money but have been letting my work slip.

Get grumpy with my girlfriend and had enough, a happy life is more important. Sorry to ramble on but i'm very frustrated at myslef and my greed. ah well

I have £12,753 of an intial £20,000 left. very bad investing but lesson learn't.

Good luck everyone and hopefully KLR will be one of many of your fortunes.

[steeplejack] 04/1/2008 11:23

That's how i see it.The market is looking well into 2009/10 and a reduced order book.Now things might slow,they are slowing,US housing starts have fallen off a cliff.Indeed the reduction in housing starts has mitigated against further weakening in US house prices as written in an FT article yesterday. This is known but Keller aren't exactly moaning.They're not that big in the US residential anyway. The Pacific region might slow but not by much.Europe could be a drag.Anyway,investors won't take anything for granted,so i guess we've just got to wait for the results and a further trading update and then another update.....update...

[jonwig] 04/1/2008 11:07

Some thoughts:

• High operational gearing means that construction-related companies will trade on low P/E multiples at the best of times. KLR was floated at 130p in (?)1995 on a historic P/E of around 14×, which was a bit rich for the sector.

• CRH gave a very upbeat trading statement yesterday, and Kingspan did not long ago. Both are on pretty cheap ratings, though not as low as this one.

• The only fundamental things that I can think of are (i) the market is already factoring in a construction cycle slowdown in 2009 which could lead to lower profits then, (ii) the company is a fraud.

• As for share buy-backs, the company has the facility lined up (10% max, I think). Lots don't even have a provision for this.

Whatever, I bought my third lot this morning at under 610p. Since I can afford to pay for them - and add again, as opportunity arises - I don't mind more short-term weakness.

[steeplejack] 04/1/2008 10:57

General expectation over there,got from Bloomberg.

In the last 10 years, Keller has delivered compound annual growth rates in sales and operating profit of 22% and 15% respectively, through a combination of organic growth and acquisitions. Today, trading under five well-known local brand names: Hayward Baker, Case, McKinney Drilling, Suncoast and Anderson Drilling; it has leading positions in established European markets; it is the number one player in Australia; and has a strong profile in Asia and the emerging European markets.

This company is so international ,i fail to understand why it's being treated like a UK constuction company.It's a specialist engineering company.Mind you,Charter and Cookson have been beaten up of late.

[bottomguessing] 04/1/2008 10:47

wheres the info from Steeplejack?

[steeplejack] 04/1/2008 10:45

Jan 30th,Fed expected to cut rates

[bottomguessing] 04/1/2008 10:44

reckon we've had some shorts closing!

[nigelpm] 04/1/2008 10:41

bottomguessing - I tend to stay away from macro issues to be honest.

[bottomguessing] 04/1/2008 10:31

Wish i had the capital to do the same.

Do you see it sheding much if the FTSE drops 100+ that's my concern, with the index being held up by oil stocks, and the inflation risk higher it's not likely they'll lower rates next week and the FTSE will fall? what re your thoughts?

[nigelpm] 04/1/2008 10:27

two tranches. One around 680p and the other 660p.

There might well be another buy if we see the 500's.

[bottomguessing] 04/1/2008 10:24

where did you get in nigelpm, honestly?

[nigelpm] 04/1/2008 10:22

I'll hold till I make decent money and/or value is outed.

[hywel] 04/1/2008 10:19

Damn i've been waiting for 600p or as close as but i've been in bed with the flu and now its back to 625p, might wait again.

[bottomguessing] 04/1/2008 09:48

Are you a long term holder nigelpm?

[nigelpm] 04/1/2008 09:41

Amazing how many people panic when shares go down!

In reality you should be pleased you are able to buy at these prices.

[bottomguessing] 04/1/2008 09:26

I still think the company is in great shape (positive update 20th december)

"Keller Group said it has continued to trade
strongly in the second half and accordingly it expects results for the year to
end-December to be slightly ahead of market expectations."

awaiting results in 2 months.

With such a low volume of shares being traded this is an easy short target, unless we get resistance buying it can fall further. I've put some heavy duty pants on and turning my screen off until next month.

There where circa 640k shares traded yeaterday, circa £4 mln quids worth. Doesn't need a big fund to short and sell a stock like this down as like yesterday 7%+

With results in 2 months and big swings i've been weighting up wether to sell and buy back later, but risk missing any upturn which can be quick. The fate is in the hands of the shorters and when they decided to go the other way.

Logic would suggest with the FTSE & Oil high, and sentiment against this sector why would they close and buy in yet. At the same time could see the Dow start making gains and interest rate cuts!

good luck all, need to crack on with the day job!

[rochdae] 04/1/2008 09:01

bottomguessing, welcome to the club of painful lessons.

Will buy back some KLR nearer results, probably the day before if the market/ sector remains so unstable. Same for Chtr.

[only who?] 04/1/2008 08:57

Sold out of KLR before Xmas for small loss because I can't help thinking that there must be a reason for a price falling 40-50% in a few months. Good luck to holders with titanium gonads, but I wouldn't be surprised to see it down to 500p soon.

[bottomguessing] 04/1/2008 08:54

Made a school boy error yesterday and averaged down with funds i didn't have available. Lost my nerve and sold thoses shares for a £350 loss! another lesson learn't.

Need £6.92 to breakeven, long term hold for these then!

With such low volume, this is a shorters dream!

good luck everyone

[bottomguessing] 04/1/2008 07:41

Each time we have hit the range of 620p in the last month we've managed to bonuce back up to the 680 - 700p range within a few days. The short term fate is in the hands of shorters and the weight of them of that.

Long term holders will prevail but turbulant times.

[johne1] 03/1/2008 23:00

Digging deep: -

Keller Group (KLR:LSE) set a new 52-week low during today's trading session when it reached 605.00. Over this period, the share price is down 29.60%.

From the Financial Times.

Don't some traders look for companies that reach 12 month lows? - It must ring bells somewhere. Maybe potential predators might start to take a look. Fundamentally, there is nothing wrong with the company. In fact, the company has a habit of putting out upbeat news against all odds.

Also, the FTSE250 index was the faller today - off almost 110 points. I don't know if that information is relevant but, slightly interesting, nevertheless.

[bottomguessing] 03/1/2008 21:55

07 08
Institution Date Rating PBT EPS PBT EPS

Altium* 27 Nov Buy 96.7 92.2 105.4 99.3
Citigroup 02 Oct Buy 82.9 87.2 105.5 99.1
Dresdner Kleinwort 11 Dec Buy 90.7 82.4 99.1 92.7
Kaupthing Singer & Friedlander 23 Oct - 89.2 84.2 97.0 90.0
Oriel* 22 Nov Buy 93.1 87.2 94.4 88.5
Panmure Gordon 19 Dec Buy 91.9 85.1 103.0 95.7

Consensus 90.7 86.4 100.7 94.2

Market Cap 412mln - Profit Circa 90mln! Results March 3rd

Incredible this is this low!