Kefi Gold And Copper Share Discussion Threads

[matthew stone] 06/4/2020 09:21

Amazing that FOURTEEN q&as have been posted in the last few days, yet not one addresses the elephant in the room i.e. funding of working capital!

To put it in simple terms, assuming c1.4b shares in issue we will be diluted by around 7% for every month ANS do not cough up. (This is assuming we can raise at 0.5p, so need around 1m shares per month.)

So assuming nothing happens now for 6 months, we could be at around 2 BILLION shares.

Harry waffled on about numerators and NPVs recently - well 2 billion is the figure I have been using for some weeks to determine whether this is still a good investment or not...on my timeline (5yrs+) I believe it still can be, but ymmv!

[taxlosstone] 06/4/2020 09:13

Thanks for posting the Q&A comments, rob. Looks like the usual froth that accompanies a fund-raising RNS but nothing new in itself to RNS about.

Guess they can't have had any questions on when the ANS money will arrive otherwise, in the spirit of transparency, they'd have answered them. :-(

[bejubiant] 06/4/2020 09:12

Agreed CH.
When you turn up to play the 'action & results' game and do not act in a way that delivers results... you're dead in the water really.End of.

[matthew stone] 06/4/2020 09:08

Looks like co are now attempting to redirect shareholders' attention to Saudi, and away from TK for the time being....

[robjm66] 06/4/2020 09:07

hxxps://www.wordnik.com/words/stockwork hxxps://miningdataonline.com/property/3397/Jabal-Sayid-Mine.aspx

[chopper harris1] 06/4/2020 09:03

Bejubiant,

Correct, I don't see receipt of any ANS funds before May. In fact, I don't see receipt of any ANS funds before June....or July....or August....or September, even.

Of course, I hope I'm wrong but it's very difficult to adopt a more positive outlook based on past experience.

Something is not right with this whole ANS business and it's just being allowed to drag on and on and on. I think Harry is just hoping and waiting for something positive to turn up and appears to be able to do little else other than keep kicking the can further along the road until something positive might just turn up.

The big problem is that money has to be found in order to be in a position to keep kicking the aforementioned can. Half a million quid every month. Quite depressing, really. How much longer is this situation going to be allowed to continue before something, anything, is done to either progress the situation or attempt to cut costs before any positive progression might actually occur?

[robjm66] 06/4/2020 09:02

From kefi Q and A page.

Various questions regarding KEFI's projects in Saudi Arabia

Q: When is any definite decision likely to be made in Saudi regarding Hawiah mine construction?

We started drilling at Hawiah in September 2019 and target a maiden resource mid-2020.

Q: What is the likely timeline from this point to first pour at Hawiah?

A fast track outcome could be 2 years to start development plus 2 years construction, compared with the global average closer to 15 years.

In the meantime, we would progress maiden resource, Preliminary Economic Assessment, resource expansion, reserve reporting, feasibility studies, permits, finance. These are capable of being more rapid for Hawiah in Saudi Arabia compared with Tulu Kapi in Ethiopia.

Q: What is the upside at Hawiah?

The resource (similar style to nearby Al Masane mine) is likely to keep growing because it remains open at depth plus there is the oxidised zone to consider and the stockwork zone (looking for something like nearby Jabal Sayid copper mine) which has not been located yet.

Q: What are the plans for Jibal Qutman?

Jibal Qutman is stuck in the local regulatory overhaul. Its potential value seems perhaps overtaken by Hawiah.

Q: What’s Hawiah worth?

- we have made what appears a significant discovery at Hawiah but don’t yet know how big it is or what it might be worth
- we have drill-confirmed that the structure is straightforward with 45 drillholes over 4km laterally but at this stage drilled only down to about 250m depth
- the in-situ value of metal content is already greater than Tulu Kapi and the structure is open at depth
- we need to get many more assays in to be sure of grade and the distribution thereof


So it is too early to do NPV’s. but we expect to report a maiden resource mid-year and trigger and independent preliminary economic assessment.

Posted 06 April 2020

[topicel] 06/4/2020 08:59

Well said Bejubiant.

Note how you get few tick ups compared with some who lick Harry's rear and say he's doing an incredible job delivering value and in trying circumstances these last four-five years.

And before?

Either way, good luck with salary cuts; Harry will say he has created value and it's not his fault the CV-19 turned up to thwart him. Like the footballers, he'll say that will be bad for the tax man!

Ultimately though, I and a few others have been saying much the same for 2-plus years and no-one acts against HAA. He has us where he wants us, he simply says the 'lights won't stay on' if we don't vote through another half billion shares. There is method in his madness, and across AIM generally, and ALL who back him and similar Madoff-types are simply hangers on and probably on the pay roll.

Roger Howe spends his time batting away genuine queries directly to the company these last so many years 50% of the time and the other half also masquerades as posters here and elsewhere. Some AIM companies used to post directly from the boardroom!

The lack of honesty while say how communicative they are is what gets me most. We all accept AIM is 'nervous nellie' playground but the misleading and lies no-one should tolerate.

What do you think will happen when the warrants miss?

Topicel

[bejubiant] 06/4/2020 08:56

More unsubstantiated, whimsical and banal drivel unfortunately TLS..
Sadly for us, share prices are driven by action and results.

[taxlosstone] 06/4/2020 08:45

the charmer

I agree that value will take some time to recover. I believe that any recovery would be kick-started by the receipt of ANS's contractual obligation. I don't agree that it's a case of bad timing because they've had 20 months to pay up. Although Covid 19 is catastrophic it shouldn't have been an issue in the receipt of monies because that should have taken place many, many months ago.

By the way, what do you mean by "These are unprecedented times and I am sure that the appropriate measures will be taken"? Are you talking Kefi specific & if so, what measures are you alluding to? TIA.

[the charmer] 06/4/2020 07:42

Value has been eroded unfortunately and will take some time to recover. It is also a case of bad timing with the recent event and with no sign of diminishing anytime soon.

These are unprecedented times and I am sure that the appropriate measures will be taken.

Keep safe.

[bejubiant] 06/4/2020 07:13

..a consolidation is hard to comprehend, if it is a mechanism to firstly allow the BOD to attain yet more shares cheaply (via warrants kicking in) followed by a further capital raising/dilution exercise to sustain frankly unjustifiably big salaries and expenses, in lieu of very, very little identifiable progress (none proven on the ground and none proven via monies due to pay for subscribed shares). Personally I didn’t get 3 months + to find the cash when I committed to buy my shares, it was “there and then” or get lost.

A consolidation would be seen/understood for what it was by ALL investors. The world is not that big a place.

Chopper H, your note suggests you don’t see any ANS funds in before May, because if the c. $9m did arrive (no doubt accompanied by a fanfare and EG wanting to get max pre-election points via spinning) then the share price would very likely be north of 2p by some margin.

Looking at the current situation two things sensibly need to happen in short order:
1) The BOD need to recognise that presiding over a consistently diminishing share price should not be rewarded. If they are (as they will be) sitting at home waiting for the world to reconvene, then they need to cut their cloth accordingly. I have no problem with rewarding tangible success via increasing shareholder value. I have a big problem with rewarding those presiding directly over a death spiral of shareholder value. It’s appalling.
Secondly.. stakeholders need to pay for their shares promptly. Not at some indeterminate point of time in the future when they’ve had a whip round.. that too is appalling.
We need to see some basic humanity here and we need to see some decent and timely commercial behaviour.
A “cloth cutting” announcement by the board and a “cheque book FINALLY out, sorry everyone for arsing about for ages” announcement by ANS.
Come on guys, this is BASIC stuff..
Then we do see > 2p a share through legitimate and proper means and all investors have something to look forward to, other than a conveyor belt of meaningless waffle, delay on delay and a resulting, extended disappointment.

[chopper harris1] 04/4/2020 11:46

Pretty much academic, really, because there is absolutely no chance whatsoever that the share price will be anywhere near 2p by the end of April.

Unless there's a consolidation, of course, but that wouldn't really count.

[bejubiant] 04/4/2020 01:22

Looking back at the RNS relating to the warrants I can clearly see the requirement for a share price of 2p on/before 30th April as a prerequisite.
What I cannot see is anything relating to the 2p share price having to be exceeded for 5 days?
Could you please advise where this is conditioned?
Thanks

[keelhauled] 03/4/2020 17:28

Well; I am a long time, and I mean a long time Kefi investor and I will stand up in support of Harry. I have for the passed twenty three years done business in West Africa. My experience is that, it is not easy, not easy at all. In fact, it is very difficult. Many projects never get off the ground, never come to fruition. I respect Harry's tenacious character, he understands his business and that will ensure our success. Investors have chosen to invest in a business based in Africa. You are lucky to have Harry at the helm. Don't forget, shareholders can always bailout - Keelhauled

[keelhauled] 03/4/2020 17:27

Well; I am a long time, and I mean a long time investor Kefi and I will stand up in support of Harry. I have for the passed twenty three years done business in West Africa. My experience is that, it is not easy, not easy at all. In fact, it is very difficult. Many projects never get off the ground, never come to fruition. I respect Harry's tenacious character, he understands his business and that will ensure our success. Investors have chosen to invest in a business based in Africa. You are lucky to have Harry at the helm. Don't forget, shareholders can always bailout - Keelhauled

[jaylett] 03/4/2020 17:15

It isn't a loan; it's an unconditional subscription to settle a legally binding investment that they have already committed to. They can't just hide behind the sofa and pretend not to be in when we ask for the money.

[robjm66] 03/4/2020 17:03

From Oldi LSE kefi board.

Hopefully Kefi/TKGM will be the second PPP......

April 3, 2020

The Government of Ethiopia has signed a deal with French infrastructure development company for the purchase of geothermal energy from the $800 million energy project of the company.

Meridiam of France has inked deal with the government of Ethiopia this week to sell the geothermal energy its is going to produce from the Tulu Moye geothermal prospect site is located in Oromia Region of Ethiopia. The deal is the biggest in the country’s history of energy purchase. Up until the government revised its policy a few years ago, energy production has been monopolized by the government.

When the project begins production of geothermal energy, it will play key role in energy security of the country and contributes to the development of the country, according to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. It is one of the first mega public private partnership (PPP) projects in Ethiopia to go operational after the country introduced PPP and opens the energy sector for the private sector and foreign investors.

“This is the first PPP to enter such a stage here. Geothermal enhances our energy security by providing constant output power to support industrialization & continued economic growth,” Prime Minister Abiy twitted.

The power purchase agreement was initially signed in December 2017 when the French company enters the energy market of the country. IT IS stated that the French company aims to produce 150 megawatts of electricity in two phases from geothermal. The construction of the project and first phase of 50 megawatts electricity production of energy is expected to be completed in 2023.

“Proud to support Ethiopia in its development. The acceleration of investment in sustainable energy will be key to fight COVID-19 economic shock and job creation,” twitted Thierry Déau, CEO of Meridiam and Founding Partner.

The construction is being implemented by Tullu Moye Geothermal Operations Private Limited Company and the drilling work will be done by Kenya Generation from the neighboring Kenya.

[robjm66] 03/4/2020 16:58

Think Ethiopia learnt from other countries and bought in measures early so likely to have less cases per head of population than most. I should think they will have an idea how the outbreak is likely to play out there within a few weeks.

[scrappycat] 03/4/2020 16:52

Given the unknown duration of the covid outbreak, the English banks have, apparently, been showing a marked reluctance to lend the money sought by business users. This, despite the instructions from the UK government to adopt a more helpful approach, and the provision of hundreds of millions of funds provided by the central government for this purpose. Would it be so surprising that the ANS have adopted a similar view?

Of course, I know not myself, but I do consider it a possibility. After all, Kefi are severely limited in what they can do with that the funding money whilst Lockdown is in force virtually globally, and including Ethiopia.

[robjm66] 03/4/2020 16:23

Topical I would prefer the election to be ruse or excuse to buy a bit of time than a cause for any concern as then Kefi has the option to totally decouple its schedule from the election schedule so hope you are right. Think it is a bit of concern though how much is hard to tell without having in depth knowledge of Ethiopian politics and the backers of the project attitude towards them.

Kefi admit in its answer “The banks merely need to see law and order in the lead-up to and the immediate aftermath.” (of the election). Mind you if the country is in lockdown already would guess that will help with law and order also would expect local banks to be less inclined to cold feet than international banks.

Not overly concerned if there is a new government as they will want the mine to go ahead as much as the present one.

[mab] 03/4/2020 15:26

"The banks merely need to see law and order in the lead-up to and the immediate aftermath"

[mab] 03/4/2020 15:23

From the rns's, signed agreements have been made with the gov / ANS but its the major african banks who have issue with the elections. Nothing being signed with them which is an issue as there putting up half the debt finance.