Kbc Adv.Tech. Share Discussion Threads

[bakunin] 14/5/2015 11:30

There's not much resistance above these levels.
In fact, there is the support of the distribution that has taken place out of the hands of the PIs who temporarily joined the party last year when they were told to do so (tongue-in-cheek) and into the hands of Kongsberg (5% at 115), the placing at 115 and accumulation by Kestrel over the last 6 months.
Who is there left to sell in the absence of bad news?
Hence, a slow rise.

[bakunin] 13/5/2015 11:25

Gargoyle2
The problem is that patterns like double bottoms are old hat now and the in-crowd take advantage of those that have been on Technical Analysis courses via fakeouts, whip-saws etc ie they play on them by introducing noise which will take out the stop-losses that everybody has been taught they must put on with every trade.
Something like Elliott Waves is more inherent in the psychology of the markets and can be combined with eg fundamental analysis to get good swing trading results with a larger time frame.
Having said that, the double bottom you see would fit in nicely with the 4th wave bottom trade range, ie confirmation by more than one tool.
The problem is that it is a bit obvious, so we need to watch out for the in-crowd's tactics.
I'm in with a view to holding for a while, so they can create all the noise they want. The fundamentals will win out with my time frame.

[gargoyle2] 13/5/2015 11:04

I'm no chartist, but it looks like a big double bottom to me. A nice 'W' shape since the high last summer, could be heading back there imo.

DYOR obviously. I'm long here, so obviously biased.

[gargoyle2] 13/5/2015 11:02

100k trade at 106 just gone through. Someone likes these imo.

[bakunin] 13/5/2015 10:51

P.S. the fundamentals fully back up the Elliott wave pattern.
I mean fundamentals from the p.o.v. of plausible strategic direction and financial strength ie future earnings and not necessarily current P/E

[ca5hworth] 12/5/2015 21:52

The trend is up since 2002, seems to play with the 20 levels, but has broken key 80 in 2014, now 100. Am holding mainly as trend is up. Agree with gargoyle averaging up in a good share is a sensible approach when I have been guilty like many of the opposite!

[gargoyle2] 12/5/2015 18:38

Bakunin, I just think Kestrel see value here -- they've bought a million shares since January, at prices ranging from 89.5 to 100.5. And if the price is 140p by year end, then nobody is going to worry that they might have averaged up a bit. Nothing wrong with that, in my view. (In fact, the share price only hit 80p briefly on two days in the last 6 months, so they didn't have much chance of buying at that level.)

No idea about the Elliot waves though.

[bakunin] 12/5/2015 16:20

Good volume today.
Looks like the 5th wave of a 5 wave Elliott cycle which began in Jan 2009 is clearly underway.
A target area of 180-200 within the next 12-18 months would complete the pattern nicely.

[bakunin] 12/5/2015 15:51

Strange though how they seem to see it as their role to marshall the share price.
Why didn't they just buy a load more at 80p, rather than continually averaging up?
115 is what Kongsberg paid for their 5% and I never expected the price to fall below that.

[gargoyle2] 12/5/2015 12:32

Looks like another 50k buy by Kestrel at 102p today, which has kicked off the rise. (Most of their buys recently seem to have come at the sell price -- the sell price was 102 when that went through.) Breaking out today. Could see a quick lift up to 115p-ish here imo.

[ca5hworth] 08/5/2015 12:45

yes technically could be headed for 120 as i guess this is a breakout of the 100 level. I nearly sold out of boredom last week but feels like this stock has some good albeit slow moving potential in fundamental terms too!

[gargoyle2] 07/5/2015 20:21

Just checking in, having missed the last 2 hours trading today. Some chunky buying going on here, and the highest close since October. Looking good imo.

[asusasus] 07/5/2015 19:06

The best shares are the ones with quiet bb's. Sssshhhh

[bakunin] 07/5/2015 16:31

hi Gargoyle2
It will be a bit lonely here because most people seem to have sold out or gone to sleep.
I think what most observers are looking for is a tangible breach into the upstream arena. I think they are assuming that KBC has a strong position in downstream and that this is discounted in the share price.
For me, KBC is a good buy-and-hold type investment in its own right.
If they turned down the investment tap in the technology part of the business, margins would be very high. Therefore, what punters want to see is that the investment in the field-to-refinery strategy is starting to pay off.
Kongsberg may probably be almost essential in this respect.

[gargoyle2] 30/4/2015 14:19

BTW my contacts tell me that the Middle East in particular remains very busy for KBC. I also attended an oil and gas conference a couple of weeks ago, where a guy from UOP ( was saying that they are seeing rising demand for their technology solutions from refiners. I thought that augured well for KBC.

[gargoyle2] 30/4/2015 14:12

Bakunin, thanks for keeping me company here..

Yes, I do like the look of that cooperation agreement. I actually wondered whether it was aimed at deterring others from making a bid for KBC, i.e. whether the agreement would terminate (and KBC would lose the benefits of being able to sell the full KBC/Kongsberg package) if KBC was to be taken out by a third party. I'm probably just over thinking it.

[bakunin] 30/4/2015 12:33

"the very clear synergy between our organisations"

[gargoyle2] 29/4/2015 10:31

Lots of trades at 96p today. Looking like sells, but the price not moving. My guess is that's Kestrel hoovering them up.

Nice cooperation agreement with Kongsberg. A step closer to a full takeover..?

[gargoyle2] 28/4/2015 08:46

BTW, that looks like another 50k Kestrel purchase right on the closing bell yesterday. Expect at RNS later today..

[gargoyle2] 27/4/2015 19:26

New versions of the engineering software launched:

Oh, and Kestrel bought another 50k shares.

[gargoyle2] 20/4/2015 12:47

Kestrel again... zzzz...

[gargoyle2] 13/4/2015 12:42

Kestrel's continued buying not even getting a comment here these days. Yawn...

[gargoyle2] 30/3/2015 08:32

This from Hayward Tyler (HAYT) this morning:

"Within oil & gas, the Company is receiving significant interest from the industry as a result of its subsea experience and the ability of its technology to secure greater efficiency and extraction from offshore wells."

As I understand it, HAYT's technology is more steel equipment (submersible motors) rather than software, but there's still a potential read-across for KBC, imo.