Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Kbc Adv.Tech. LSE:KBC London Ordinary Share GB0004804646 ORD 2.5P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +0.00p +0.00% 209.25p 0.00p 0.00p - - - 0 06:30:09
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Oil Equipment Services & Distribution 76.0 6.7 5.7 36.7 172.27

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Date Time Title Posts
13/5/201608:21KBC Advanced Technologies plc2,113
24/8/200918:42KBC Adv.Technologies: Ready to Advance?59
30/10/200312:42Chart buy (?),cash and growth99
27/2/200217:58Chart buy (?),cash and growth1

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gersemi: The downside risk due to the deal falling through is far greater than the gain to be made by another bid. The mgt believe today's bid reflects full value and they know the business from the inside so one would assume today's mkt cap is the max that can be achieved. Another bid, should it come in, would only be a small percentage to today's value. Say 5% or less? Now, if the bid falls through I am telling you the share-price will get hammered by at least 20% It's a no-brainer. You sell today, take the cash and seek other opportunities elsewhere
fredfishcake: All other things being equal, you will actually receive 185p per share - but it normally takes several months before you actually get the cash - and there are no dealing fees. Alternatives are that one of the groups fails to get approval (unlikely here as both boards have recommended the offer) and the deal falls through, with related share-price drop, or that another, improved offer emerges from the woodwork from another company and they get into a bidding war. That isn't common, and certainly isn't something to rely on. As you can currently sell for 183, I'd echo gersemi's advice and suggest you sell in the marked to get the cash now.
simon gordon: Hi Gargoyle, Hope all is well. Seems to me that KBC's upstream strategy has had to be dialled back and probably they bought FEESA right at the top of the market. KBC has historically been a cyclical business with lumpy contract awards hitting the share price as they occasionally slip. The oil price is forecasted to remain low in 2016 with upstream cutbacks only intensifying. PSP launched exactly three years ago and has yet to have a juicy headline contract award and that was before the upstream industry went into meltdown. It looks like dead money. It gets the odd pop as ST and NT tip. Seems the best hope for a serious profit is a takeover or blockbuster contract award. Earnings upgrades look a distant prospect with the battle to keep estimates in line. If oil stays depressed for a couple of more years can they ward of an earnings downgrade?
wins73: Looks like a moderately big order in the wings as price has gone up despite low vol sells today. Grexit I believe should now affect share price much as KBC is in a niche market
wh1spa: ST's comment:KBC break-out imminentI have been following with interest developments at Aim-traded KBC Advanced Technologies (KBC:109.5p), a consultancy and software provider to the global hydrocarbon processing industry.I last updated the investment case at the time of the company's fiscal 2014 results in March when the price was 87p ('Blow-out results', 18 March 2015), having initiated coverage at 69p ('Fuelled for growth', 5 May 2013). Since my last article KBC's share price has moved up 23 per cent to 109.5p and is now on the cusp of taking out last autumn's highs at 110p. This price action should be noted because a close above 110p would signal a major share price break-out and one which, in my view, paves the way for a return to the 142p highs dating back to June last year. Moreover, with a decent operational tailwind, I expect my fair value target price of 165p to be challenged in due course.It's easy to see the company is gathering investor interest. Firstly, at the end of last month, KBC Advanced Technologies entered into an agreement with Kongsberg Oil & Gas Technologies to develop stronger simulation software integration and more effective engineering and operations workflows for the oil and gas industry. At the same time the parties have signed a reseller agreement to enable them to cross-sell their leading software technology products together as a complete suite for simulation, optimisation and operator training across the breadth of hydrocarbon production and facilities. This can do no harm at all to earnings expectations for the year ahead.Secondly, KBC has recently appointed a new finance director, Eric Dodds, formerly finance chief at software company Morse prior to its takeover five years ago. His appointment is a good addition as he brings in a wealth of experience in financial management of both consulting and technology companies.Thirdly, there is an active buyer in the market, Kestrel Partners, the investment manager to Kestrel Opportunities, a Guernsey-based cell acting on behalf of wealthy private clients. In fact, in the past couple of months Kestrel has purchased more than 750,000 shares in KBC to lift its stake to 12.25m shares, or 14.89 per cent of the issued share capital. Oliver Scott, non-executive director of KBC, is a partner of, and holds a beneficial interest in, Kestrel Partners and is also a shareholder in Kestrel Opportunities. In other words, there has been indirect share buying by an insider.Fourthly, the valuation is still attractive. That's because analysts at brokerage Cenkos Securities and research firm Equity Development predict that KBC should be able to increase underlying pre-tax profits by 10 per cent to £10.5m this year. This means that once you strip out KBC's latest net cash figure of £15m, worth around 18p a share, from the company's market capitalisation of £90m, then the shares are being rated on less than 10 times post tax earnings, a near 40 per cent discount to the small cap software average for sub-£100m market cap companies.In the circumstances, I feel that KBC's shares are still worth buying on a bid-offer spread of 107p to 109.5p. My year-end target is 165p. Buy.
bakunin: hi Gargoyle2 It will be a bit lonely here because most people seem to have sold out or gone to sleep. I think what most observers are looking for is a tangible breach into the upstream arena. I think they are assuming that KBC has a strong position in downstream and that this is discounted in the share price. For me, KBC is a good buy-and-hold type investment in its own right. If they turned down the investment tap in the technology part of the business, margins would be very high. Therefore, what punters want to see is that the investment in the field-to-refinery strategy is starting to pay off. Kongsberg may probably be almost essential in this respect.
paleje: ST articled these today, his conclusion below. Apart from it, hasn't the Chancellor today announced tax concessions, some backdated, to keep more North Sea oil production going and doesn't that go in KBC's favour too:- Following the earnings beat yesterday, and factoring in the robust order pipeline, analysts at broker Cenkos Securities and research firm Equity Development predict that KBC should be able to increase underlying pre-tax profits by 10 per cent to £10.5m this year. On this basis, Cenkos expects adjusted EPS to rise by around 5 per cent to 9.8p. This means that once you adjust for the latest net cash figure of £15m, or 18p a share, KBC's shares are being rated on just eight times last year's post-tax earnings, or half the average rating of the small-cap software sector. That's a harsh valuation in my view and one that justifies maintaining my long-term buy recommendation on the shares when I initiated coverage at 69p ('Fuelled for growth', 5 May 2013). I last updated the investment case at around the current level ('Energising growth', 8 Dec 2014). In fact, I still believe that a fair value is nearer 165p, or almost double the current share price. That's because, based on a further increase in net cash to £19m, as both Cenkos and Equity Development predict, the shares would still only be rated on a cash-adjusted PE ratio of 14 for fiscal 2015 if the share price was to double. Trading on a bid-offer spread of 85p to 87p, I continue to rate the shares a buy.
apad: ICToday: ‍KBC record contract win There has been a significant amount of negativity on the oil sector since the summer, reflecting the 33 per cent fall in the oil price since mid-June. Shares in all oil companies have been very weak in this time and the Aim-traded share price of ‍KBC Advanced Technologies (‍KBC:89p), a consultancy and software provider to the global hydrocarbon processing industry, has suffered in the fall-out. However, the company continues to win new contracts. In fact, only last week ‍KBC announced a two-year contract award from a South American oil and gas company. The contract is worth more than $48.6m (£31m) and extends the current contractual relationship to 2018. It’s the third largest contract in the history of the company and “underpins 2015 revenue forecasts and beyond”. The respective analysts’ forecasts for 2015 are revenues of £74.9m and cash profits of £11m. On an adjusted basis, Equity Development expects pre-tax profit to rise from £8.4m in 2013 to £9.2m in 2014 and £10.5m in 2015. House broker Cenkos Securities has identical pre-tax forecasts. So after factoring in net funds equating to 20 per cent of ‍KBC‍217;‍s market value of £71m, this means the company is being valued on only five times cash profits to its enterprise value, or on only eight times cash-adjusted EPS for 2015. Even after factoring in the weak oil price, this seems an extremely low rating to me. And it’s not as though the company is suffering contract terminations. In fact, it continues to win new business, which is supportive of the investment case. At 89p, ‍KBC‍217;‍s shares are still up on my original buy recommendation of 69p (‘Fuelled for growth’, 5 May 2013), but are down on when I last updated the investment case at 105p (‘Contract win boosts ‍KBC‍217;, 25 September 2014). I maintain my buy recommendation.
apad: A slick fundraise A software provider has pulled off a major fundraising and one worth noting Investors have reacted positively to news of a major fundraising by KBC Advanced Technologies (KBC: 123p), a consultancy and software provider to the global hydrocarbon processing industry. In fact, with the company's share price trading up to 123p post the announcement, it looks like this year's sideways move is now over and an assault on the January high of 132p is imminent. Beyond that, my fair value target of 165p, which neatly coincides with a major high in August 2001, is a realistic target price. The institutional placing of 20.8m shares raised £24m at 115p a share to account for just over 25 per cent of the enlarged capital and means that pro-forma net funds are around £31m, or 38p a share. The company's market capitalisation of £100m after the placing equates to 1.67 times book value, so it is not extended given that net cash accounts for half of net asset value and 30 per cent of the current share price. More importantly, the new cash will enable the company to target larger, more capital-intensive, higher-margin projects; continue investment in sales and marketing with the aim of boosting revenue and earnings growth; expand KBC's technology offering to provide a more comprehensive software package across the full spectrum of wellhead, production, oil and gas processing, refining and petrochemicals; and selectively acquire niche software companies that sell into the upstream sector and whose software integrates effectively into KBC's Petro-SIM› platform. In addition, KBC will deploy some of the new capital to invest in high-growth markets in China, the Middle East, Latin America, Asia and India over the next couple of years. In the Middle East, new world-scale refinery and petrochemical facilities are being built which will need a large number of skilled workforces, requiring services in organisational and skill enhancements suited to KBC's offerings. The company is also well positioned to support a major 10-year programme in place to upgrade refinery assets in the former Soviet Union. In my opinion, the targeted move to higher-margin work and investment in new direct software sales will not only enhance KBC's software sales in the coming years, but should lead to a higher proportion of recurring revenues. The higher-margin technology business accounted for a quarter of the company's revenues of £65.1m in 2013, but it's worth pointing out that recurring revenues from the division jumped by 20 per cent in the same period to account for £7.6m of the division's £17.6m of revenues. This business enjoys operating margins of around 30 per cent, whereas KBC's consultancy division has margins of around 8 to 10 per cent. It's also worth noting that recurring revenue is set to surge following a raft of contract wins in the past 12 months. These include a five-year agreement with a Japanese refiner worth £1.8m; a similar deal with a US refiner; and a £10m, seven-year contract for the provision of the company's Multiflash› software, maintenance and support services to a large oil and gas services company. KBC's Multiflash› software is being integrated within all of these client's production software applications, which are used by the majority of oil and gas companies worldwide. Moreover, if KBC can boost the contribution from its software business, then there is a strong case to be made that the earnings multiple the shares trade on should be much higher than at present. That's because net of cash, the company's enterprise value of £68m equates to only 12 times last year's post-tax earnings, a massive 40 per cent discount to the average multiple enjoyed by Aim small-cap software companies with high recurring revenues. Admittedly, a multiple of around 12 times earnings for KBC's consultancy division looks about right but, given that the software business has grown revenues by 38 per cent in the past three years, then to value this higher-growth and higher-margin operation on the same multiple seems harsh to say the least. Even taking a conservative approach and rating KBC's technology operation in line with the UK software and services sector average earnings multiple of 15 for sub-£100m market capitalised companies, KBC is still being undervalued by around 25 to 30 per cent. Re-rating far from over So, although KBC's shares have moved up sharply since I first advised buying them at 69p ('Fuelled for growth', 5 May 2013), the re-rating is far from over in my view. In fact, even if the shares hit my target price of 165p to give the company a market value of £133m, then the enterprise value of £102m would still only equate to less than nine times this year's cash profit forecasts of £11.7m. Furthermore, that's not factoring in any upgrades for higher-margin contract wins. There is also a small dividend after the board declared a final dividend of 1p a share. So, ahead of trading updates at the annual meeting on Wednesday 4 June, a pre-close update in July and the half-year results on Tuesday 23 September, I continue to see significant upside to KBC's shares. So do analysts at Cenkos Securities who "can envisage a scenario where the shares are worth in excess of 200p as the technology business becomes a significantly greater proportion of KBC's revenues". On a bid-offer spread of 121p to 123p, and offering 33 per cent potential upside to my target price of 165p on a six-month basis, KBC's shares rate a buy. apad
blondeamon: Just tipped on the famous Simon Thompson's column!!! Fuelled for growth I have been keeping my eyes peeled for companies on my watchlist that are showing signs of entering earnings upgrade cycles. I have dedicated a whole chapter to this subject matter in my new book, Stock Picking for Profit, and for a very important reason. Namely, if you can catch the companies early enough then the share price gains can be substantial. But you have to know what to look out for first. So, when KBC Advanced Technologies (KBC:69p), a consultancy and software provider to the global hydrocarbon processing industry, announced a major contract at the end of last year with EP Petroecuador (EPP), the integrated state national oil company of Ecuador, I certainly took note. KBC is working with EPP, both directly and through a major subcontractor, to improve its core work processes and support systems, as well as develop the technical capability of the workforce. The contract is worth $100m (£66m) over a period of four years, a significant sum given KBC generated annual revenues of £63m last year. Not surprisingly, the contract underpins a large amount of the company's forecast revenues both this year and next. It also means that there is scope for earnings upgrades if KBC is able to win enough new contracts from other companies. And this is exactly what appears to be happening as KBC has just announced a $16m, seven-year contract for the provision of Multiflash™ software, maintenance and support services to a large oil and gas services company. The contract is an extension to a previous royalty agreement between the client and Infochem, a company that KBC acquired in June 2012, and will enable the integration of Multiflash within all of the client's production software applications which are used by the majority of oil and gas companies worldwide. Strong profit growth in 2013 Before the EPP contract was announced analysts at broker Cenkos Securities were forecasting KBC would make pre-tax profits of £7m on flat revenues of £63.9m this year. This is a sharp rise on the £5.5m of profits made in 2012, a year that was dogged by a painful profit slide; working capital pressures that forced KBC to raise £1.3m from institutional investors and axe the dividend; delays in the renewal of a Latin American contract which held back revenues at the company's high-margin software business; and a restructuring programme that led to staff cuts. The restructuring aims to save KBC around £900,000 a year, which accounts for almost two-thirds of the profit increase expected this year. However, those problems are all history now. When KBC announced its full-year results in March, the company had a record level of contract awards and boasted an order backlog of £82.9m at the year-end, up from £48.7m a year earlier. And this order intake has clearly continued into 2013. Ahead of a full trading update from KBC later this month, broker Cenkos is maintaining its full-year estimates. Currently, analysts are looking for 2013 pre-tax profits of £7m and EPS of 7.3p on revenues of £63.9m, rising to £8m and 8.3p, respectively, on turnover of £67.1m in 2014. But, given the newsflow to date, it is only reasonable to expect a positive trading update in a few weeks time and one potentially with scope to prompt upgrades from Cenkos. KBC has its annual meeting on Thursday 23 May. There should also be positive news on the dividend which Cenkos believes will be reinstated this year. The forecast is for a 1.6p a share payout. KBC can certainly afford it as the company ended last year with net cash of £13.3m, or a third of its market value. That's the equivalent of 22.5p a share. Strip that out from the current share price of 69p, and in effect KBC shares are being priced on six times earnings estimates net of cash.
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