Kbc Adv.Tech. Share Discussion Threads

[gargoyle2] 09/1/2015 07:08

Kestrel again. They can't get enough. Downtrend broken here now imo. Time to head back up to 120 please!

[apad] 08/1/2015 09:58

10k at 91.5, rather than 20k at 98, I trust?
All this churning as far too expensive :-)
apad

[simon gordon] 08/1/2015 09:27

APAD,

I'm here, bought back in this morning.

Good to see the Chairman add 50,000 on top of the 25,000.

[apad] 08/1/2015 09:02

About bloody time Mr. M. reacted to this level of insider buying! I've been wondering about the presentation and the importance of covering the whole of the processes from pumping to refining. At first I thought 'so what I would be quite happy to have different modelling software for different parts'. What I don't understand properly is that there is probably a carry through of parameters that adds considerable value. Also, that the combination of consultancy and modelling makes for something of a moat compared with a plug and play simulation. Further, the outsourcing of expertise in the industry is widespread and a simulation is only as good as the jockey riding it. We know this from FE simulation - a callow, workaholic youth just produces worthless numbers because there is no context and judgement. In terms of the outsourcing BP's engineer CEO got rid of all the engineers. The excellent book "Wilful Blindness" does a BP case-study that should be essential reading for all investors.
SG - are you lurking out there?
apad

[glaws2] 08/1/2015 07:25

Goddden bought another 50,000 shares

[paleje] 08/1/2015 07:25

He's at it again:-

The Company announces that on 7(th) January 2015, Ian Godden, the Chairman of the Company, purchased 50,000 ordinary shares of 2.5 pence each in the Company ("Ordinary Shares") at a price of 90 pence per share.

Following the transaction, Mr Godden has beneficial interest in 276,000 Ordinary Shares, which represents 0.3 per cent of the Company's issued share capital.

[apad] 07/1/2015 16:02

Nice straightforward presentation, G. He sounds like William Brown in Just William, not pronouncin' properly.
Looks like the overspending on consultants and the FD debacle may be behind us.
Finals in March.
Wondered about increasing today, but went for POS & PRV instead.
apad

[gargoyle2] 07/1/2015 14:14

Just came across this presentation -- 6 weeks old, but I don't think it's been posted on here before:

[apad] 07/1/2015 09:32

Well spotted G - I glanced at it and assumed it was K again!
apad

[paleje] 07/1/2015 09:32

Yep clocked that too, lateish in the day, trading update due later this month too, good time to add while sentiment's so bad over the oil price.

[gargoyle2] 07/1/2015 09:16

I picked up some more here today, after yesterday's RNS about Ian Godden buying another 25k. By my reckoning, that's his first buy for over 2 years. Good to see an executive director (and not just Kestrel) picking up shares. Yesterday's RNS was swiftly followed by a 100k buy at 90p. Kestrel again?

[gargoyle2] 06/1/2015 06:05

KBC to present at the Innovators and Investors Forum in London on Feb 3:

I often wonder whether these type of presentations -- to Joe Public investor rather than analysts -- really do any good, but maybe they do. Of course, if anyone in/near London is able to go and report back, that would be interesting.

[apad] 29/12/2014 16:40

Kestrel buying again - wonder why this doesn't drive the price?
apad

[wh1spa] 24/12/2014 08:11

KBC is a leading independent provider of simulation software (55% of H1'14 profits) and consultancy (45%) to the oil/gas sector.Consultants worry that the sector may have to cut capital expenditure by up to $250bn pa (or 25%) by 2018. However, a proven way of reducing E&P costs, along with improving capital efficiency, is to implement KBC's proprietary upstream technology. Indeed yesterday a major European oil field services group signed a 7 year, £3.3m landmark contract to license KBC's simulation software.This is very encouraging as the upstream market is approx 10x larger than KBC's traditional roots in downstream refining and petro-chemical processing. Better still, we suspect the work is likely to generate strong double digit EBITA margins.We make no changes to our forecasts, but reiterate the target price of 162p per share. At 83.5p the stock trades on an attractive EV/EBITA multiple of 5.7x, representing a 40% discount to the wider oilfield services sector on 10x.

[apad] 23/12/2014 12:37

Increased this am, should've waited really, but my doubts have been laid to rest, and I buy the "industry very conservative leads to slow take-up" argument.
Although I don't have any specific expertise I think the 'vertical integration' argument is attractive (particularly now it's happening).
apad

[anumidium] 23/12/2014 12:11

My feelings exactly...Hopefully a sign of things to come.

[apad] 23/12/2014 08:22

Yesssssss!
apad

[apad] 17/12/2014 09:42

b, I don't think any of us thinks they are motivated by propping up the price, although their expression of confidence must have an effect.
I read the exchange as a bit of fun.
My concern was that they might want to take the company private, and I have read that this is not in my interest. Fortunately, I have never experienced it:-)
apad

[bookbroker] 17/12/2014 09:16

Why would they do that, propping up share price, pretty senseless, what they see is real value in this cos. technology, just because the oil price is weak and sentiment poor in the overall market does not reflect this co. has a really valuable proposition to refiners.

[apad] 17/12/2014 09:13

The emblematic animal for Guernseymen is the donkey, so I am sure your right W:-)
apad

[wh1spa] 16/12/2014 22:17

I'm sure Kestrel are just propping up the share price for fun and that its nothing to do with fundamentals.

[apad] 16/12/2014 14:28

Good question SG.
We do not know.
Scary.
apad

[simon gordon] 16/12/2014 14:22

Where would the share price be without Kestrel? 350,000 RNS'd yesterday.

[apad] 12/12/2014 08:11

ICToday:
‍KBC record contract win There has been a significant amount of negativity on the oil sector since the summer, reflecting the 33 per cent fall in the oil price since mid-June. Shares in all oil companies have been very weak in this time and the Aim-traded share price of ‍KBC Advanced Technologies (‍KBC:89p), a consultancy and software provider to the global hydrocarbon processing industry, has suffered in the fall-out.
However, the company continues to win new contracts. In fact, only last week ‍KBC announced a two-year contract award from a South American oil and gas company. The contract is worth more than $48.6m (£31m) and extends the current contractual relationship to 2018. It’s the third largest contract in the history of the company and “underpins 2015 revenue forecasts and beyond”.
The respective analysts’ forecasts for 2015 are revenues of £74.9m and cash profits of £11m. On an adjusted basis, Equity Development expects pre-tax profit to rise from £8.4m in 2013 to £9.2m in 2014 and £10.5m in 2015. House broker Cenkos Securities has identical pre-tax forecasts. So after factoring in net funds equating to 20 per cent of ‍KBC‍217;‍s market value of £71m, this means the company is being valued on only five times cash profits to its enterprise value, or on only eight times cash-adjusted EPS for 2015. Even after factoring in the weak oil price, this seems an extremely low rating to me. And it’s not as though the company is suffering contract terminations. In fact, it continues to win new business, which is supportive of the investment case.
At 89p, ‍KBC‍217;‍s shares are still up on my original buy recommendation of 69p (‘Fuelled for growth’, 5 May 2013), but are down on when I last updated the investment case at 105p (‘Contract win boosts ‍KBC‍217;, 25 September 2014). I maintain my buy recommendation.

[gargoyle2] 08/12/2014 13:44

Thanks APAD. I agree that news on the software side is key here.