Kazera Global Share Discussion Threads

[gb904150] 21/2/2024 15:44

well that drop is very unwelcome. What is going on here?!

[cyberbub] 16/2/2024 00:30

PPS I suppose another big risk is moving operations from Namibia (the company only had Namibia when I was last a holder) to South Africa. Regrettably SA now seems to be a highly corrupt and politically/bureaucratically paralysed country.

[cyberbub] 15/2/2024 23:58

PS is the $300k/month gross profits from Whale Head the total and Kazera only get 60% of that? That would be a lot less attractive...

[cyberbub] 15/2/2024 23:49

Right then. The company say that the project at Walviskop will bring in only $300k per month gross profit = $3.6M per year or approx £3M. But the last results show an admin cost of £1.5M. So that's £1.5M pre-tax profit (assuming all further capex is paid for by the Aftan money, which is risky as the Chinese payment is delinquent). Put it on a typical p/e for a mining company of 8 and that makes £12M market cap (no debt and assume little cash). That makes a share price of about 1.2p.On the downside risk, there may be some unexpected final costs or technical hiccups. The arrangement at Deep Blue seems very complex and it's not clear how profitable it will be, if at all initially... could it be an albatross?On the upside, the remaining 50% of the Chinese payment will hopefully turn up eventually and is a substantial amount of cash given the market cap. If it doesn't, Kazera still retains ownership of the mine - assuming that Namibian courts are willing and able to support Kazera if it comes to that. And of course there is the potential for expansion of the operations. And the AMS investment seems very positive.Does anybody know why Kazera recognised the full net cash payment from Aftan in their June 2023 accounts, when less than half had been received?Thanks for any tips or comments from holders. I did actually hold some Kazera several years ago but sold out at a loss. It's always amazing how long it takes to actually get any mining operation going!

[outspan] 15/2/2024 23:07

Don't forget the Put Option was struck when the share price was nearer 1p, still a significant premium of course, but it was clearly struck for volume and, if upwards of 1.5p value was seen by AMS then, it can only be even greater now by buying in the market. Having taken the max 29.9% at 1.5p, AMS can't do that without triggering a bid. A singular opportunity for others though for all the reasons outlined above.

Not sure if you were looking for an answer to your last question cyberbub but, no, they're not. Completely new investor and, to me, that adds substantially to that bit of this story.

[cyberbub] 15/2/2024 21:47

AMS did pay way over the going rate it seems, although probably they would have had to, to get the volume they wanted. They're not a related party in a cosy transaction are they?

[red rook] 15/2/2024 19:13

... also KZG have zero debt
... zero to minimal liabilities
... enough cash in the bank for the time being
... and with the their largest shareholder AMS buying in at 1.5p, I doubt they will allow any placings at these levels
... certainly not until the share price is much higher, and not to the bucket shop spivs!

[sclper] 15/2/2024 08:31

I've been keeping an eye on this for a while and decided to take a position whilst it's quiet. The share price/market cap looks ridiculously low especially given the recent purchase of 30% of the company at 1.5p per share. The buyers look like experienced operators and must have good reason to pay such a premium. There should be plenty of newsflow in the coming weeks so wanted to get in prior to this as it is illiquid and could move up quickly on positive news. Now Align has sold out it clears the way for a significant re-rate as there shouldn't be any big sellers to stand in the way

[red rook] 14/2/2024 15:39

... with their plant at their flagship HMS project planned to start operating immediately on receival of National Nuclear Regulator permit anticipated Q1 2024.... with their Deep Blue Minerals diamond project planned to start at end of this month or early march... with the completion of the sale of Company's interest in African Tantalum (Pty) Ltd in Namibia ("Aftan") either to Hebei, who has already stumped up $4.8m with $8m still remaining ... OR ... put for sale to a new buyer for a reduced $8m, which would still give Hebei a chance to hurry up and stump up the remainder owed !.... then I think kzg must be worth a punt at these levels, although nothing is certain on aim!.... progress in any one of the above and there should be sizable re-rate.... and for shareholders another important fact is kzg's strategic investor AMS, now holding 29.9%, happy to pay 1.5p/share only recently to increase their holding ... shows confidence in future progress

[red rook] 14/2/2024 15:04

... the 1m+ trade is mine and its a buy

[outspan] 13/2/2024 20:35

The target date for the Permit has been published in RNS and also Final Results and is on the website - "...It is not uncommon for HMS to contain radioactive elements and the Company has applied for and is awaiting the necessary Permit from the National Nuclear Regulator. It is anticipated that authorisation will be granted during the first quarter of the 2024 calendar year..."

With reference to the vehicles, definitely concerning but he did say a few years ago and that the army is there now.

I think you've misunderstood the other reference to paint pots, it wasn't connected to the 150 vehicles. He had moved on from that and had been talking about how useless it has been trying to get diamonds successfully processed through the Alexkor Muisvlak plant and went on to talk about the new plant Kazera has ordered and now had delivered to site. Once commissioned, which he says should be "...be producing reasonable volumes by end of February...", this will lead to Kazera bypassing the reliance on Alexkor to process the large quantities of diamond bearing sand which has been habitually problematic to say the least. Instead they will process it themselves and deliver the already finely-screened diamonds direct to Alexkor for final sorting and sale in what he says are 5-gallon paint pot sized containers.

Might not sound that much but 5 gallons is 5 gallons and if it's virtually final product like he suggests, a bucket of "...very, very high concentrate, full of diamonds...transported to Alexkor every single day..." (interview extracts), this sounds like a significant and welcome step up in the previous productivity of this operation and apparently in near prospect.

[ridicule] 13/2/2024 09:43

Thanks for posting the interview recording GBCol. It was disappointing that No target date for the radioactive license was discussed. I also found his reference to the 150 vehicles worrying. The second time he referred to them, he has said, by the time they deposited the diamonds, the amount of aggregate they were buried in was down to paint pot sizes, I could not see why you needed 150 vehicles to carry things like that away? Overall, I am pensive about my investment here and this interview has not made me feel that much more positive. Let’s see what Q1 brings.

[gbcol] 22/1/2024 10:08

I always saw this as a high risk, hopefully high reward, speculative buy. I’ve built a much bigger holding than I originally intended but I’m no less optimistic than I was at the start. That said, I’ve only been in this a little over a year so haven’t got the same painful history as some here.

I do agree that this 1st qtr of 2024 could (should) be influential on which way this goes.

[penrith] 21/1/2024 12:32

My current investment is 35 percent underwater so I hate admitting defeat. I will hang on to the end of the 1 st quarter and then decide.

[penrith] 21/1/2024 12:17

Thanks GBCol. Well it was an interesting listen. If I had heard that interview 4 years ago after investing in a Tantalum mine I would have walked away. The risk reward as has been demonstrated so far wouldn't have stacked up. The conundrum now is how to proceed. I'd no ideal of the 150 wagon planned invasion that took place. I had no idea it was essential for the army to get involved my only information was there had been'some' thefts.Before Covid I had visited Namibia and South Africa a couple of time and comparing the two in general is like comparing first world to 3rd world.I think the guys track record is not something I would have invested in and quite a bit of what he had to sayI found as waffle.

[gbcol] 20/1/2024 12:35

Interesting interview with Dennis Edmonds.Worth a listen IMO. General discussion but some specific comments that are quite interesting and relevant for investors here.


A Dive in the South African Heavy Mineral Sands

[cloud9surfer] 18/1/2024 13:52

Who sells 2 shares?

[al101uk] 16/1/2024 14:01

DDR, I think we agree about 1% of the time, so it makes a refreshing change ;-)

I have nothing to gain either way here, just interested by the discussion and Tigers refusal to discuss numbers that are readily available. I thought I'd lose interest here once GC was ousted, but it seems the drama has only multiplied.

I'd be very interested in what constitutes those management fees but there are no notes to either the admin costs nor that line in the cashflow. If I held shares I'd at least ask the question of investor relations.

[dead duck resources] 16/1/2024 13:43

Thanks al101uk, a refreshing change from TigerBytheTail's default position of refusing to accept the figures.

Just to add, I reduced the £1.5M admin by the £0.3M share-based and depreciation amounts from the cashflow statement so as to look at admin cash cost. I didn't catch the plc mgmt fees, good spot. If there is more hiring of workers at the subsidiary level maybe we will see admin north of £1.5M in 23-24.

[al101uk] 16/1/2024 11:17

Ah! Just seen what that rise in admin costs are . At the company level they have £1.15 million in "management fees" that are then rolled in as an admin cost at group level.

I'd guess on that basis they'll stick around and DDR is correct to assume H1 management fees will be half that of Full Year 2023.

[al101uk] 16/1/2024 11:10

OK, you drew me in, had to look at the numbers posted and see if they are completely made up.

DDR gave a very clear assesment of his view, so I'll start there:

FY to June 2023
[£0.6M at period start]
+£2.3M inflow from Xinjian
-£1.2M outflow from admin
-£0.5M loan/interest repaid
-£0.1M capex
[£0.7M at period end]

You can't really argue with that final figure, it's right there at the bottom of the cashflow statement.

Weirdly, DDR has 1.2 million of admin, where as results appear to state £1.5 million. I assume he meant loss from continuing operations? Even on that basis the number is understated.

Loan interest payments look pretty irrelvent and don't really factor in to anything else, so... whatever. Payables still ended up higher at the end of 2023 than they were EOY 2022 though. Might, possibly be a cost there?

Capex is a finger in the air job, no matter the number from 2023.


H1 to Dec 2023 estimated
+£1.0M inflow from Xinjian (as reported)
-£0.7M outflow from admin (some operational staff hired)
-£0.4M capex/ops
[£0.6M at period end]; further funds needed by end of Q1


I can only find $650K of payments from Xinjian since June 2023?

Cash outflow could be exaggerated for admin as they trebled admin in 2023 vs 2022. Is that a new norm or likely to moderate?

I'm sure there will be capex, there has to be to get the processes in place for HMS, but just acknowledging that fact is about all you can do. I don't think £400K is unreasonable.

That gets me to:

YE 2023: £700K
Cash In: £514K
Cash on hand: £1.214 million

Cash Out:
Admin: £400K (split the difference)
Capex: An amount greater than £0, don't really have a problem with £400k DDR used.


End of Q1: £600K-ish?

Safe to assume that the likely cashburn for the second half will be in the same ballpark, so more cash needed at some point in H2 by whatever means.

But the margin of error is huge!

[dead duck resources] 15/1/2024 11:49

FY figures were taken from the final results as reported in GBP, no need to look up exchange rates. We know the GBP value of sums from China in H1 23/24 as they were reported in the post-period section at c.£1.0m

As for reasonable assumptions, admin costs were £1.5M in the year with a small amount of share-based. I've assumed £0.7M admin cash cost for half year to Dec which saw a ramp-up of activity, quite reasonable.
With only £0.1m capex in the year to June, looks like some costs were deferred until delivery so £0.4m for the half-year seems reasonable, perhaps even understated.

Cash running out by end of Q1 then unless further funds from China, but KZG mgmt are a soft touch, the Chinese know they have them over a barrel and can pay when they like and as little as they like.

[tigerbythetail] 15/1/2024 11:23

It's really not hard to look up the right numbers and use the right exchange rates and make reasonable assumptions. That goes for both of you. Clown show.