Katoro Gold Share Discussion Threads

[grahamwales] 01/12/2020 11:49

Dozy
What revenue are you basing your figures on and are you attributing all the costs to KAT with 50% of the revenue.

[grahamwales] 01/12/2020 09:58

Gold price also moving.

[tonytony4] 01/12/2020 09:56

Sounds very bullish IMO... waiting patiently

[grahamwales] 01/12/2020 09:55

Production years have also been cut from 35 to 25 years from what I have read so maybe they are planning to start with 500k tonnes from year 2 once plant has had time to prove itself.

[grahamwales] 01/12/2020 09:51

Dozy

According to website they plan the first 8 years processing at no 7 dam. Not sure what initial cost for plant and equipment would be to get things started but even if half capacity then to get to full capacity of 500k tonnes per month should be slightly less than initial outlay not the whole $80 million. That will more than likely come when they have to move to the other 2 dams.

[grahamwales] 01/12/2020 09:32

From LSE board. Sounds like funding is all but done

[uknighted] 01/12/2020 09:30

hxxps://stockboxmedia.com/interviews/louis-coetzee-katoro-gold/

Superseded by this

[dozyduck] 01/12/2020 09:27

I have had to assume an initial $35m project loan at 10% repayable over 10 years, followed by self-financing after year 4 from cash flow, of $50m of the remaining $80m 2nd phase capex. Its crude but I think realistic in terms of the little we know. But tweaking capex and income year by year makes a big difference to irr etc, as does assumptions of the size of loan. What is does show is that the 'back of envelope' estimates arrived at on the BB's are completely off beam. And LC's claim of a 260% ROI is extremely questionable. Return on What ? Does he mean return on a tiny initial equity component of the capex, geared up by a big loan ? In which case its almost meaningless. But its typical of the sort of cherry picked figures he quotes for all his projects which, on closer examination show 1) that he thinks he can bamboozle investors and/or 2) that he doesn't understand the figures himself. eg for his Mbeya Power Project (now in abeyance) he keeps quoting a 65% IRR. But that's for only the 10% of the capex that is for the mine. He doesn't mention that the remaining 90% for the power plant only achieves around a 14% IRR. Lets wait for the Blvoor feasibility study and if LC doesn't publish it, shareholders should demand it.

[grahamwales] 30/11/2020 21:14

Dozy

How do you know how the financing will be structured as not yet agreed. Can you just give a breakdown of how you get to £7 million per annum.

Be useful for the board going forward

[dozyduck] 30/11/2020 20:17

GW My figures are from the detailed spreadsheets I maintain for all the cos I follow. I do them to check out how the announced capex, volumes, costs, NPVs and Irrs add up. But as I say, for any of LC's, announcements, there are always gaps in the detail and sometimes outright contradictions. And in this case, with two distinct phases of capex and subsequent ramps-up, we don't have the details of each, so have to guess. But I think mine are in the right ball-park - for the first phase at least. Its why feasibility study results are needed, except that LC never releases them, as do reputable mining cos. Sorry, they are too large to post.

[grahamwales] 30/11/2020 20:00

The board of directors also believe that the impending incorporation of the unincorporated Blyvoor JV delivers a clear indication that the requirements set out by potential investors are nearing completion

Take as long as you need, gives private investors time to build up a nice holding

[grahamwales] 30/11/2020 19:20

Now this is on KATORO twitter site. If they are planning to go straight to 500k per annum it would make sense especially with the amount of capital they are looking for upfront.

Taking out the first year of operation for commissioning of the plant then they would have to produce 55,000 ounces of gold to achieve target of 8 years.

➧First 8 years production from TSF7
➧Measured resource of 390koz Au @ 0.32g/t
➧All in sustaining cost (AISC) US $727/Oz

[grahamwales] 30/11/2020 17:25

Dozy

Any chance you could put some meat on those figures as not sure where your getting them from

Cheers

[dozyduck] 30/11/2020 17:14

Graham W If you do the maths correctly, to match what's known from the scoping study NPV and IRR etc (which leaves out a lot of required detail as is usual with any of LC's announcements) year by year, you'll see Kat's 50% share of cash flow at $1,800/oz gold, after capex, after loan repayments and interest, after tax and royalties, will ramp up to only around $7m pa after first four years. That's without taking account of extra capex after year four.

[grahamwales] 30/11/2020 15:08

Not a bad day considering all those posters threatening to sell if there is a delay. So if they have sold no doubt they will want back in at some stage over next couple of weeks.

Haneti news I’m guessing should be around middle of month and Blyvoor upgrade could be around same time.

Possibly see the share price creep back up slowly in anticipation of results.

[grahamwales] 30/11/2020 14:52

Well that their fault by getting spooked by so many trolls lol.

As things stand KAT would make around £15 million per annum increasing to £30 million on ramp up. I’m not so naive to think the new investors will not want the lions share of the asset return, however if KAT come out with couple of million profit per annum I would be more than happy.

[tonytony4] 30/11/2020 14:20

I think it would upset a few if we finish blue or even flat!

[grahamwales] 30/11/2020 12:55

What I have noticed on the LSE site which is a little strange is that the number of posts seem to match the number of trades lol. I know it’s just a coincidence but it’s fascinating to watch.

[grahamwales] 30/11/2020 11:10

At the end of the day if they can secure funding at a reasonable rate (they have more investors than needed) then long term they have funds to increase their assets possibly more tailing dams and prove up resources at Haneti. Don’t think they will ever mine Haneti but could be a real money earner to sell onto a tier 1 company.

[grahamwales] 30/11/2020 11:00

Justtrying

That may or may not happen time will tell I guess but opinions change quickly on AIM. Deal goes through posters will be singing his praises 😆

[grahamwales] 30/11/2020 10:58

Dozy

I post a lot yes probably because I see the upside whilst you post because you see the downside. That’s what these boards are for.

[grahamwales] 30/11/2020 10:57

Dozy

I’m not totally ignorant, any company cannot raise £36 million without having means to repay it.



I take it your not a fan of LC.