Jadestone Energy Share Discussion Threads

[someuwin] 27/2/2019 19:52

Half way down this page...

[alan00] 27/2/2019 19:49

Where does it say this?Thanks

[someuwin] 27/2/2019 19:34

Jadestone Energy CEO Paul Blakely will be presenting at...

London South East Oil & Gas Investor Evening

Date / Time:
Tuesday 12th March 2019 from 6:15pm
Location:
Brewers Hall, Aldermanbury Square
(Off London Wall), London , EC2V 7HR

[fardels bear] 27/2/2019 12:13

Any linkys?

[mount teide] 27/2/2019 00:52

Latest Broker coverage:

Cantor Fitzgerald - BUY - 94p price target - 'An Asian Treasure' - 11 Feb/19

BMO Capital Market - Outperform - 100p price target - 'Finding A Hidden Gem' 22 Nov/18

[mount teide] 27/2/2019 00:16

Costax - lol! - i'd lay off the crackpipe son - as they told you on the RRE thread; do some research worthy of the name instead of wasting your time spamming embarrassingly amateurish 'research' on companies you're invested in on dozens of other competitor company websites.

[costax1654x] 26/2/2019 22:57

Mcap too big,debts,small reserves,small daily oil debit for such a big mcap!!!!

[meteors] 26/2/2019 20:58

ahh i get it now, this months highest share price ;)

[meteors] 26/2/2019 20:48

Does breakout mean an increase in share price and also how do you know from that chart? (obvious noob here)

Thanks

[meteors] 26/2/2019 20:48

Does breakout mean an increase in share price and also how do you know from that chart? (obvious noob here)

Thanks

[someuwin] 26/2/2019 20:34

Chart looks better on the TSX imo - close to breakout...

[mount teide] 26/2/2019 19:26

Malcy's take on US activist hedge fund Tyrus Capital clearing out an 8.5 million line of stock recently to go above 25%

'I have had a number of questions about the increasing holding of Tyrus Capital on the shareholder register at Jadestone which recently went above the 25% level. I am told on good authority that not only are Tyrus friendly and supportive but have held a large position in the company for many years, indeed the recent addition was an ‘opportunistic’ one as they cleared a line of stock up in the Toronto market. With a lock up in place since the admission over here I don’t see them bidding for Jadestone any time soon.'

And with Montara coming back on at 10,000b/d against an average of 7,615b/d in 2018: 'With no further maintenance required before the end of 2020 things are set up nicely for JSE for the foreseeable future.'

[mount teide] 26/2/2019 17:52

US sanctions on the Venezuelan oil industry look to be bearing significant fruit - there are now 16 VLCC's loaded with Venezuelan heavy crude anchored off the coast unable to find buyers. The crude had to be loaded onto ships to free up storage space at the upgraders that convert the crude into liquid that can be utilised in refineries.

Even with the move, the upgraders are operating at much reduced production rates with buyers for the backlog few and far between.

This has coincided with OPEC cutting heavy oil production as part of its agreement to rebalance the market(raise prices). Canada, for its part, is still struggling with a lack of export infrastructure and has materially curbed production in an effort to maintain a reasonable price level for its heavy crude. As a consequence, the global supply of heavy crude is dwindling much faster than expected.

This is resulting in significant price anomalies, likely to create a shortage of heavy crude as demand for these grades picks up later in the year, ahead of the fast approaching January 2020 start up date for the new shipping industry low-sulfur emission rules set by the International Maritime Organisation.

Data from Lloyds List

[mount teide] 26/2/2019 17:28

Wall Street is finally calling time on the loss making shale industry.


Wall Street Loses Faith In Shale - OilPrice.com

'To Wall Street, the shale industry has lost a lot of its allure. A decade’s worth of promises have failed to materialize, and Big Finance is cutting some of its ties with smaller shale drillers who have not delivered.

The Wall Street Journal reports that the shale industry only saw $22 billion in new bond and equity deals, down by more than half from 2016 levels, which was a much worse time for the market.

The steep decline in new debt and equity issuance is a sign that major investors are no longer rushing to finance unprofitable shale drilling. It’s worth noting that this is a new development. For years Wall Street financed unprofitable drilling, holding out on the promise that rapid production growth would eventually pay off.

Shale wells suffer from precipitous decline rates, with as much as three quarters of a well’s total lifetime production coming out in the first year or two. After an initial burst of output, shale wells enter a steep decline.

Of course, this has been known since the beginning and Wall Street has long been fully aware. But major investors hoped that shale companies would scale up, achieve efficiencies and lower breakeven prices to the point that they could turn a profit.

However, that has not been the case. While there are some drillers that are profitable, taken as a whole the industry has been cash flow negative essentially since its beginning in the mid-2000s. For instance, the IEA estimates that the shale industry posted cumulative negative free cash flow of over $200 billion between 2010 and 2014.

The red ink has narrowed since then, but so too has the patience from Wall Street. In 2018, even as oil prices hit their highest levels in years, new debt and equity issuance plunged. That makes it harder for small and even medium-sized companies to finance growth. It’s not all that surprising, then, that a wave of spending cuts have cropped up in the last few months.

The WSJ notes that the credit environment also worsened when the market hit its nadir in 2016. Regulators tightened lending requirements, raising the cost of capital for indebted drillers. That, of course, made it even more difficult for these drillers to turn a profit.

To top it off, all of these pesky investors are much more demanding than they used to be, calling on companies to stop spending so much and instead return cash to shareholders. That leaves less capital available to inject back into the ground. Earlier this month Barclays issued a double-downgrade to Occidental Petroleum, lowering it from Overweight to Underweight, citing the company’s deficit after dividends at a time when the driller still expected to aim for an aggressive production target.But some companies are between a rock and a hard place. The WSJ notes that CNX Resources has lost over 20 percent since late January when it announced that it was bowing to investor pressure to cut spending. That led to speculation that the company wouldn’t meet its production target. It’s a no-win situation for some.

What to make of all of this? As Liam Denning of Bloomberg Opinion put it, “[t]the prevailing financial model for many frackers has hit a wall.” Denning points out that the shale industry has not posted a return on capital above 10 percent any year since 2006, which says is a “feature of shale, not a bug.”

According to Rystad Energy, the 33 largest publicly-traded shale companies, accounting for 39 percent of U.S. shale output, will struggle to please shareholders while also trimming debt. “Shale E&Ps struggle to please equity investors and reduce leverage ratios simultaneously. Despite a significant deleverage last year, estimated 2019 free cash flow barely covers operator obligations, putting E&Ps on thin ice as future dividend payments remain in question,” Rystad Energy senior analyst Alisa Lukash said in a statement.

Taking a step back, explosive shale growth was only possible because in the context of the post-2008 financial crisis and the response by the Federal Reserve to drop interest rates close to zero, something Bethany McLean argues in her book, “Saudi America.” Cheap money financed the debt-fueled shale revolution.

Rystad finds that over half of the total debt pile for the 33 companies it analyzed is due within the next seven years. Ultimately, the industry may have to erase $4 billion in promised dividend payments. “The obvious gap in expected versus likely dividend payments confirms the industry’s inability to deliver sustained investors’ payback while simultaneously deleveraging,” Lukash said.

That doesn’t mean that production is going to fall off of a cliff. These days, the shale drilling frenzy is being pushed along increasingly by the oil majors, who have gobbled up smaller companies. ExxonMobil and Chevron, for instance, can take a long view, and put mountains of cash into drilling. Investor pressure is different for these multinationals and, in any event, they are much more profitable than smaller shale companies due to various assets in refining, chemicals, offshore and otherwise conventional production.

As such, production growth will continue for a while longer. But the go-go days are over.'

[mount teide] 26/2/2019 11:10

L2: 40.0p v 41.0p - 40.99p currently being paid.

[someuwin] 26/2/2019 08:32

Will let me buy £4K but not £5k

[zengas] 25/2/2019 19:21

Possibility of a 2nd Jadestone well according to latest Ensco fleet status report 5 days ago.

Ensco 107
Jadestone Energy contracted for one well (estimated duration Mar 2019-April 2019).
Plus one 1-well option.



According to JSE Feb 2019 presentation -
Montara drilling was pencilled in for Q3.
Stag 2nd infll well pencilled in for Q4.

If the 1st infill well is a success could they bring forward the one scheduled for Q4 and perhaps on preferential terms, back to back ?

Cash pile has been building substantially.

[mount teide] 25/2/2019 16:37

Looking encouraging for tomorrow - MM's were willing to pay mid price (40.0p) for stock into the close. (L2: 39.6p v 40.4p)

[spangle93] 25/2/2019 12:10

@Zengas - ref Workovers. I can't find information on whether there is a permanent rig on Montara? Given its age and distance from infrastructure, there probably is,in which case there may not be a need for an RNS about any workovers. If there isn't, such that a temporary facility has to be installed, then they are more likely to do a campaign and RNS it

[mount teide] 25/2/2019 11:39

If not before, then by the end of March there should be news on:

* Transfer of operatorship of Montara to JSE

* Spudding of Stag Infill well