Jubilee Metals Share Discussion Threads

[gsg] 27/10/2019 17:02

Bullster.

You are correct. It would be 8-10ktpm. If they could add the chrome deal at Hernic, that would be massive for JLP.

[billyboy2fromiii] 27/10/2019 16:47

Lost,

If that comment is aimed at me, I can assure you that I am a genuine holder since June 2016. Previously posted on iii and more recently LSE. I have previously just beenh a reader of this BB but thought I would comment as there seems to be some good posters on here.

Regards, BB2.

[lostabillion] 27/10/2019 16:25

Do I spot another reincarnation!?!

[billyboy2fromiii] 27/10/2019 15:33

Hi Bullster,

You say that we can now sell the chrome concentrate but surely that is incorrect. The deal regarding the chrome is only an option that "NewCo" will have to agree to finalise at a later date. Surely, the chrome concentrate will still be theirs at no benefit to Jubilee until such a time that "NewCo" agree the chrome deal for payment of £££$$$ from Jubilee?

Thank you for your previous replies, BB2.

[billyboy2fromiii] 27/10/2019 15:28

Hi Bullster,

You say that we can now sell the chrome concentrate but surely that is incorrect.

[meanreverter] 27/10/2019 15:21

Good interview (with sub-par sound quality):

[goingforarun] 27/10/2019 15:13

My question is why was this not sorted as part of the negotiation and how much will it cost? Great if it can be completed with existing cash resources?

[gsg] 27/10/2019 14:25

Bullster. Thank you for your response.

Yes, 8-10 ktpa for chrome production mentioned in the Shard note, through Hernic tailings does sound mickey mouse.

Perhaps, as you say, and as the business rescue practitioner stated, it should be 8-10kt per month.

[bullster] 27/10/2019 14:05

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GSG,

Re your post 15533, i believe the Shard note to be incorrect, when quoting 8-10k tpa of chrome concentrate. For a start, Questco the Business Rescue Practitioner emailed me the figure of upto 10k tpm. I once did a calculation from a yearly production at DCM and the chrome concentrate recovery from tailings was about 22%.

The cost to produce pgm's at Hernic includes producing this chrome concentrate, we can now sell it and add the full receipts as earnings, the September earnings for pgm's was £1.41m, just add on the selling price of 9.24k tonnes of c/c on top, as earnings.

p.s. Shard says the average at feed at Hernic was 42k/m, so on an equivalent DCM 22% recovery gives 9.24ktm.
The target was always 45ktm now to go up to 50ktm.

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[billyboy2fromiii] 27/10/2019 12:39

Hi Undertaker,

Interested on what basis you have calculated 10p (end 2019) and 20p (end 2020). I will do my calculations later and compare with your figures.

BB2

[bullster] 27/10/2019 12:35

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billyboy2fromiii,

Leon has stated that JLP will get 30k pgm ounces off Northam, which matches the 30k pgm ounces from hernic. Therefore Northams share is the balance of the targeted 33.6k pgm ounces plus 120k tonnes of chrome concentrate.

JLP's cost to produce at Hernic hovers under $400 per ounce produced and is accounted for in the project earnings figure, Northam will recover their cost to produce in the same manner, so JLP should earn more or less the same earnings for a pgm ounce at Eland as it does at Hernic.

edit..... minus around $3 per tonne for transport.

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[billyboy2fromiii] 27/10/2019 12:17

Hi 1MM,

I have not been able to find anything that says the content is twice that of the Hernic feed. My understanding is that the feed rate of Windsor (60,000t per month) will be about the same size as Hernic (55,000 t per month) and the targeted produced PGM of Windsor (30,000 oz per annum) (will be about the same as Hernic (2,500 oz per month. So although PGM production could double from 30,000 oz, the content is not double. On that basis, I do feel that the trucking cost and the profit share will mean that the earnings from Windsor will be less than Hernic. I am very happy to be corrected.

Regards, BB2.

[robers98] 27/10/2019 11:18

Appreciate this is in the header but if anyone is new to jlp, this gives you a good starting point. Then just add in the mini interviews since.

[billyboy2fromiii] 27/10/2019 10:33

Hi 1MM,

Thank you for your response.

To be honest, I was not aware of that fact. Can you tell me where I can find the content/grade of the material for both plants so that I can read up on this.

Again, thank you. I just like to query any figures quote on here so that I either agree with or disagree with to help with my own thoughts on this going forward.

BB2.

[gsg] 27/10/2019 10:24

From this statement in the broker note, figures from Eland plant will hopefully surprise to the upside, given that JLP is pushing the plant so hard.


"JLP has also acquired the 100% rights to a further 1Mt stockpile of Hernic’s PGM rich material at surface located close to JLP’s Windsor (PlatCro) chrome operations. This material can be processed immediately at JLP’s Eland plant which JLP is pushing hard to take advantage of current PGM-basket price strength."

[1madmarky] 27/10/2019 10:15

BB2 - The Windsor PGM content is twice that of the Hernic feed material. That should more than take care of the trucking and profit share.

[billyboy2fromiii] 27/10/2019 09:01

Hi Bullster,

Interested in your estimated earnings figures.

Have you taken account of the profit share for the Windsor PGMs? My understanding is that we truck the material to them (obviously at our own cost), they process it (for a fixed fee) and the resulting profit is shares with us receiving the majority (split unknown as far as I as aware). I cannot see that you Windsor estimate takes this into account?

Regards, BB2.

[lostabillion] 27/10/2019 05:24

Undertaker, your thoughts on share price movement are similar to mine.

Leon has given us clues which suggest that we could accelerate way beyond 30p.

10p within the next 8 weeks is likely imo with a proper rerate around the middle of next year.

Happy if it takes a bit longer as I remain a firm buyer whilst the share price is in single digits.

Something else to bear in mind is that we have approx £60m worth of PGM’s just sitting there at DCM. That is almost our entire MCap!

Slight spanner in the works is that we are a sitting duck for a takeover.

I too will not be selling a single share prior to hitting 35p and even then I’ll review and continue holding if the company continues to grow at pace.

The business model is easily scaleable and will be implemented in yet to be announced countries around the world as per Leon’s clues, hence my belief that the share price will rise beyond 35p.

[undertaker] 27/10/2019 00:11

Plat - the SASS is an interesting topic... will do some more reading on it.
I'm sure they will close down the benefits in a few years time before I get to take advantage!

I reckon we will be at 10p before the end of this year...20p+ by Dec2020.

And they ain't getting my shares for less than 35p!

[frogkid] 26/10/2019 18:58

This time next year Rodney

[plat hunter] 26/10/2019 18:57

Sorry GFA i meant 2020, which takes us to next christmas

[goingforarun] 26/10/2019 17:47

PH, just to confirm you’re calling 10p for December 2020? Can never figure out yearends!

[plat hunter] 26/10/2019 14:19

I'm basing that on 3.5 times EBITDA with a continued same rate of growt btw

[plat hunter] 26/10/2019 14:17

10p inside 4 weeks of 2019 full year results and 30p by full year 2022