Jubilee Metals Share Discussion Threads

[gsg] 15/8/2019 07:37

Goldi,

Does yesterdays Shard broker note guidance on Jubilee, change in any way, the view that you took after analysing the interim's?

[niloc4] 15/8/2019 07:03

Mitsubishi are back. Are they showing another interest in Tjate- aka Windsor. Tick tock

[sharenotes] 15/8/2019 06:42

Hi boris, I hope all goes well.

The paradigm has shifted, no doubt. We live in a sea of debt. The tsunami(stock market)is now fully developed but hasn’t quite hit the shore yet. The inversion also indicates that there is an appetite for risk-off havens, i.e. deep water (debt), well away from the coast. Note that you can get a greater return for overnight debt – what does that tell you? I would not be surprised if the stock market (tsunami) rises and, momentarily, there will be free fish for all on the beach. The risk-off types think they will be OK, but look at how all currencies are falling with respect to gold. Gold represents the high ground, something really solid. I have re-vectored my focus on precious metals, but each to their own.

PS I apologise for the analogy but, hopefully, it is easier to get the point across without going all technical!

[niloc4] 15/8/2019 06:34

Leon Coetzer, Chief Executive Officer, says: "I am delighted to present Jubilee's Six Monthly Operations Update which showcases the exceptional progress we continue to make across our portfolio of metals processing projects - delivering against our targeted performance and bringing new operations on-line. LEON ARE U ALSO DELIGHTED WITH THE DESTRUCTION OF THE SHARE PRICE UNDER YOUR LEADERSHIP YOU LITTLE INVESTOR MAN

[timhigginson] 15/8/2019 04:37

I am puzzled as to why the drop off of Hernic will now be counterbalanced with the PGMs from DCM

[boris cobaka] 15/8/2019 04:00

Shares I do wonder if the 'recession' Indictator maybe a bit of a busted flush, although some will have used it to drive the market down. With negative interest rates we're in uncharted territory so do the same rules apply???
Ftr I've been buying 3x bull semi conductor etf's

[goldibucks] 14/8/2019 23:40

“I never once contradicted anything that I ramped, just days previously.”

So to get the timelines straight, I ramped, read the H1 19 results, didn’t like them, sold 2m shares, and said that I’d sold?

Looking at my posts before the results I was talking about BMR and the Kabwe royalty, SLP not being comparable to JLP, and share buybacks, I wasn’t ramping. But even if I had been ramping, getting new financial info, deciding I don’t like it, and selling, isn’t contradictory.

Mdalos alerted me to the problem with the H1 19 results, referring to them being £1.042m down. I’d been busy at work and didn’t see the RNS until I got home. You were your usual open-minded and diligent self, replying “are they really? LOL”, Sleveen was curious and asked him what he was talking about but nobody responded. I think Mdalos’ post got moderated which is ironic.

[plat hunter] 14/8/2019 21:28

If you believe what they say is happening and can count, then you can see it coming off in 2020 through 2021.

In the meantime trade it..

[sharenotes] 14/8/2019 21:26

Krypton, old chap, the elephant in the room has just let rip - the 2 to 10 year yield has inverted in the US Bond market. Make sure you are not downwind!

[deme1] 14/8/2019 21:18

Goldi is just annoyed because he did not realize that by selling his JLP shares he no longer has access to the VIP lounge at the caravan park!

[kennyp52] 14/8/2019 20:52

This is a wonderful share with unbelievable management ....

Leon Coetzer, Chief Executive Officer, says: "I am delighted to present Jubilee's Six Monthly Operations Update which showcases the exceptional progress we continue to make across our portfolio of metals processing projects - delivering against our targeted performance and bringing new operations on-line.
"Such a marked increase in combined revenue - 75% against H2 2018 - reflects our sustained focus on increasing and diversifying our earnings base and maintaining strong margins. This has been achieved through a considerable uplift in production figures across our portfolio, both in chrome and PGMs. Notably our chrome performance has seen significant growth which is attributable to our ground-breaking DCM fine chrome operation and Windsor chrome operation being brought online during the period. Replicating this success, we expect to see a step-up in PGM production following the Windsor PGM project being brought into operation during July 2019.

"With the acquisition of Sable Zinc Kabwe Refinery for the processing of the Kabwe material fully completed, our technical and operational teams are focussed on bringing the project on-line against accelerated timelines. This means we will soon be adding zinc, vanadium, lead and copper to our commodity basket, an important element of our on-going development strategy to diversify our earnings through additional jurisdictions and increased metal exposure."

One day this might translate into audited profits and cash in the Tommy tank .

[goldibucks] 14/8/2019 20:22

“But that's mining, JLP don't do mining.” I appreciate without a mining fixed cost base JLP will lose less but if the price of chrome concentrate falls and JLP have already had to write the value of their chrome in tailings down, they are going to cop it. As a processor you don’t expect to lose money and as Q2 showed it’s possible when you hold the stock on your Balance Sheet.

“I want to know what exactly Goldi was expecting out of DCM and hernic?” I was expecting fine chrome ramp up to turn the recent DCM quarterly losses into a profit and although they didn’t disclose either way, I interpret a lack of separate disclosure to suggest it didn’t. On Hernic, I expected the same ounces production as previously with the increase in the PGM basket price washing through to project earnings. I wasn’t expecting power outages to affect Q2 for Hernic so I was expecting a big step up from the £1.9m earnings they reported for Q1. People on this board had been predicting £3m-£4m for Q2. They did about £2.2m, pretty much the same as Q4 18 in spite of a much higher PGM basket price. They say they had a backdated employee cost, I’d have expected them to have provided for that and for it not to impact Q2 project earnings as much as it seems to have.

“A lot of respect has been lost... Just be honest, people are fools if they think they can move markets by having opinions that are contrarian to their actions”.

I don’t post for respect but if I was a neutral I’d be more interested in a poster who changed their views from time to time since company news flow runs hot and cold. I don’t have any expectations that my selling or views would move the price. However, I know there are other investors out there who will interpret the H1 19 results the same way I did. They will see them the same way as me automatically without me posting anything. I’ve always reported my buys and sales pretty much the day I traded and I’ve never said one thing here and traded the opposite way. When I bought a lot of JLP at 2.2p-2.3p earlier in the year there was hardly any volume and again I said what I’d bought and set out my logic for buying which at the time was driven by the Windsor Chrome acquisition and the statutory profit they were heading for. It was no coincidence that the share price rose in line with the H1 19 project earnings before falling back so the call I made was spot on. I funded 2m of the shares I bought at the bottom with debt so I needed to get it right. Had Windsor Chrome just doubled up on Q1 19 in Q2 19 I would have continued holding all of my shares in spite of DCM and Hernic flatlining.

Every time I’ve sold a chunk of my JLP, I’ve called the next price trend correctly. I never sell on a whim. It’s always because I don’t like the numbers.

I think the share price will drift on the H1 19 results. Volumes will be low, it will edge up 0.2p-0.3p every time they update and then fall, pretty much what happened in Q2. I can’t see it getting much above 3p unless there is a new project without a placing.

The question is whether PlatCro PGM share will ramp up faster than PlatCro Chrome falls. I think it will fall but accept that they may have taken the stock provision to protect H2 19. I think that scenario is less likely because I don’t think they would have been that fussed about protecting H2 19 with PlatCro PGM share kicking in and then not having to report any numbers until Feb 2020 if they didn’t want to. My guess is Saffery Champness got them to book the stock provision as part of their interim review which is why Jubilee’s comments about Windsor Chrome up to early June were inconsistent with the result eventually reported.

Another concern I have is that the Hernic sale could fall through and the mine might close. The business rescue has been going on for nearly 2 years now and Samancor don’t appear to able to agree terms with Eskom on the electricity supply. The wording of their monthly updates is getting more and more desperate. May just be trying to extract the best deal on the electricity supply but the temporary scale down from 1 Jun - 31 Aug could become more serious and affect JLP’s tailings supply.

[plat hunter] 14/8/2019 19:31

Krypton anyone can sell, I have done so myself. I was honest about it though, I called a lower price and gambled. Thankfully it paid off.

I never once contradicted anything that I ramped, just days previously.

[plat hunter] 14/8/2019 19:21

Good luck Krypton.

I'll look forward to both..I'll buy some more at 2 to sell higher for some extra gratis shares for the pot.

[plat hunter] 14/8/2019 19:03

"Shareholder value destroyed" lol.. How many other AIM companies or even PGM companies for that matter are up over the last 5 years?

You nob head, lie down and have a nap

[niloc4] 14/8/2019 18:52

All the rampers work for jubilee. NO AUDITED PROFITS - That's a fact. SHATEHOLDER VALUE HAS BEEN DESYROYED -That's a fact. JAM ALWAYS GETS PROMISED - That's a fact.

[kryptonsnake] 14/8/2019 18:51

If I hadn't of already sold I'd be selling now and buying back at 2p in November

Then sell up at 4p


LOLsss

[1madmarky] 14/8/2019 18:43

The latest BS will end once the usual suspects are back in

[sleveen] 14/8/2019 18:06

No problem

Let's hope that's the end of the BS, but I'm not optimistic.

Project update due mid Sept on Kabwe and Windsor PGM and Chrome projects.

[frogkid] 14/8/2019 17:45

Great post sleveen. Thanks for taking the time.

[plat hunter] 14/8/2019 17:26

Jubilee Metals Group has sufficient cash runway for more than 3 years if free cash flow was to reduce at historical rates of -56.3% each year.

Not many companies in AIM can boast that metric