Jubilee Metals Share Discussion Threads

[goldibucks] 25/7/2019 08:19

“I would imagine title for the concentrator only passes to JLP once the loan is redeemed”. You can only capitalise and depreciate an asset if you have legal title. What you are describing is a hire purchase agreement and you’d disclose that differently.

[gsg] 25/7/2019 07:45

The concluding line from the article. lol

"Bottom line: Zambia is in deep brown stuff."

[sleveen] 25/7/2019 07:44

That would be 2p more than BMR then.
LOLsss

[kryptonsnake] 25/7/2019 07:13

Chopper must have had a mental breakdown

The Jubilee chart also looks ready for a breakdown to 2p


LOLsss

[1madmarky] 25/7/2019 06:22

So, still a little while before the profit share kicks in.

[bullster] 24/7/2019 23:57

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Goldibucks,

Thanks for those details, you had the patience to delve into the convoluted project structure.

I would imagine title for the concentrator only passes to JLP once the loan is redeemed.

I had overlooked the 30% return on investment, which you point out.

If we say our investment comes to £15 million including interest etc., then the 30% return on investment is £4.5 million.

So we are looking at around £19.5 million in project profit will need to be reached in total before the lower profit share kicks in, £15 million being JLP recouping their outlay.

At 55,000t per month of tailings processing capacity and feed material of 864,000t per year, including fresh arisings.

FEED
Y1 3,000,000t + 204,000t = 3,204,000t - 660,000t = 2,544,000t Start February 2017.
Y2 2,544,000t + 204,000t = 2,748,000t - 660,000t = 2,088,000t
Y3 2,088,000t + 204,000t = 2,292,000t - 660,000t = 1,632,000t
Y4 1,632,000t + 204,000t = 1,836,000t - 660,000t = 1,176,000t
Y5 1,176,000t + 204,000t = 1,380,000t - 660,000t = 720,000t
Y6 720,000t + 204,000t = 924,000t - 660,000t = 264,000t
Y7 264,000t + 102,000t = 366,000t = about 6 months worth.


I would assume that Leon would not tie up the full capacity to Hernic material at the reduced profit share, when he could be processing some of his own material.

The additional option would be to expand the plant.

JLP's share of profits falls to 15% from 100%.

To demonstrate the contempt to which shareholders are held with reference to detail being withheld, i can draw attention to the chrome content that JLP secondarily remove. From the 55,000t of feed JLP extract 30% content which is chrome, before the pgm's are extracted, but we never see figures for it or if this is part of the profit equation.


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[goldibucks] 24/7/2019 21:09

“one day some real horror story will emerge”.

Like the Hernic dam breach, Hernic business rescue, and Kabwe license revocation? Two threats to their only profitable project and one to their next (potentially) transformational project. At one point, they were all happening at once. Hopefully, they are through the horror phase.

[goldibucks] 24/7/2019 20:53

“At this point JLP will own the Hernic concentrator plant”.

JLP have owned it since they built it. It was finished in March 2017, cost was £12.97m, it sits in Plant and Machinery in their Balance Sheet. See the disclosure underneath the 2017 fixed asset Note 8 in the Annual Report. Total Plant and machinery increased from &0.5m to £13.5m between the 2016 and 2017, the difference is Hernic. Theoretically, once they’ve processed the Hernic tailings, circa 3m tonnes, should take about 5-6 years, they will presumably have the capacity to process third party tailings since Hernic tailings increase by 17,000 tonnes a month and they are currently processing about 3 times that per month.

[goldibucks] 24/7/2019 20:33

“In summary, Hernic doesn't give JLP a (TRUE) profit until we drop to the lower profit share”.

“Profit share model only after Jubilee reaches a 30% return on project capital”. (from Jubilee’s website) They make a profit BEFORE the lower profit share kicks in. Jubilee wouldn’t be Jubilee if they confirmed whether that’s 30% in total or 30% per year or if the 30% return is after interest costs incurred on the debt they used to part fund Hernic. Best to assume the 30% is in total and they bear their own interest costs. Still some real profit in that though before the share kicks in.

[frogkid] 24/7/2019 17:46

Short term view that Timmy

[bullster] 24/7/2019 17:38

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In summary, Hernic doesn't give JLP a (TRUE) profit until we drop to the lower profit share as indicated in the Shard note.

It was always envisaged that Hernic would need additional feed, thus the acquisition of the Platcro tailings dump, in the first instance. I think we paid for the first installment and paid the second as part of the Platcro chrome operation acquisition.

Kabwe/Sable is the jewel in the crown.

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[timhigginson] 24/7/2019 17:35

It is now over 18 months since Colin was deploring the share price claiming that JLP was on a forward P/e of 2. The share price was then over4. 18 months later the existing shareholders of that time are 25% down.
It is time the BOD relinquished dreams of grandeur and settled down to the boring matter of positive cashflows steadily being reinvested in productive additional ventures so that the market can see a company with a proven and dependable CAGR in excess of 25%p.a.

It is all there in front of us but can our BOD deliver on this defining requirement.

This presents a huge lifetime opportunity for a successful career for our BOD. Colin has skin in the game and I hope the other directors will have as well.

Let's hope that we will soon begin to see the BOD's true capabilities.

[sleveen] 24/7/2019 17:10

Interesting.

[bullster] 24/7/2019 16:27

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Assessing when a project becomes profitable needs evaluating.

Hernic was funded by a mix of cash, debt and dilution.

JLP was afforded a contract that allows it to recoup its costs PLUS operating costs.

The contract changes when JLP moves to the lower profit share.

The moving to the lower profit share will be the point at which JLP owns the concentrator, all profits will have gone into paying for it.

At this point JLP will own the Hernic concentrator plant and an ongoing contract to process Hernic tailings plus run of mine tailings. The original tailings dump will be exhausted.

Hernic will require more than Hernic run of mine material to run the concentrator to capacity.

Northam will want some or all of their concentrator back when the Eland mine restarts.

JLP will be able to divert some or all of its Platcro material to Hernic, this will allow JLP to take 100% profit which will mitigate the low profit share from Hernic material.

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[scrappycat] 24/7/2019 15:57

I doubt the IIs thought as some do here, given their recent purchase(s). Wouldn't be at all surprised if the current dive in the share price proves to be the precursor of another II purchase.

[the bull] 24/7/2019 14:45

Agreed, just can't face the thought of another AIM wipeout.

[sleveen] 24/7/2019 14:11

Project update mid August. DCM July prodn Plàtcro PGM prodn Kabwe progress.

[plat hunter] 24/7/2019 14:04

Don't hold something purely because you're underwater.

[undertaker] 24/7/2019 13:43

just wait for the accounts... the numbers will be the proof.

looks like nothing else will do...and understandable

[1madmarky] 24/7/2019 13:00

Agreed. But with the metal prices continuing to move up, we should be earning more each month, that must eventually result in the share price moving up...

[plat hunter] 24/7/2019 12:27

I know exactly what you mean Bull but then i rationalise it with the II involvement, who are all in for little under myself.The II's are well more informed than us, they would have been individually walked and talked through all aspects of the master plan.We're pretty much left to interpreting whats going on ourselves then arguing about who's right on here.

[the bull] 24/7/2019 12:09

This share is a test of patience and nerves. The fact that we still are at these levels make me wonder whether one day some real horror story will emerge and that the whole thing tumbles down. 5p and I am 100% relaxed and I thought we would have been well past that by now

[plat hunter] 24/7/2019 11:06

Is chopper still alive or do we take his absence as confirmation that he's now fully loaded.