Jubilee Metals Share Discussion Threads

[choppernoel] 03/3/2019 16:53

plat Hunter is unsure at the moment. he's having his periods at the moment.

[goingforarun] 03/3/2019 16:04

Plat, not sure whether you are positive or negative on JLP’s chances? One comment re 3x earnings says enough is enough and the other says debt is very low which should indicate a higher rating? Can you clarify?

[plat hunter] 03/3/2019 12:55

Debt level here is circa 5.4% of NAV which is remarkably low, average for mid-cap resource stocks is around 45%

[goldibucks] 03/3/2019 12:42

To get to mid-cap JLP need to become self-financing for plant. While they have to rely on skanky lenders like Riverfort, they will be stuck paying double digit interest rates and will struggle to make much money. They need to agree deals with bigger miners to process their waste portfolios and tap into their much lower cost of capital.

[plat hunter] 03/3/2019 12:05

3 times earning is about right for resource valuations, in the current climate IMO

[sleveen] 03/3/2019 10:54

7m profit implies an EBITDG&A of perhaps 12m after operating costs ie gross profit.

A company generating 12m/yr cash with a MC of 33m should expect its MC to increase IMV.

[plat hunter] 03/3/2019 10:39

Yes Goldi.. There's an old saying "The longer the base, the higher in space"

The longer the opportunity is available, the longer it will travel upwards when it does.

[plat hunter] 03/3/2019 10:32

You're a real Carol Voderman Krypton

[kryptonsnake] 03/3/2019 10:22

Nelson,

You wanted some figures to back up my claim well here's an easy one

Even if Jubilee posted full year profits of $7 million I still think the current market cap of £33 million won't go up by much

If Colin wants to get this to mid cap status they really need Kabwe online because even Leon said that earnings from Kabwe will dwarf all their other projects

[sharenotes] 03/3/2019 09:23

A wise man once said, “Rules are for the guidance of wise men.” Recursive logic? A ‘rule of thumb;’ a theory it does not make. There are always exceptions but, as a guide, rules of thumb are often useful. Goldi, I think we are on the same page, but are probably coming at it from widely different backgrounds. Notwithstanding, if either of us are right, that’ll do just fine.

[goldibucks] 03/3/2019 08:59

“a genuine opportunity is inversely proportional to the width of the time window in which said opportunity is available.“ Interesting theory. My counter-logic would be if there is an incredible opportunity that doesn’t last long, i.e. is spotted quickly and taken, why wasn’t it spotted when it was three quarters of the incredible opportunity and taken nearly as quickly? The dynamics for me is that incredible opportunities and opportunities that few people spotted for a long time. Examples might include domain names in the early 90s, they could be registered for free by sending a fax to Network Solutions. There was no land grab, just a trickle of registrations. Top domain names were registered months and even years apart. When has there been an opportunity in human history to get something for nothing and sell it 6-7 years later for millions of dollars. Nobody spotted it. Bitcoin is another example. Although both ended up as speculative bubbles they are still worth 1000s of times more than they originally cost and the opportunity was available for a long period of time. I spotted JLP because it was attracting so much attention on forums, a lot of it negative. I’ve always been interested in stocks that promised a lot but didn’t deliver. They get sold to oblivion when the crowd moves on but a few of them come back from the dead and deliver. JLP has cried wolf for 16 years so nobody believes them but I think they are finally delivering and that’s going to become gradually more apparent as they report quarterly data this year.

[sharenotes] 03/3/2019 07:35

I often use a simple rule of thumb and that is a genuine opportunity is inversely proportional to the width of the time window in which said opportunity is available. JLP is not following this rule. A second rule worth considering is that if you always bet against your average punter you will, statistically, profit in the long run. I therefore take some comfort in the vociferous attacks on JLP within these boards. I appreciate that my presupposition is that most of these attacks are coming from your average punter!

So where we are now? Well legacy and trust issues have messed up ‘rule one.’ There is a market anticipation that JLP will somehow throw in a curve ball, no matter how much progress is seemingly being made. This cannot be denied. To counter this, it is readily apparent that Colin is largely absent from the ‘public’ management landscape. I personally read in to this that the reins of power passed on to Leon some time ago. Whilst this does not guarantee a positive outcome, I have concluded that the risk of an adverse curve ball has somewhat diminished. But the risk still remains. So the risk/reward has to be assessed. This is what tips the balance for me – the potential looks extraordinarily good and that, quite simply, is why I am still invested here.

[1madmarky] 02/3/2019 23:18

GSG - you would hope so.

I'm hope to see DCM start taking in 3rd party ore again. I'm assuming the delay is so that they don't mix new and old material. The old stuff being at a higher PGM concentration. Or new material would screw up the process (different chemical composition etc).
Hopefully they will do another webinar in the not too distant future.

[gsg] 02/3/2019 21:45

MadMarky,

Looking back at your post 8640 re prospective PGM production at DCM.

"That 1m is at around 5-6 g/t. Once it's processed for fine chrome the left over material will be 7-8 g/t I.e. virgin reef quality. So 1/3rd the processing capacity of hernic BUT the feed material at least 3 times as good. So should IMHO match hernic production wise."

So with Hernic,Platcro and DCM plat production, JLP production would be around 93,000 oz pa. Surely that would be a game changer in itself?

[goldibucks] 02/3/2019 18:28

"We're looking at Hernic producing 3000 a month". They say the capacity is 2750 per month in the February Indaba presentation so 33,000 ounces per annum. Platcro will be another 30,000 ounces per annum. Interestingly, they refer to a zinc and lead refinery at Kabwe. They add that Platcro chrome is making USD $7m a year rather than USD $5.5m a year that was in the acquisition announcement. Also interesting that they refer to owning 91.5% of Kabwe which includes the % held indirectly through the 29.01% shareholding in BMR. I'm assuming the plan to split BMR into a royalty business holding BMR's stake 12.5% royalty in Kabwe and another business is because JLP didn't want to have their 91.5% holding in Kabwe diluted by BMR raising funds for other business activities.

[nelson01] 02/3/2019 15:13

Jeeeeez....no wonder these numpties lose money.

[nelson01] 02/3/2019 15:10

Am I right in thinking chopper doesn’t understand the difference between shares in issue and market cap.