Jubilee Metals Share Discussion Threads

[tonyevo256] 19/2/2021 11:42

Regarding a stop loss, if there was no substance to the price rise I would recommend a stop loss and top slicing. However the current leg up is linked to the price of Platinum and copper so use that to make your decisions. MMs have been know to deliberately trigger stop losses in other stocks...

[bullster] 19/2/2021 11:35

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In a previous note, W.H.Ireland said that if copper was trading at $3 per lb, Jubilee would receive earnings of $1 per lb. If accurate , that works out at 33.3% of the price of copper in earnings.
With the current price of copper at $3.97 per lb, the percentage earnings to copper price has risen to 49.6%.

What a great start.

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[haughtonhoney] 19/2/2021 11:33

I'm not sure much will be safe once the Gov start clawing back the cost of recent history. Most things will be fair game.

[scrappycat] 19/2/2021 11:32

adejuk,

my advice, follow the green technology. The world will need to commit to this for decades. We don't want all those massive coastal cities inundated by water, no. PGMs will be in demand for many decades to come.

[keisersoze] 19/2/2021 11:30

@crmfan

I think the most common mistake I see is that people fail to take into account how fast costs will rise. In the last commodities boom few companies ended up generating the value expected because input costs rose dramatically.

Larger companies suffered from management vanity and went on spending binges buying over-valued assets. In smaller companies, management simply syphoned off much of the value in the business through share options and mates deals. Because it's fresher in the minds of investors now, there should be a bit less of this than 15 years ago, but it will happen given the jurisdictions most of these companies operate in.

You should also bear in mind that shareholders are the last in line when it comes to grabbing a piece of the pie after management, employees and suppliers.

Also, don't forget that companies have to pay tax - and in a commodities boom there are often additional taxes levied on companies making out like bandits!

My back of the envelope projections are for 30-50p by FY23/24. Beyond that who knows, but once it becomes obvious that this is a high margin business a lot of new companies will form and competition for tailings will increase. JLP is very much in a sweet spot at the moment.

[frogkid] 19/2/2021 11:24

Buy the physical stuff and keep in a safe ade

[adejuk] 19/2/2021 11:14

the next problem is what to do with all that cash to keep it safe.
that is keeping me awake
can't trust banks
precious metals?
govt bonds - which currency can you trust?
etf? which ones?

[adejuk] 19/2/2021 11:12

the sugar free one, of course

[adejuk] 19/2/2021 11:11

the next good rns and this will send all of us out for coke !

[adejuk] 19/2/2021 11:07

brill undertaker. v pleased for you.

[undertaker] 19/2/2021 11:05

wow - just with JLP & GGP alone my SIPP LTA has been smashed!

[verulamium] 19/2/2021 11:02

If you'd had a fixed stop loss strategy you'd have been forced to ditch all the JLP shares you now have and had to decide when to buy them back. Stop losses aren't always compatible with running your winners, as the winners seldom go up in a straight line.

[adejuk] 19/2/2021 10:56

indeed shev

[pshevlin] 19/2/2021 10:50

Run your winners and cut your losers. Have a fixed stop loss policy and operate it without sentiment.
If I could have done that I would have 20x the amount of cash that I have now.

[bullster] 19/2/2021 10:42

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Roan copper concentrate - up and running, first delivery to Sable refinery, imminent.
Zinc circuit - progressing well.
Richer tailings feed - pgm production boost.
Inyoni expansion - progressing well.
PGM basket price - accelerating.
Chrome price revival - bodes well with new and expanded stations comming online.

SO much good news to report !
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[tonyevo256] 19/2/2021 10:40

Yes I have seen those predictions of £1+. At first I rubbished them, but I got thinking about the metals super cycle..CBs plan to expand outside of Africa and JV on Tjate. Then a £1 seems realistic..however with current projects £1 would be a bubble ready to explode.

[adejuk] 19/2/2021 10:36

the last time i was in this position i let it run from 90p to £9.50
i didn't sell when it started falling as i was in love
it went to 20p
that was when i decided to set targets based on available info.

[platinumfinger] 19/2/2021 10:21

broker notes from Shard and WHI must be due soon, Roan news and so much more nexsflow to come. Likely TR1's RNS too.

Could see 23p + in March as Zak said, thats without newsflow.

do not sell your precious shares folks!!>

[kennyp52] 19/2/2021 10:16

cmrfan .. just take a look at Bullsters posts over the last 12 months ... you will learn all you need to know . In the past the company had to keep diluting for cash and long term holders were always nervous of the next placing . Don’t forget there are 2.2 billion shares in issue . Take the projected forecast profits of circa $120m then MCAP of minimum £500m is not unreasonable and probably conservative given the other projects that are in motion. This gives an easy expectation of up to 25p a share and optimistic maybe of 50p a share . The company need to back up the estimates now with the financials to give the confidence and imho that will bring more new investors in . Dividend from free cashflow with a future policy will keep the blue chip II’s happy . Exciting company.

[mount teide] 19/2/2021 10:16

During the recent brutal Covid low pullback in oil and industrial metal pricing, oil and industrial metal stocks were the cheapest they have been relative to the S&P500 for 50 years(1970).

The last great bull market in oil and industrial metals started in late 1999 and it was as late as early 2001 before the market became seriously bullish on oil and industrial metal stocks.

Today, a year since the Covid-19 low, as in 2001, we're starting to see the O&G and Industrial metal markets catch a bid and take off.

The huge looming copper market deficit forecast for much of the next decade is now unavoidable due to a waterfall drop off in capital investment since 2013, and which by 2020 was still barely off the 2016 decade low.

Brent bottomed at $9.10 in April 2020, and is now around $64. Yet, most oil stocks are still lagging massively behind this move; despite where we are in the commodity cycle and the fact that the recession survivors are now super lean businesses with largely very low, fixed operating costs.

Likewise, copper bottomed at a decade low circa $2.00/lb in H1/2020, and is since up over 90% within a year.

The only other times commodity and shipping equities got close to the Covid low relative valuation level before was in 1929, 1970 and 1999. Stock market history shows these three time periods were exceptional, once in a generation opportunities, to be natural resource investors. Similar to today, in all three instances, in the year following the market bottom, O&G and industrial metal equities very strongly lagged the underlying commodity price recovery before taking off.

With sentiment changing, very strong relative outperformance is all but assured for many years if the sector fundamentals and past performance in these long term highly cyclical markets is a reliable guide.

The trigger for this move seems to be the increasing realisation that with demand quickly recovering in the high population Nations, oil and industrial metal market dynamics are much tighter than most market participants, for largely self serving(China as the worlds largest importer) or other reasons(global trade war/recession fears), want to believe.

History has repeatedly shown that oil and industrial metal stock recovery phases post long recessions in these highly cyclical long term markets rarely respect global economic recessions/softening growth - often posting spectacular gains during global downturns as in 2000-2006, which saw many of the participants of the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index up circa 400%, while the S&P 500 was still in correction territory some 20% down.

Currently, oil and industrial metal equity market dynamics are strongly signalling a set up similar to 2001/2 - which heralded over a half decade long period of very strong relative outperformance to the wider equity markets.

Ignore the pricing power of long term, highly cyclical, recession ravaged O&G and industrial metal markets at your investment return peril!


AIMHO/DYOR

[spaceparallax] 19/2/2021 10:15

..and now almost 16p.

[mount teide] 19/2/2021 10:09

HG - 'The next 5 years feel like a huge sweet spot for commodities.'

It does - in H2/2020, for the first time since 2001/2, I positioned my portfolio 100% in counter cyclical, high quality O&G, Industrial Metals and Shipping market equities.....would not be surprised if it 3-5 bagged over the next 5 years, such is the growth prospects, low operating cost, efficiency, leaned down condition, and decade low valuation of these sectors now relative to the wider S&P 500 Index.

AIMHO/DYOR

[bullster] 19/2/2021 10:05

Going down range, throttle-up !.

[robers98] 19/2/2021 10:04

GSG must be those copper numbers, now where is a decent broker note!!!

[juju44] 19/2/2021 10:03

Short of stock now . Long overdue re rate