Jubilee Metals Share Discussion Threads

[robers98] 09/8/2019 17:33

Delay to the start up of Hernic due to their operation. Caused a penalty clause to be triggered which has ended up with jlp having a greater pgm take. You won't see them publishing that on the website. Which is why the company can quote 2021. Hope this helps.

[goldibucks] 09/8/2019 17:06

“We won't pay 40% tax in Zambia, will we, until we recover the £20m capex”. You think the Zambian government will give Jubilee the same deal Mitsubishi game them on Hernic? ;-) Yes you pay tax on your profits before you’ve recovered your capex. Jubilee will capitalise most of their Kabwe costs and then get a tax deduction for part of the capex called a capital allowance if Zambian corporation tax works like it does in the UK. They will pay tax as they make profits.

[sleveen] 09/8/2019 16:56

Bullster reread my post, it's aimed at Goldi projecting 40% tax on an assets that's not (quite) in production yet.

[lostabillion] 09/8/2019 16:43

Jubilee Metals PLC has 'significant trajectory of growth ahead'


Mining Capital's Alastair Ford discusses Jubilee Metals (LON:JLP) following the release this week of their six month report to June 2019.

Jubilee boosted revenue by 75% to £14.36mln in the period when set against the second half of 2018.

Ford says the added cash flow from their recent Kabwe acquisition will only add to what looks to be quite a positive outlook for a company which some investors had written off ten years ago.

''Now they're back and are one of the stronger looking companies on the junior market''.

Quick facts: Jubilee Metals Group
Price: £0.03
Market:
AIM

Market Cap:
£54.14 m

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[bullster] 09/8/2019 16:38

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We won't pay 40% tax in Zambia, will we, until we recover the £20m capex.

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[bullster] 09/8/2019 16:33

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You say that JLP get the plant at Hernic for free.

Well won't JLP get Kabwe/Sable free too, on the same basis.

Bonus.... K/S worth almost double Hernic in value.

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[sleveen] 09/8/2019 16:28

Yet another tempest in a teacup/red herring issue.

[bullster] 09/8/2019 16:15

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Goldibucks,

You must have been busy typing #13542, when i posted #13540 .

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[goldibucks] 09/8/2019 16:02

“82% to 4% is fair, in my opinion”. In the March Shard note, page 19, they value the different components of JLP on a DCF basis. Hernic is £19m, Kabwe is £74m. How is 4:84 remotely accurate when an analyst with access to their cash flow forecast is saying 1:4? Also, some of the value in Hernic has been earned and spent so the £19m is artificially low. You’re saying £4m profit for Hernic but they end up with the plant they built free of charge by recovering their capital outlay as part of the deal so they are getting more value out of Hernic than £4m. Also, if Hernic share doesn’t kick in until 2022 they will end up making far more than £4m. They nearly recovered their £13m outlay by 30 June 2019. 2 and a half years more of £8m a year project earnings at the current run rate is £20m. You should definitely get a job in finance at JLP! :-)

[lostabillion] 09/8/2019 16:02

I could tell you exactly who I think has sold and as such is deramping for fear of being caught out. It’s the usual suspects!

[bullster] 09/8/2019 15:56

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sleeven,

My percentages are representative of revenue not earnings.

lol.

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[sleveen] 09/8/2019 15:45

LOL

Kabwe will be paying circa 40% tax, it's not in production yet; give it chance Goldi!

[bullster] 09/8/2019 15:21

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Goldibucks,

"Also your ratios are up the spout."



Hernic only allows JLP to make around 30% or £4m profit before dropping to a 15% share.

Kabwes' 6.5m tonne dump will last longer and way beyond the 2022 limit of the Shard note. The share to JLP will average out at over 90% for the duration , processing multiple metals with higher values. There is the likelihood of extending life with 3rd party ore and i include the extra significant revenue stream that Sable Refining adds.

82% to 4% is fair, in my opinion.

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[1madmarky] 09/8/2019 14:56

I'd have thought a zinc supply deal would have been announced by now. Perhaps it's waiting until BMR are out of the way.

[1madmarky] 09/8/2019 14:42

GSG - agreed

[plat hunter] 09/8/2019 14:00

Plat at 1400 potentially brings Conroast back into the picture too.

[gsg] 09/8/2019 13:34

PH. Agreed re Sable/Kabwe

I still don't think the Sable angle is well understood.

IMO the reason Leon pulled back on the original Kabwe production projections is that Sable's capacity would rip through the Kabwe resource in no time.

They are therefore changing the focus into Sable being a regional multi metal processing hub.

[bullster] 09/8/2019 13:28

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Goldibuck,

Why would you spend £13m on a pgm plant when we are using Northams for relatively little.

And in two years time we'll have a free pgm plant to use at Hernic.

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[goldibucks] 09/8/2019 13:28

Also your ratios are up the spout. Hernic has made about £13m to date, but if Shard are right about share not kicking in until 2022 it’s going to make jubilee at least that amount again plus some so say £30m of total value. Shard estimated the NPV of Kabwe at £100m in their March 19 valuation so roughly 1:3 in relative scale but you’ve got the ratio as 4:82. Then factor in the fact that the Hernic value is mostly extracted by JLP in 5 years with little tax due because of JLP historical losses in SA but Kabwe profits are spread over 20 years with 35%-40% tax due and that 4:82 ratio between Hernic and Kabwe looks even crazier.

[plat hunter] 09/8/2019 13:25

Is it just me and can one always tell when Goldi has sold?

You change your tone more than your socks man.. it was only the other week that you was single handling Chopper on New Dawn

[plat hunter] 09/8/2019 13:24

Each to their own Goldi,

It makes perfect sense to me, why invest in a PGM processing plant on site before you test viability?

Windsor is well located geographically to form part of a network collection.

I've said many times here.. Our current projects are finite, they will eventually run out in both material and profit shares. Hernic being a casing point.

Being a collection network secures access to material for longer.. Sustainability over profitability. But that's why people have been selling here, they don't understand that the share price has been held by the market because there's currently nothing to value apart from small project cashflow with a very limited half life.

Kabwe will not set this company on fire on it's own.. Sable is much more important than Kabwe.

[goldibucks] 09/8/2019 13:15

“Can'take copy and paste from LSE on my mobile bit Jammer post today at 11:33 merits a read.” I switched off after the comment about Windsor Chrome being all about accessing a supply of PGM tailings because if that was the case they’d have built a PGM processing plant on site, which they’ve said before was their original intention, rather than truck the tailings to Eland, incurring additional costs, and handing over a slice of the margin to Northam to process it. Nonsensical logic.

[alpal2] 09/8/2019 13:14

Bull: Hope you're right but worry I may 'hop off the twig' before Kabwe et al come to fruition.
I do worry about the motivation of those selling sub 3p. Do they know something......?