Jtc Share Discussion Threads

[grannyboy] 08/10/2018 14:32

serratia good post...

And of course it's mainly the young that would be voting for corbyn and Mc'Donald's Marxist utopia..along the lines of Venazuela, whose inflation rate is expected to reach 1,000,000% by the end of 2018...

Yes brucie baby must really be ecstatic at the thought of these young enlightened turks, who are 'disgusted' with the older generation voting for Brexit...but yet intend voting for a corbyn administration...

[mount teide] 08/10/2018 14:30

Thanks serratia - 'on the macro risks, I don't see Brexit as anything to worry excessively about. A Corbyn Government on the other hand, would be catastrophic for share prices. As the Naked Trader commented on his website recently, if it looks like a Corbyn Government is imminent, then he would sell everything'


Exactly - been saying largely the same on here and the Telegraph and Guardian websites for the last 2 years - its like swimming against a spring tide with respect to the nauseatingly sanctimonious Guardinista's and their 'thought police' moderators who rarely accept never mind even consider alternative views to their own!

Paul Scott - always good to hear the views of someone who has a long and enviable equity investment track record.

[mount teide] 08/10/2018 14:13

Prepare for the biggest stock-market selloff in months, Morgan Stanley warned their clients.....in July 2018.

'The bottom line for us is that we think the selling has just begun and this correction will be biggest since the one we experienced in February,” the investment bank wrote to clients.'

During the three months since Morgan Stanley's client warning Note the S&P 500 has gone in one direction - UP! I suspect their clients are thrilled to be paying for such excellent advice! Nothing like having your finger on the pulse.

[serratia] 08/10/2018 14:13

Paul Scott - Stockopedia. Free to subscribe so I guess free to copy across. He looks at the effect on shares re BREXIT and a possible labour government.


I've tried to avoid commenting on this, as it's polarised, and political.

I've come round to the view that most people (including me) believe what they want to believe. Therefore it's completely pointless discussing these issues, now that most people have formed fixed positions, largely based on defending how they voted in the Referendum (not in my case though). We'll just have to see what happens, and most people are talking rubbish, in my view.

Looking through the politics, and engaging our common sense, what is most likely to happen? The bottom line for me, is that the UK is a large net importer of physical goods from the EU. Therefore it is ridiculous to suggest that the EU will try to impede trade. One way or another, trade will continue very much as before, possibly with some short term disruption.

As regards services - companies in the EU don't use London for their financial services out of the goodness of their hearts. They use London because it's competitive for their needs. The feared exodus of jobs from London, in preparation for Brexit, simply hasn't happened, or only in tiny numbers.

Last week, I had drinks with some European bankers, who told me that German & Dutch clients are terrified about losing easy access to the UK. Some are setting up UK subsidiaries as a cautionary measure. That's the mirror image of scare stories going the other way - of UK companies setting up a nameplate subsidiary in Dublin, or Frankfurt, just to be on the safe side.

Bottom line - it's all going to be fine. All these issues will get ironed out, probably quite soon, as it's in everybody's interests to reach agreement. Therefore, I am coming round to the view that Brexit is probably far less of an issue that I previously thought. It could even be an opportunity to pick up some bargains maybe?

As usual, this is just my personal opinion, and please feel free to agree or disagree. I think we'd all prefer that the comments section does not fill up with a load of strident, partisan, political comments - that's best done on Twitter!




Corbyn Government risk to share prices

The far bigger worry for share prices (which is what I'm concerned about here), is the risk of a Corbyn Government. Again, forget the politics, I'm talking about the economics. A big initial rise in Corp Tax would hit earnings by about 10% initially. Of course, history tells us that socialist Governments initially hiking taxes, is just the thin end of the wedge. Therefore, it wouldn't be long before Corp Tax would be much higher - probably 40%-ish, is my view. The stock market would factor this into prices in advance, so we could be looking at maybe a 20% drop in share prices, across the board, for UK-based companies.

Add to that various bonkers ideas like stealing 10% of the equity, and giving it to employees. Hiking top rate tax to maybe 60% or more (per a McDonnell interview not long ago), and top brass whose stated desire is to destroy capitalism, and it's not a pretty picture for people like us, who own shares.

Remember that McDonnell and Corbyn are admirers of the Cultural Revolution in China, where millions were killed - including landlords being murdered, so that property could be given to the people.

If these nutcases ever end up running the UK, we would have a return to the conditions of the 1970s - older readers will remember the "brain drain" - when high earners simply left the UK, to live in tax havens. This was one of the key reasons that pop videos developed - because the live Top of the Pops show could not find enough musicians in the UK to perform live. So groups like Queen recorded videos instead, from tax exile status in Germany, or Switzerland, at the time.

We know from experience, and economic theories such as the Laffer Curve, that high tax rates actually collect in less tax, beyond a certain point - because they drive high earners out of the country. Therefore, a crowd-pleasing increase in top rate tax, to force the rich to fund a better NHS, might please gullible voters, but won't actually raise any more tax revenue. It's more likely to put the whole economy into a tailspin, as the rich simply leave.

It won't just be the rich leaving next time, either. There are many professions which can now be operated online. As an example, I recently used a British solicitor who is based in South America. Why? Because he was an expert in what I needed, and was a lot cheaper than a UK-based legal expert. The same will probably become increasingly true for other specialists. Higher direct tax rates will simply drive out high earners.


In conclusion therefore, on the macro risks, I don't see Brexit as anything to worry excessively about. A Corbyn Government on the other hand, would be catastrophic for share prices. As the Naked Trader commented on his website recently, if it looks like a Corbyn Government is imminent, then he would sell everything.

[mount teide] 08/10/2018 12:22

CFC - 'Rather a sweeping statement there MT most of the young people I know are or should I say were genuinely excited about the opportunities of being able to travel and work within the EU.

I hope that opportunity is not entirely denied them both for our future educated young professionals and tradespersons.'

Following Brexit I suspect as before 1975 there will be virtually nothing to stop any youngster from travelling to Europe or anywhere else for that matter or, to work if they are determined to do so.

These things need to be put in perspective - some 43 years since we joined the EEC the total number of UK Nationals who now work in Europe are overwhelmingly based in just a handful of countries and number barely 1% of the total UK population. Voting age youngsters are 40 times more likely to get a tattoo than ever work abroad in their lives. Over 90% of UK Nationals still live and die within 20 miles of their birthplace.

'Why on earth would they would they want to know or even care about knowing MEP's names. I suppose you were a fountain of information on the subject when you were young.'

Surely, like me in 1979 if they are voting in their first National Election or referendum they would want to do a little research on the various names on the Ballot Paper? I know that in EU elections you vote for a party and the MEP's are divvied up after the vote according to the percentage gained but, since these individuals are responsible for rubber stamping the 60%+ of new laws we now have to comply with - all generated by the unelected commission and its bureaucrats - I would have thought as responsible democrats with a valuable vote it would have been of interest purely from the perspective of ensuring some degree of democratic accountability, since most of these MEP's once fully ensconced on the EU gravy train rarely give up their positions willingly. Incredibly, the EU parliament has largely just one job to do: rubber stamp new legislation since they are technically not allowed to prevent it being implemented! The estimated annual cost to the taxpayer of this rubber stamp parliament is £2bn - £1.9m times 560 MEP's.

Lack of democratic accountability is why Europe and the EU is in such a mess - as Drunker says we float an outrageous federalist idea and if the reaction is subdued just go ahead and do it because the electorate rarely take much notice and even if they do and get upset, we just take it away rebadge it and implement under a different name.

[mroalan] 08/10/2018 12:12

Maxk,i,ve lifted that post,cheers,mro.

[captainfatcat] 08/10/2018 11:43

Anyone else been following last nights SpaceX rocket launch and then the reusable boosters landing?

Pretty amazing technology

[maxk] 08/10/2018 11:23

Spreadsheet Phil comes up with another vote winner..




Pension tax relief will be cut to pay for the NHS, Chancellor expected to announce






By Anna Mikhailova, Political Correspondent
7 October 2018 • 10:00pm



Pension tax relief will be cut to pay for the NHS, Philip Hammond is expected to announce in the Budget.

Last week the Chancellor gave his strongest suggestion to date that he will raise taxes to fund the Government’s £20billion funding boost for the health service.

This will include stripping back the benefits from tax-free pension contributions, a senior Treasury source told the Daily Telegraph.

The cost of pensions tax relief to the Treasury is £39billion a year, according to the latest official figures. The source said this amount has been considered to high not to be used to fund the NHS pledge.



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Read the comments at the bottom.

[grannyboy] 08/10/2018 11:20

Yes the only truthful thing brucie has said..."It's only a drop in the ocean" YES to the wasteful eu, who havn't had their accounts passed for over 20 years, and allows MEPS to have thousands and thousands of €€'s of unaccountable expenses every month..

So yes, in the general behaviour of the gangsters..it's ALL a drop in the ocean...

[brucie5] 08/10/2018 11:17

Celeritas, make your best estimate at what this particular divorce is costing UK plc. Go on. Then compare it to 150m.

I heard that legal experts at that level could be charging up to 5k a day.

[celeritas] 08/10/2018 11:13

Its like a seller saying its only the cost of a pint per week, the problem being all these pints add up.

[mr roper] 08/10/2018 11:12

This thread is catastrophic

[grannyboy] 08/10/2018 11:11

The remoaners refuse to accept it, but the majority have given the concensus for BREXIT by wining the referendum..

A hard BREXIT is a figment of the remainers imagination...

It was quite clear.....voting to LEAVE the EU meant LEAVING the S.M, CU.ECJ....

Nothing confusing about that....

[brucie5] 08/10/2018 11:09

It's a drop in the ocean compared to the size of the EU budget. And to our current expenditure on Brexit. It's like focusing on the car you gave your ex-missus, while paying a lawyer to process your divorce and giving away half your house. You've lost all sense of proportion in your need to justify a terrible decision. Understandable, but very unwise. And for the country, catastrophic.

[celeritas] 08/10/2018 11:03

So £150m is worth it then?
Never mind the other countless useless projects the EU have funded.

What are you so frightened of?
We can still travel to European countries you know, there's no wall going up to keep us out.

[maxk] 08/10/2018 11:02

Who says there is no consensus?

[brucie5] 08/10/2018 10:56

Celeritas, there are so many things that cost money to keep government going. You could point to any number of highly contentious things that we spend money on, not least, BREXIT itself, which I you are assuming is money well spent. Extra lawyers, civil servants, business uncertainty, not to mention the urgent stuff we really should be getting on with. BREXIT is not a white elephant, so much as a White Whale. If there was something achieveable and beneficial at the end of the day, it might be considered worth it, but since there is no concensus for a hard Brexit, as stated, you will only get a disadvantageous version of what we already have. Brino. At what cost?

[celeritas] 08/10/2018 10:52

Looks like the French are milking it now for an extra 20m.

[celeritas] 08/10/2018 10:49

Brucie, what do you think of the EU gravy train (Strasbourg shift) at a cost of £150 per year.
Is it money well spent or a waste?

[captainfatcat] 08/10/2018 10:48

Chestnuts yes hope the rumour of Erskine is not correct and if so its now being sorted very frustrating either way. Guess we will find out soon enough.

[grannyboy] 08/10/2018 10:35

The only nose we should be concerned about is the one on Maydances face that grows longer every time she opens her mouth..

[chestnuts] 08/10/2018 10:35

Capt

SQZ

I see it this way Usa have imposed sanctions the UK as gone against this , so why should they give a waiver , now if the UK had imposed Sanctions a waiver would have been given, as for SQZ i think its given them a small breather hoping the Iranians and USA can sort their differences out.
I still think a deal will go through but not as it is now,

I am concerned about Erskin at the agm i was told it would be ready middle of Aug, its now well into Octo and still no news, i hope that rumour of the other pipeline is not blocked

[brucie5] 08/10/2018 10:12

allstar4eva
8 Oct '18 - 10:07 - 69172 of 69172
0 1 0
I come in peace.
---------------------------------------------------
allstar, even to pose such questions means that you cannot 'come in peace'. But I applaud the attempt to question the illogical. Given that Brexiteers cannot get what they want, BREXIT will go down in UK history as the largest act of futile and ludicrously expensive self-harm.

But probably best to let event play out, because most Brexiteers refuse to see the noses in front of their faces.