Jtc Share Discussion Threads

[mount teide] 17/9/2018 15:35

Since most equity index's are at or close to decade or all-time highs and many commodities, like industrial metals are close to decade lows following a 6-8 year recession across the sector which bottomed in H1/2016 - it would not take a Phd in Applied Mathematics to work out the likely relative performance of each over the next 5-7 years.

Global equity markets and commodity markets were in a similar diametrically opposite position in 2000 - £100k invested in the FTSE 100 in Jan 2000 was worth just £80k some six years later(that's if you held your nerve and did't sell out at a 50% loss in 2002), while the same amount invested in Copper was worth circa £498K by 2006(most copper equities went up much more - sector star Oxiana Metals increased 2,000 fold from a $3m to $6bn market valuation).

[jtcod] 17/9/2018 15:33

The thing is that almost 70% of Jaguar sales are Land Rover and a large number of those sales go to farms which have all vehicles running on diesel, so it does skew the picture somewhat regardless of the environmental arguments it will take time to change that I think.

[mount teide] 17/9/2018 15:18

With 90% of JLR's UK sales being diesels - its not surprising sales have plummeted following the shocking exposure of the diesel car industry as fraudsters who illegally manipulate exhaust emission tests.

Hundreds, possibly thousands living in major towns and cities in Britain and around the world have died prematurely as a result of the illegal activity of the diesel car industry, very much led by the German manufacturers.

[mount teide] 17/9/2018 15:18

With 90% of JLR's UK sales being diesels - its not surprising sales have plummeted following the shocking exposure of the diesel car industry as fraudsters who illegally manipulate exhaust emission tests.

Hundreds, possibly thousands living in major towns and cities in Britain and around the world have died prematurely as a result of the illegal activity of the diesel car industry, very much led by the German manufacturers.

[jtcod] 17/9/2018 15:15

When I look at the chart link below showing world debt growth and I consider ‘World Gross Product’ grew just $45.5trn from the year 2000 compared to $157trn debt growth over the same period, it makes me wonder.



In 2000 GWP was $33.5 trillion. 


It grew to $80trillion in 2017


How much is my house really worth?
How much profit would Equities be making if debt growth were to stall?
How much would commodities be worth if debt growth were to stall?
How much would they all be worth if we added say 2% to interest rates?
How much would Gov Tax take be affected if debt growth were to stall?
How much further would Public debt grow and the cost too in such a scenario?

Every single asset class has had its value skewed by an unprecedented rise in global debt over the last 18 years and unprecedented low interest rates too over the last 10yrs. Right now the vast majority of investment data is meaningless imo.

[jtcod] 17/9/2018 14:38

Jaguar Workers Put on 3 Day Week Until Christmas

[mount teide] 17/9/2018 14:33

Theresa May with her Chequers sell out deal "BRINO" , wants the supremacy of the EU to be assured. The British electorate like Viktor Orban prefers that the government elected by its peoples should be accountable to them.

This is the central issue in Brexit. The choice is simple: democratic accountable government supporting self-determination versus unaccountable supra-national technocratic government.

The UK electorate, Orban and the people of Hungary want the former. The EU and Westminster establishment want the latter. These are polar opposites. Compromise is simply not possible.

Viktor Orban intends to keep Hungary in the EU in order to reform the EU to give more sovereignty back to the nation states. Good luck to him, but leaving the EU is better for all of Europe.

There is no other way to make the anti democratic EU ideologues and their deluded fanatical supporters change their self serving approach.

[jtcod] 17/9/2018 14:18

Russia in focus:

10yr Bond Yield 8.8%


Balance of Trade positive


Current account positive
Capital flows positive

Gold reserves since 2008 have quadrupled


Oil Production at record 11.2m bpd


Gas Production at record 690bn CM (2nd biggest behind the USA)


Unemployment at record low


Government Debt: 12.6% of GDP


Private Debt: 65.5%


External Debt: $486bn


Exports: $407bn


External Debt to Exports ratio: 119%

[jtcod] 17/9/2018 13:28

Fundamental Valuation Ratios in International Equity Markets 31.8.2018

[tewkesbury] 17/9/2018 08:48

Check out Pantheon Resources (PANR) first gas production starts next month, low market capitalisation, all conventional, onshore and nice safe Texas.

[the stigologist] 16/9/2018 21:46

PYC

Seems to me it is poised just below the key 50 Week Moving Average from which it bust out in November/December 2017 to give a 3000% return with a move from 1p to 32p

[mad foetus] 16/9/2018 21:00

Thing is Mattjos, having grown tomatoes for years, I've finally decided that really, Sungold knocks everything else out of the park. This year I've had Brandywine, Black Krim, Gardeners Delight and a red cherry, but Sungold is basically the best thing I eat all year. I've moved around in the last couple of years and don't have a greenhouse yet but perhaps a poly tunnel and Wi-fi extender may be the next step

[mattjos] 16/9/2018 18:09

New cherry tomatoes still coming on in the polytunnel and the red ones growing sweeter by the day ... come home from work and eat them like sweets every day.Bumper year for cucumbers, chillies, strawberries4 Apple trees still bent under weight of sweet sharp, firm apples.The Victoria plums have now gone over but, was bumper crop this year.Cobnuts & raspberries still plentiful.Raised beds from old pallets gave loads of carrots, potatoes, lettuce & kale.You don't need a farm to do all this and grow your own efforts more rewarding and healthy than an unused monthly gym membership. Folk have completely lost touch with where food comes from & how good it should taste.

[brucie5] 16/9/2018 18:07

The treatment of J. Rees-Mogg's family was reprehensible. Unfortunately, the breakdown in norms of civic disagreement is another consequence of this referendum. Just as in my local school, the day after the vote, a boy was rightly excluded for the day after telling a Polish student to 'Go Home'.

Re. 'clever' investors losing everything, one only has to think of Paul Scott. But if he's not 'clever' enough (he certainly knows about p&l sheets) then think of John Maynard Keynes, who also lost it all, before being given back more stuff to play with, with which he did in fact, very well, also on behalf of King's College Cambridge, where he was a fellow. I think the underlying lesson is, that nothing is so damaging to our self-awareness, as success. We think we owe it all to our unique talents, when nine times out of ten, we owe most of it to luck.

[mroalan] 16/9/2018 17:53

common sense is not common at all.

[mattjos] 16/9/2018 17:43

PHD and common sense often diametric opposites

[mount teide] 16/9/2018 17:26

'I have a PHD in economics, but still lost £26,000 to an investment scam' - Telegraph




“These are clever people and anyone can fall victim. I’ve got a PhD in economics – I’m not stupid.” You don't say? After losing all your money to a CFD 'service provider' that you did not check out as to whether they were even bona-fida and authorised by the FCA?


The firm was subsequently revealed to hold no authorisation by the City regulator, who suggested the firm was “either operating regulated activities without the correct authorisation or running a scam”.


At least she can console herself with the thought that she is in very good company - Sir Issac Newton, widely regarded as the greatest Scientific and Mathematical genius in human history managed to all but wipe himself out losing $3 million on the stock market 'South Sea' bubble!

[mount teide] 16/9/2018 16:11

F22 - exactly - its possible to eat very high quality fresh food at modest cost provided you cook it yourself and eat sensible quantities: 300-500 calorie meal sizes.


We have a specialist meat, fish and veg retailer locally - the elderly owner sources his meat from Scotland and fish and veg from the West Country. The prices are extremely competitive to Sainsbury's or Waitrose's higher quality ranges considering the exceptional quality and taste which is consistently outstanding.

I'm the only customer he has left who asks for neck of lamb on the bone - he cuts it straight from the carcass - whereas 20 years ago he said he had dozens of customers who would ask for it. Cooked slowly it's as tender as the prime Aberdeen Black Angus fillet steak he sells - another great buy at £50/kg since you get 4 centre cut slices(about 1lb) for circa £24 - which would provide 4 great meals for a family treat for the same price as 4 burger meals at McDonalds.

Considering there is now over 1 million cases a year of food poisoning from mainly fast food outlets in the UK - the actual figure is much higher since most cases are not reported - there's a lot to be said for cooking your own fresh food if only to virtually eliminate the risk of joining the 1million+ suffers.

The biggest mistake most people who are overweight make is to make their meal sizes such that after finishing they are no longer hungry - by grazing on 4-8 small meals a day like serious athletes; where each meal is of a size such that they are still hungry afterwards - it gets the digestive system working much more efficiently, as the body assimilates the food more quickly.

[fireplace22] 16/9/2018 14:53

The only problem with the vegetables is that not enough are being eaten. It's far too much trouble these days to throw a chicken leg or a pork chop with a mass of veg all for under £1.50 a head. Easier to get a fast or ready meal for a fiver plus.

[hazl] 16/9/2018 14:44

chestnuts the food needs to be of a better quality,then there wouldn't be the problem in my opinion.
The vegetables are generally forced to grow quickly and so don't have time to gain the necessary vitamins.
Most of the packet ed products are causing the problems,too and are cheap so people tend to eat rubbish.
Yet again it is the profit-motive that is at fault.


IMO

[fireplace22] 16/9/2018 12:47

chestnuts, can't see how you can implement such a tax (although I'd be all for it) in view of the current Human (I've got my rights Guv!) Laws?