Jtc Share Discussion Threads

[grannyboy] 19/9/2018 15:05

Yes it just shows what bullies the EU are, if you are weak and conciliatory they will walk all over you...Just like they are doing to May and the rest of the UK 'negotiators'..due to their eu remain tendencies..

[mount teide] 19/9/2018 13:34

Trump said that Junker refused to even talk to him or Obama about a new trade deal that was fairer to the US.

However, as soon he threatened tariffs on German cars: “Junker was in my office so fast from Europe that I didn’t know they had airplanes that flew that fast". I said to him "Have you put Concorde back into service?” lol!

[aleman] 19/9/2018 10:49

CPI 2.5% +0.2%
RPI 3.5% +0.3%
Fuel and rising interest rates (in housing costs) seem to be main conributors to rises.

PPI input +8.7% -1.6%
PPI output +2.9% -0.2%

All this scaremongering about Brexit-caused inflation continues yet the £ is only down about 7% on its H1 2016 $ average (1.42) and inflation figures seem to show underlying pressure abating. We're basically lifting interest rates to attack a rising oil price and plans for further rate rises look like overkill if oil does not keep rising.

The good news is yield curves have steepened slightly. Can the UK's hold, at still a bit flatter than longer term averages, if oil falls back again as the MPC raises again? The US gradient is similar but will have issues with Trump tariffs pushing prices up. I would not raise to match these one-offs but I bet the Fed does.

Fed Treasury sales (quantitatiive tightening) is to rise to $50bn per month from next month (from $40bn in Q3). Which durations will it sell first? What happens if/when the ECB switches to selling, after its buying compensated for the Fed's light selling to begin with? ECB buying drops to Euro15bn from Euro30bn next month and goes to zero in January. The BoJ is maintaining bond purchasing at 80trn yen per year.

[mroalan] 19/9/2018 09:16

" country that steals and cheats.”
Well they should know.

[mount teide] 19/9/2018 08:55

Trumps $200bn of trade tariff's on Chinese goods triggers a response from China - the promise of significant economic reform.

Speaking at the World Economic Forum’s “summer Davos” in Tianjin, China's Premier Li said that China recognised that there were areas for improvement in the process of globalisation and international trade, and committed to further measures to open up Chinese markets to enable foreign companies to compete on a level playing field.

In a wide-ranging speech, Li Keqiang, sought to de-escalate the trade conflict by pledging significant further Chinese reform, including tax cuts, a commitment not to engage in competitive currency devaluation to boost exports, treating foreign firms equally with domestic ones, and a further crackdown on intellectual property theft.

Trump's team said "we're looking for him to convert the talk into action and put a stop to the stealing and cheating - "otherwise we will keep going until we win. Just look at the growth in our economy. We will keep reacting to a country that steals and cheats.”

[mroalan] 18/9/2018 16:50

of the world i would put China well ahead of the thinking nations,the usa has the resources ect but not the mental capacity to out think the Chinese who tend to think long term,the chump appears to be making it up as they go along.

[aleman] 18/9/2018 16:10

The new tariffs are predicted to slow Chinese GDP from 6.5% to 5.5-6.0%. Is that what going for the jugular does?

What if China delays or refuses deliveries to US electronics companies like Apple? Or says to BMW stop selling to the US or we stop buying from you? Or increases taxes/tariffs/etc. on US joint ventures in China? There is already talk of possible military overspill into the South China Sea, just to make the potential even worse. I don't think anyone has been anywhere near jugulars yet. They've just slapped each other in the face with gloves. Markets seem very complacent.

China is far from out of bullets. Saying they are is naive - or, perhaps, deliberate misrepresentation?

[mount teide] 18/9/2018 13:50

China is currently the US's largest goods trading partner with $635.4 billion in total (two way) goods during 2017.

Goods exports totaled $129.9 billion; goods imports totaled $505.5 billion. The U.S. goods trade deficit with China was $375.6 billion in 2017.

Since Trump's trade war rhetoric commenced in Jan 2018, the Shanghai Index has lost 19%, while the S&P 500 is up 7%. Ouch!

As a result of the Chinese continuing to ignore US requests to negotiate, Trump's latest move is really going for the jugular because its a two stage move of a 10% tariff rising to 25% on a further $200bn of goods. Backed up with the threat of an immediate stage 3 move - should the Chinese retaliate against US farmers - of a tariff on a further $267bn of other goods.

[mount teide] 18/9/2018 13:27

Aleman - Any self made billionaire that invests $2bn in buying a fleet of ships at fire-sale prices from distressed owners within a year of the bottom of a brutal 8 year shipping industry recession, which saw cape size bulk carrier charter rates drop from $240,000 a day at the 2008 peak to $2,800 in H1/2016 may be many things but naive is probably not one of them.

[aleman] 18/9/2018 13:02

China is "out of bullets" in trade war, quote attributed to Wilber Ross.

How very naive. I don't think China has got started yet. I suspect markets are going to get a big shock at some point.

[jtcod] 18/9/2018 07:58

This is handy currency depreciation/inflation calculator going back 100’s of years covering UK, US, Canada, Australia and EU.

[jtcod] 18/9/2018 07:14

Looking at recent history of large denomination notes, throughout the sixties, till 1969, the US had notes of $500, $1000, $5000 and $10000 in circulation. It sounds bonkers now. Organised crime must have loved those days.

[mroalan] 17/9/2018 19:18

you have to wonder why it appears the west fails to see gold as a major hard asset these days, and is prepared to watch it flow to the east cheaply? the usa as reserve currency allows them to print fiat into infinity at an alarming rate,so this being the case why arn,t they buying hard assets with printed fiat which costs them nothing,even gold with there free dollars?,so if as looks the case where all PM,s are manipulated by those that can,being the usa! i smell a rat somewhere,bear in mind the swiss franc is being printed and they are buying hard assets as is dragia.

[jtcod] 17/9/2018 18:06

I posted earlier that Russia had quadrupled its gold reserves since 2008.

China has tripled its gold reserves over the same duration.

[mroalan] 17/9/2018 17:47

BEEKS,i note your return with more criticism of another post,i await your wise words re my lack of social etiquette in my post,i can only suppose that my post hit home with yourself,it was not supposed to be a personal slight at any one just a general observation derived from my seventy odd years of experience,or as you see it lack of! i am open to constructive Briticism and debate for anything i post.

[mount teide] 17/9/2018 17:31

post 68526 - typo - Codelco's investment plan should have read $25bn over 5 years not $5bn - have amended accordingly.

[jtcod] 17/9/2018 17:31

Just received my first Christmas email from a company. It’s started

[jtcod] 17/9/2018 17:03

They are solid reasons I agree MT.

As I said a while back, I think you have a good chance of being proved right over the long haul, it’s just the near term that I am finding hard to ignore. As you have said before, the near term doesn’t worry you so we are both following our personal strategy and hopefully both will do well over time.

[mount teide] 17/9/2018 16:55

I agree JT - a severe market shock like 2007/8 certainly has the potential to drag almost every asset class down in the short term.

What will be driving the oil and copper markets over the decade ahead is the waterfall drop off in production development and exploration investment over the last half decade. All the low hanging fruit - easy to find and low cost to develop reserves - appears to have largely been found and developed into production.

Most copper mine operators target the high grade reserves initially to achieve early pay back - this is why most of the worlds larger mines have seen head grades fall alarmingly over the last two decades. Many globally important operators now need to mine close to double or more of the ore they did 20 years ago just to generate the same annual production.

Codelco, Chile's and the World's largest copper miner is currently executing a $25bn production development investment plan over 5 years at its globally important mines. How much does Codelco expect to increase production by after spending $25bn? TRY ZERO TONNES! Incredibly, the worlds largest copper miner has calculated that it needs to spend this vast sum in the hope of just maintaining output at its mines, such is the impact of falling production grades on its business.

[jtcod] 17/9/2018 16:02

The current situation on commodity prices is despite the benefit of unprecedented debt growth MT. Global debt now stands at 300% of WGP and interest rates are rising so it will be quite an accomplishment for commodities to buck the trend if we see another crisis I think.

There are times also when the outcome of Commodity and Equity values fall simultaneously. It normally happens during severe banking stress. 2008-2009 for instance copper fell 60% before recovering. 1928-1931 saw real commodity prices fall 51%.

[mount teide] 17/9/2018 15:55

BofA - it appears to have gone straight over your head that the highly regulated shipping industry was allowed to operate with 3.5% sulphur content heavy oil - they were acting entirely within Industry rules and regulation based on best scientific knowledge.

Unlike the diesel car industry which illegally manipulated the results of industry tests for financial gain, resulting in hundreds possibly thousands of premature deaths.

As soon as the shipping industry was provided with evidence that vessels operating in high numbers on routes close to land like the Malacca Straits between the Indian Ocean and South China Sea, were likely responsible for the increase in deaths in coastal communities though respiratory disease and cancer the shipping industry took action to reduce by seven fold the sulphur content of heavy fuel oil.


Additionally, four times more oil/fuel is used in road transport(freight and private travel) globally than by either the global shipping or airline industry.