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[jtcod] 11/6/2018 12:23

"...........less than 5% of UK businesses now trade directly with the EU"Can you identify the source of this statistic MT?

[mount teide] 11/6/2018 12:14

Remainers argue that Britain must be at the heart of Europe and remain in the EU to retain influence and shape policy - but in more than 20 years the UK has never managed to block a single piece of EU legislation.

Added to that is the fact that less than 5% of UK businesses now trade directly with the EU, and we have a massive £80bn trade deficit with it and import three times as many cars as we export to the EU

As Sir James Dyson said, the real risk to Britain's economy comes from staying in the EU and putting our future in the hands of the EU's unelected bureaucrats, adding that the notion of trade suffering as a result of Brexit was "absolute cobblers." How right he is - as confirmed by the EU ambassadors last weekend!

Nearly one-third of the world's trade in goods occurs between the EU and the United States - the largest and wealthiest market in the world - a relationship described by the 28 EU Nation state ambassadors over the weekend in a US/EU communique "as a partnership, that other countries can only dream of."

Wonderful. And it's all been achieved UNDER the rules of the World Trade Organisation. Oh, wait … isn't that exactly the system under which the UK would trade with the remaining members of the EU if our negotiations with Brussels collapsed without agreement and we "crashed out of the EU" to use a disingenuous project fear phrase? Indeed it is.

Looks like the multi nationals who benefit most from our $80bn trade deficit from the EU and have HQ's in its 1% tax havens of Luxembourg and Ireland are calling the Brexit shots!

The respected Cambridge University economist Dr Graham Gudgin said his analysis of the Treasury's long term Brexit forecasts were highly misleading - he said "Colleagues at Cambridge and Ulster Universities have replicated the Treasury long-term analysis - the only research groups to have done so - both revealed two major flaws in the Treasury calculations."

Based on the reality of Britain's trading relationship with the EU, the true estimates of the potential for reduced growth as a result of 'no deal', are, according to the Cambridge and Ulster Universities analysis, less than a quarter of the Treasury's forecast - a huge discrepancy. So alarmed was Dr Gudgin, he wrote to the Treasury - who refused to tell Dr Gudgin's team exactly what its new model is, and assumptions used, presumably to prevent itself from being subjected to proper independent analysis. A request for the data under the Freedom of Information Act has since been made.

This is extremely important because of the paralysing effect that the Treasury's analysis is having on our farcical 'negotiations' with Brussels - since the PM gave up on her previous mantra that 'no deal is better than a bad deal'.

Clearly, there are lies, damned lies and, EU,Treasury and Remainer statistics!

[mr roper] 10/6/2018 21:12

Over 10 pages of comments as well...crackers.

[maxk] 09/6/2018 12:56

Good find MT :-)

[mount teide] 09/6/2018 11:36

The Brexit meltdown has started!

Nauseatingly pretentious Liberal left Guardian blames Brexit for the appalling 'catastrophe' of London's Au pair shortage!


Au Pair shortage sparks childcare crisis for families as a 75% slump in applications is blamed on Brexit! - Guardian today! Written by a journalist called Rupert!


'While families who have an au pair are often characterised as well off, agencies say many are “ordinary̶1; people such as doctors and academics who work long hours, have long commutes or do not work nine to five, which means breakfast clubs and after-school clubs often do not benefit them. An au pair can be an affordable alternative to employing a nanny.

Many families are facing a childcare crisis following a 75% slump in the number of young Europeans willing to work as au pairs...'

I suspect that will be "many" in the sense of maybe a dozen or two.

I travel around the country a fair bit, but this Brexit 'catastrophe' facing the nation has never appeared on my radar, then again, most people have childcare arrangements rather than au-pairs.

'BAPAA chair Rebecca Haworth-Wood, who runs A2Z Au Pairs, says: “At the moment I have 78 families looking for an au pair, and I’d say 50% of those are not able to interview anyone!'

Talk about living in a bubble. What next? News of a catastrophic shortage of butlers, footmen and scullery maids !

Minimum wage Council estate residents in Labour strongholds oop North will be shaking their heads in total disbelief - thinking they must live on another planet, never mind country!

As one incredulous poster commented - "Thank you Rupert for bringing this nationally important issue to our attention - it's likely to be the straw that broke the camels back and force the Nation into demanding a second referendum!"

[mount teide] 08/6/2018 22:51

spitt - he may well be but i would trust him far more to deliver Brexit than May.

Incredibly the latest Westminster voting intention (4-5 June) gives Tories a 7% lead.
Con – 44%
Lab – 37%
LD – 8%
Oth – 10%

Brexit is going disastrously but, clearly the mental tipping point where the electorate think things are so bad they'll risk a hard left Corbyn government is presumably nowhere near being reached.

[spittingbarrel] 08/6/2018 17:16

MT - Don't disagree with your view of politicians generally but surely Boris is one of the nastiest, self serving little sh*ts ever to enter parliament.

[mount teide] 08/6/2018 17:05

Copper Market: A Tale of Two Roads & the Impact of Renewables

An interesting piece of research on the Copper Market by Goehring & Rozencwajg - in their recent Q1/2018 Natural Resource Market Commentary. (Starts on page 20)

Much of the rest of the research/commentary in the article is well worth a read too.

Déjà Vu: A History of the Electric Vehicle
Q1 2018 Natural Resource Market Overview
The “Energetics” of EVs
Oil Market Overview: Global Oil Market Continues to Tighten; $100 is Getting Closer
Our Visit to India: The Biggest Changes No One is Talking About
Copper Market: A Tale of Two Roads and the Impact of Renewables
Uranium: The Quiet Before the Storm
Precious Metals: Why We Still Favor Oil over Gold
North American Natural Gas: Supply Continues to Surge – Stay on the Sidelines Agriculture: Very Bullish Trends are Emerging





Barrons - Copper Prices Could Triple in 10 Years - 7th June 2018



' “The bull market has only started,” says Leigh Goehring, managing partner at Goehring & Rozencwajg Associates. “Strong demand from Asian countries is what’s going to push copper prices higher, and this is before we even begin to talk about renewables and [their] impact on global copper consumption.” Renewable energy sources like wind and solar require lots of copper for their equipment.

He believes a “huge bull market,” led by extremely strong demand and emerging problems surrounding global copper supply, is likely to resume shortly and play out in “multiple stages over the next five to 10 years.”

The current bull market started after copper prices hit bottom in January 2016 at a little below $2, and it could see prices trade at $10 or more before it’s over, says Goehring.'

[spittingbarrel] 08/6/2018 14:28

MT - I'm not expecting you to change your view of Brexit anymore than you'll change my view, I'm just surprised that you'd be happy with a serial liar like Johnson as PM, Gove maybe (although having met him I found him a slime ball), but at least he isn't a serial, self centred liar.

[mr roper] 08/6/2018 14:04

MT, Shami's son is at Dulwich College. 18k pa.

noone does hypocrisy like a politician

[mount teide] 08/6/2018 11:45

PM May's first huge negotiating mistake was to say "we want a deep and special relationship with the EU after Brexit".

No we don't. We want the minimum possible relationship consistent with trading together and nothing more - in effect what the British people signed up to in 1975.

By definition, the vote was to leave, so PM May's comment was completely the wrong initial impression to give the EU.

From that first sentence, May had lost control of the 'negotiations'.

She should have said: "We'll now prepare for an exit and future relationship on WTO terms, but will use the 2 year leaving period of Article 50 to see if we can negotiate an FTA, and solve the Irish border issue. Otherwise our relationship will move to the same basis as the United States and China".

But that would have meant delivering the Brexit people voted for, initially described by Donald Tusk no less as "leaving the Single Market, Customs Union and ECJ" before May and her senior civil servants told him to stop being so stupid and to keep his mouth shut - "we are working with Martin Selmayr and his 30,000 EU Bureaucrats to deliver BRINO"!

[mount teide] 08/6/2018 11:26

'So why are the 20% of MP's who are pro Brexit and having been mandated by the public to leave the EU being so quiescent?'

Because they know the PM and remainer establishment are going to get their way - BRINO - political survival says it would't be a good idea for Brexiteer MP's to be too vocal arguing against it.

Nigel Farage a month after the referendum result said he was already seeing clear evidence of the establishment wagons circling and that the 'great brexit betrayal' was already fully in motion behind the scenes - how right he was!

[fireplace22] 08/6/2018 11:11

If May goes the probability is that her successor will be accused of having no mandate (other than being tory leader) and an election will ensue. The Tories are too fretful of their own position to risk Corbyn being elected.

[fireplace22] 08/6/2018 11:07

So why are the 20% of MP's who are pro Brexit and having been mandated by the public to leave the EU being so quiescent?