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[jtcod] 20/6/2018 06:29

China's tech index the Shenzhen was down almost 6% overnighthTTps://www.cnbc.com/video/2018/06/19/asian-and-european-markets-fall-sharply-on-trade-tensions.html

[captainfatcat] 19/6/2018 22:00

The mind boggles.

Child separations: Trump faces extreme backlash from public and his own party

The separations occur when, under a “zero tolerance” immigration policy, adults are arrested for crossing the border illegally. As children cannot be held in an adult jail, they are held separately.

According to the Department of Homeland Security, from 5 May to 9 June 2,342 children were separated from 2,206 adults

[captainfatcat] 19/6/2018 19:12

Football related

On one foot

Nike has withdrawn its supply of boots to Iranian football team ahead of the World Cup because of new US sanctions.

On the other foot

Nike has pointed out that any player can buy Nike products, and that the company is also permitted to sponsor Iranian athletes who don't live in their homeland. Nine members of the squad play in Iran, while the rest play for clubs abroad.

Seems a most ridiculous situation.

[jtcod] 19/6/2018 19:09

Hope the sports day went well btw. :-)

[jtcod] 19/6/2018 19:08

CFC thanks I shall enjoy looking through them

[chestnuts] 19/6/2018 16:11

Some one asked about gold ,

Today gold fell out of the bottom what you would describe as a bottom trend line of a flat top triangle, but still too soon to say which way its going ,

Silver is still in no mans land but just above bottom trend line of triangle

[mroalan] 19/6/2018 15:56

Summery report here,you can download the full report also. mro.

[captainfatcat] 19/6/2018 15:47

JTC apologies for late reply just back from daughters schools sports day.


numbers came from here



and here

[blusteradjuster] 19/6/2018 15:04

If you think of TSLA like Amazon, it all makes sense.

AMZN was written off again and again - all the while steadily trouncing the competition.



3. Tesla’s vehicles have large margins.

A common myth is that Tesla loses money on every car they sell. This can only be arrived at by the most naive of calculations: taking their quarterly losses and dividing by the number of vehicles sold. But Tesla has been spending massive amounts of money on capex in order to build huge factories and expand their store, service and charging networks in advance of the flood of new Model 3s. Rapidly growing companies run negatives (see Amazon), and it’d be utterly irresponsible of them not to. No investor in such a company wants the company to start paying dividends when they’re small; they want them running at as much of a loss as they can sustain while they divert all of their funds into scaleup.

So how does Tesla actually do on a per-vehicle basis? To that, we turn to the quarterly reports. Before Model 3 production became significant — aka, just S and X sales — Tesla was earning a 25% non-GAAP margin / 27,9% GAAP margin in their automotive division. These are very healthy margins. As Model 3 production ramped up — and famously encountered difficulty — Tesla’s gross margins fell, bottoming out at 13,8% non-GAAP and 18,3% GAAP, before rising back to 18,8% non-GAAP and 19,7% GAAP.

Now, working against Tesla’s budget sheets has always been two big line items: research and development, and SG&A (Sales, General & Administrative expense). The first, however, rises little to none in proportion to the volume of vehicles being manufactured. The latter rises somewhat in proportion to manufacturing volume, but less than linearly, and more to the point you have to pay much of it in advance of reaching high volumes.

[jtcod] 19/6/2018 14:53

BAAll the time they continue to lose money the key is not the technology it is the finance to fund it. I somehow think the technology and perhaps the brand may last but the benefit will be for other shareholders under a different holding company. More likely one of their competitors. Which ever way it goes it is always interesting with Musk.

[zho] 19/6/2018 14:52

>>it can only be done on behalf of government with QE as far as I can see as the banks would be bust under such a scheme>>

Okay, thanks. I thought you might say that. I'll have to put on my biggest thinking hat to ponder the likely consequences.

[blusteradjuster] 19/6/2018 14:50

Indeed russ,

There could be a few Kodak-in-slow-mo stories amongst established carmakers if they don’t get their acts together.

Just look at the carnage in retail where incumbents (MKS, HoF, DEB etc) were too slow to embrace online..

[homebrewruss] 19/6/2018 14:45

On electric cars, I was talking to someone who works at Dyson the other day and apparently much of the company resources have now been moved over to their electric car project and anyone who is left working on their current/other products feels like they are getting left behind.

[jtcod] 19/6/2018 14:43

Zho it can only be done on behalf of government with QE as far as I can see as the banks would be bust under such a scheme. I kind of think that's where we are going anyway tbh. Same as the utility companies as far as forcing it through and taking equity.

[blusteradjuster] 19/6/2018 14:43

The key is the battery-pack (cost/range/manufacturing scale).

The incumbents aren’t even close..

[mattjos] 19/6/2018 14:39

Have assumed same for Musk & TSLA for a long time but, he is managing to keep the hot air in the balloon.
So many customers & followers seem complete zealots .. it's like he is a cult leader.

Soon enough BMW, Mercedes, VW will challenge this space.

However, most of the global auto-manufacturers are worried about the sector. They all make good money on I/c engines (30% of profits) & there are high barriers to entry. Electric motors have low barriers to entry and an established manufacturing base already. I still think it is probably too early to call who will be the long term winners .. clearly branding is important.

Probably like 90% of consumers now, the complete lack of clarity with regards petrol/diesel cars and air quality charging means I will not be a buyer of a new car now for a long time - maybe a classic car instead makes more sense. That said, some of the performance cars being made now may well be future collectors items as the 'last great V8/V12/Turbo' ever made.

[blusteradjuster] 19/6/2018 14:37

JTC,

SpaceX? Model 3? You’ve got to be kidding.


I’ll save that post for later referback..

[jtcod] 19/6/2018 12:30

I cannot help but think this is the beginning of the end for Tesla. I have never trusted Musk. Maybe I am being unfair but he reminds me of a David Robson type. A storyteller, creating very little of tangible value, whilst living a lavish lifestyle off the back of selling promises of mountains of Jam tomorrow.hTTps://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44531777

[jtcod] 19/6/2018 12:10

...I'll don my hard hat! :-)

[jtcod] 19/6/2018 12:07

ZhoTo my way of thinking, high private debt levels of 200% of GDP and higher put an economy into a straight jacket that affects spending and therefore governments ability to collect tax. I think this could only come about following an extreme crises but it would be a longer term solution than what we have seen so far imo.So I would consider a tiered debt relief system measured against disposable income. Having been a banker, it really sticks in the claw that people who have been less than prudent would benefit the most but I do see it as for the greater good. For companies I would advocate a more focussed assessment depending upon each sectors contribution to the economy and again tiered to average profits. I wouldn't rule out state ownership or at least part ownership for instance with utilities. An example in the UK is the National Grid. Imo totally mismanaged and raped of cash whilst running up very large debt obligations. I would force a debt for equity swap in favour of the tax payer. Those industries that really are not critical to the economy could be left high and dry and open to fire-sale acquisitions. It would be far from perfect I know but I think it would be a better long term solution because without it we are facing 30yrs or more of fudging to stay above water.

[zho] 19/6/2018 11:36

>>With regard to the next crises, whenever that may be, the only long term solution I can see is debt forgiveness. It seems to me all other roads are simply fudges.>>

Which classes of debt do you think would be included?

[jtcod] 19/6/2018 11:35

That's a hell of a statistic! Do you have any more detail on that CFC?