Jpmorgan Japanese Invest... Share Discussion Threads

[haveagoodday] 19/7/2007 22:05

I can see a falling wedge in the chart, MACD has been rising as the price has been falling - postive divergence.

Falling wedges are always difficult to call, but worth bearing in mind should JFJ start moving upwards. If confirmed, the rise would be fast. On the other hand I could be completely wrong!!




free stock charts from www.advfn.com

[haveagoodday] 19/7/2007 21:56

Hello Wattie, nice to see you here too.

Latest tonight from the US, BS $50 - $100bn losses. There's still $1000bn of cheap mortgage deals ending this autumn / winter / spring. Expect carry trade to be unwound rapidly. lots in FT,
rgds
___________________________________________________________



Last Updated: Thursday, 19 July 2007, 19:55 GMT 20:55 UK

Fed warns of $100bn credit losses

Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke has warned that the crisis in the US sub-prime lending market could cost up to $100bn. In a second day of testimony to Congress, Mr Bernanke said credit losses associated with sub-prime mortgage failures were "significant".

Wall Street is nervous about the exposure of banks and other lenders to the riskier sub-prime market.

Earlier this month Bear Stearns bailed out two sub-prime focused hedge funds.

It has since said one of them has "very little value" and the other is now worthless.

Downbeat note

Fears that the downturn in the housing market, prompted by more people's inability to pay their mortgages, will cause instability and retrenchment in the wider economy have grown in recent weeks.

Mr Bernanke, in two days of testimony before US legislators, has sounded a persistently downbeat note on the state of the housing market and the woes of the sub-prime sector, which have led to the collapse of about 30 lenders.

More than a million Americans lost their homes last year

Senator Robert Menendez

"The credit losses associated with sub-prime have come to light and they are fairly significant," Mr Bernanke told a Senate Committee.

"Some estimates are in the order of between $50bn and $100bn of losses."

The Fed's handling of the sub-prime market, which it regulates, came under fire from Senators who argued it should have done more to protect vulnerable consumers from inappropriate and improper mortgage practices.

"More than a million Americans lost their homes last year," said Senator Robert Menendez.

"In my mind, this is not just simply a time for suggestions, it is a time for solutions."

Mr Bernanke said the Fed was reviewing current regulations on lending practices in a "responsible" manner.

Wider problems?

The Fed remained "alert" for any signs that housing weakness may destabilise the economy as a whole, Mr Bernanke added.

It has already acknowledged the impact of reduced activity in the housing market on consumer spending, cutting its forecast for economic growth this year.

It has also said it expects the unemployment rate to rise from 4.5% to 4.75% by year-end.

Despite the impact of the crisis in the sub-prime mortgage market, the US economy has performed better in the second quarter of the year than the first.

The economy has continued to create new jobs at a healthy clip while the number of unemployment benefit claimants is now at its lowest since early May.

But the Conference Board, publishing its latest economic analysis on Thursday, said that it expected economic growth to slow in the next few months.

[tiraider] 19/7/2007 15:48

JPM bought back another 100,000

JPMorgan Japanese Investment Trust plc has today purchased 100,000 ordinary
shares for cancellation at 222.90 pence per share.
______________________________________________________________

solid support building at 221. NAV 249.5 today.

With the collapse of the Bear Stearn funds beginning to spread to other markets, and more hedgies going down, the carry trade could be nearer to reversing than we think.

[a0148009] 18/7/2007 12:01

Sterling has appreciated 25% against the Yen over the last eighteen months from

Y200 to Y250 worth 60p or so on the share price

It wont always be like that the 'carry trade' will get so out of control something will happen to call the turn.

Also company buying in treasury stock in the past their timing has been good.

[tiraider] 18/7/2007 10:53

Bear Sterns funds "written off" could spark off the carry trade unwinding
_____________________________________________________________________

Metals - Gold up as the dollar falls to new all-time low against the euro UPDATE
(Updates prices, adds details)
LONDON (Thomson Financial) - Gold was up slightly in early trade as the
dollar fell to a new all-time low against the euro, though gains were capped by
waning interest from physical buyers as prices rose.
Gold tends to move in the opposite direction to the dollar, as it as seen as
an alternative asset to the most common reserve currency.
"The tone has been far more bullish this morning... as the dollar lurched
lower following reports of hedge fund losses from Bear Stearns, increasing
speculation that investors are losing faith in the greenback," said
TheBullionDesk.com analyst James Moore.
At 10.45 am, spot gold was trading at 667.60 usd an ounce, compared with 665
usd in late New York trade yesterday.
However, gold's gains have been limited by low levels of buying by jewellers
in the seasonally quiet summer months, and the high prices putting off bargain
hunters.
"I don't think gold has been as responsive as it could have been," said
Barclays analyst Suki Cooper. "It's a slow period for gold, unlike Q1 when we
saw really strong physical demand."
Market players are also poised ahead of US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben
Bernanke's semi-annual testimony to Congress, and the release of US core
inflation data later today, as they look for clues to the future direction of
the dollar.
Oil prices have also eased from close to all-time record highs, weighing
slightly on bullion.
Gold tends to rise in line with oil prices, as it is seen as an inflationary
hedge against higher energy costs.
However, with the dollar continuing to be placed under pressure, some
analysts see gold prices continuing to rise in the short-term.
"There's probably still room for a move to the upside - gold prices have a
stronger correlation with the dollar than with oil at the moment," said Cooper
at Barclays.
Among other precious metals, platinum is flat at 1,308 usd, underpinned by
news that South African mine workers rejected a pay offer from Northam Platinum,
increasing the likelihood of strike action.
Its sister metal palladium fell to 361 usd against 366 usd.
Silver was edged up to 12.96 usd against 12.93 usd.

[watwungyi] 18/7/2007 08:23

By tracker fund hosede. HSBC Japanese tracker funds are there. But the probelm is weak yen. it needs to get strengthened.

[hosede] 17/7/2007 11:19

Its very frustrating (to put it mildly!)to see the NI225 climbing steadily while JFJ and BGFD which I also hold are going nowhere - got out of FJV as it was even worse. NAVs quoted in Yen would be a useful addition - then at least you could quantify the currency part of the loss

[watwungyi] 14/7/2007 12:31

haveagoodday,

good to see you here. i am not a veteran investor as you said i appear to claim to be. btw, i almost finished reading the shipley's japanese money tree, a good book from ft which i would recommend anyone interested in investing in japan.
the author pointed out interesting sectors to look value in particulars. real estate and technology with strong protection by means of intellectual property rights.
Some key events to look out. Japanese investors've been sending their money abraod because of their perception that valued can't be found in the country. so there's a large capital outflow which weakens yen and result in unattractive returns from domestic investment. but that is going to change as japanese economy shows consistent signs of sustained recovery and jap investors will take profit from overseas investment and put their money in domestic investment and that should be good for japanese investment.
and next is interest rates rise by BoJ which should be a good thing, first many companies are valued on the assumption of deflation, which means market cap for the companies are less than their NAV. But interest rate hike means their worth should be revalued and boost share price, this should reinforce capital inflow and visciious circle began.
so two things we need to look out, capital inflow and interest rate( last week it was 8 1) so there is no certainty in August decision. But it will come soon.

two invst trust in particular: jfj and melchoir jap trust, some may opt for fidelity jap values. anyone any interesting investment here. but for me for the next ten years, vietnam(+southeast asia) and japan are good places to invest in Asia pacific, and aus and nz to a lesser extent due to seemingly undiminshing commodity bull market.

by the way, i have been making heavy losses betting against dow jones and ftse though i haven't closed my short positions. thursday rally was more of hedge funds desperately trying to cover their shor hedges and that reinforced the gains which follow, unfortunately for me, the following day. I am not panic but apparently nervous. next week there will be lots of inflation data to come out and i don't think we'll see any positve for those expecting rate cut because friday import prices data show they are on the increase. and wsj reported china's disinflation pressure is waning. but of course it's market interpretation which counts. and i am increasingly nervous.

fingers crossed and good luck all

[tiraider] 11/7/2007 12:02

THE NET ASSET VALUES IN PENCE WITH DEBT VALUED AT PAR AS AT MARKET CLOSE ON 10TH
JULY 2007 WERE AS FOLLOWS:
JPMORGAN JAPANESE INVESTMENT TRUST PLC: 255.29

Big jump in NAV in 1 day.

GP;
agree some turmoil ahead (already started). I would rather be invested in Japan than in Europe, UK or US at the moment. Only holding gilts / cash in those areas.

Last year has been disappointing. I've had a reasonable run from '01. Doubled my holding in JFJ yesterday.

Good luck
rgds

[greenpastures] 11/7/2007 08:40

The problem I think is that JFJ has bet on smaller companies catering to the domestic market whereas it is the large exporters benefiting from the lower yen where the action is at the moment.

An ageing population is not going to help the domestic market either.

An unwinding of the yen carry trade should lift the yen but any benefits from that side of things may well be negated by the potential turmoil a rapid unwinding of that trade would do to world credit markets.

I thought the time had come two years ago to invest in Japan but so far that has not been one of my better investment decisions.

[tiraider] 10/7/2007 11:17

THE NET ASSET VALUES IN PENCE WITH DEBT VALUED AT PAR AS AT MARKET CLOSE ON 9TH
JULY 2007 WERE AS FOLLOWS:
JPMORGAN JAPANESE INVESTMENT TRUST PLC: 245.37

I see JFJ was in the market yesterday for 250,00 of it's own shares. Chart seems to be finding good support at 220 level. JFJ must think it's good value at this level.

[haveagoodday] 09/7/2007 19:45

Post from NRK thread. The poster appears to be a US trader who claims to be an investment veteran.

He likes JFJ anyway..........


watwungyi - 7 Jul'07 - 11:14 - 486 of 492


hello fellas,

i was just so bored yesterday and ended up spending a few hours at waterstone. two interesting books in particular caught my attn: tony bolton's new book and japanese money tree. the latter i took home for weekend reading as i decided not to be at sw19 as anna is out. one line that caught me from bolton's book is this: (well i don't remember exacq quote) the purchase price you paid for a stock is immaterial, it's only psychological, if things do not seem to be going well, just snap it instantly. i suddenly remeber those lovely charming people sticking with nrk. :-) so guys this is a useful piece of advice from an investment veteran.
second book is very interesting. equites in europe, emerging markets and real estate all look so boringly high. and japs market has been really drawing my interest lately. that book sort of try to explain why we should look at japs. but sadly i don't find what i reall want to find out about japs. it's yen. the declining yen has been eroding my gains in jap truts. and i want to know the likelihood of yen strengthening. sadly couldn't find so far. but if you want to put some money in jap, i think jp morgan japanese trust and melchoir japanese(mlt or mjt) are worth looking. both trading at good discount. long term buy i think.

gool luck all,

[haveagoodday] 08/7/2007 11:29

Japan is hitching a ride with China
By Liam Halligan, Sunday Telegraph
Last Updated: 12:50am BST 08/07/2007

This Thursday, it's the Bank of Japan's turn to decide if interest rates should rise. But, whatever happens, the world's second-largest economy seems to be sustaining its long, gradual recovery from the stagnation of the 1990s.

The closely watched Tankan index of business confidence, published last week, showed a sharp rise in firms' profit forecasts for the rest of the year. In particular, big Japanese exporters are benefiting from the weak yen - now, in real terms, at its lowest for 20 years.

In February, Japanese rates rose to 0.5 per cent - the second increase since the infamous zero-rate policy ended in July 2006. And with the economy set to expand by 2.6 per cent this year, rates will soon hit 0.75 per cent. If that doesn't happen this week, Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui may signal a rise in August.

Japan still has serious problems. The consumer price index just fell marginally - a chilling reminder of the deflationary spiral which once dragged the economy down.

But the Land of the Rising Sun should continue its long march back to rude health. That's because China has recently usurped America as Japan's biggest trading partner. So even if the US hits the skids, an ongoing Asian boom will keep Japan on the mend.

[knowing] 04/7/2007 20:44

Japan Tankan survey shows robust 2Q business sentiment

Monday, July 02, 2007 5:10:46 AM ET
newratings.com

LONDON, July 2 (newratings.com) – Japanese business sentiment continues to be high, according to data published on Monday in the Bank of Japan's Tankan survey.

The Tankan survey showed that the diffusion index of sentiment among large manufacturers stood at 23 in the second quarter, flat at the first quarter's level. The diffusion index for large non-manufacturers was 22, again sequentially flat. The strong reading of the widely watched index did not have a significant impact on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, with the TOPIX index up merely 0.31%, or 5.48 points, at 1,780.36. The Bank of Japan had surveyed 10,839 enterprises of all sizes in the latest survey.

[knowing] 01/7/2007 22:52

Tokyo shares seen retesting 7-year high as first-half gains may extend


TOKYO (Thomson Financial) - The Tokyo stock market is expected to extend its
first-half gains into the second half, propelling the benchmark Nikkei 225 index
toward 20,000, its highest level in seven years and more than 10 percent
above the close on Friday.
In a continuation of trends seen in the first half, the industrialization of
the so-called BRIC countries
-- Brazil, Russia, India and China -- and a firm economic outlook in other parts
of the world are
expected to encourage investors to buy shares of exporters, while concerns about
the strength of
domestic demand remain, analysts said.
In the first half, Hitachi Zosen, Japan Steel Works and Sumitomo Metal
Mining enjoyed the biggest percentage gains among Nikkei components as investors
eyed growing demand in the BRIC countries and greater Asia for industrial
materials and cargo transportation.
Those gains helped power the blue-chip market gauge to a 5.3 pct gain to
18,138.36 on Friday from
17,225.83 on December 29, its last trading day in 2006.
Not all stocks took part in the rally. Shinsei Bank, Casio Computer and Sky
Perfect JSAT suffered the steepest percentage declines, hit by earnings worries.
The Nikkei touched a seven-year closing high of 18,240.30 on June 21, after
overcoming the global stock market turmoil triggered by a sharp sell-off in the
Chinese market in late February. The steep decline on the Shanghai stock
exchange caused the Nikkei to shed its year-to-date gains and sent it to a March
5 closing low of 16,642.25, a full 8.6 pct below the February 26 close of
18,215.35.
For the rest of the year, the Nikkei is likely to advance further into
territory not seen since mid-2000, as the benefits of a weaker yen are felt,
boosting investor confidence in the export-oriented Japanese economy, analysts
said.
"The market will probably trend higher to a little above or below 20,000 on
the Nikkei by the year-end. This is based strictly on the condition that the yen
stays near current levels and thereby leads to the upgrading of earnings
projections by major exporters," said Hiroyuki Fukunaga, strategist at Rakuten
Securities.
The dollar has climbed to just below 124 yen in recent sessions, up almost
eight yen from its March level with half of the four-month gain coming after
Japanese companies had hammered out earnings projections that were based on an
outlook for a firmer yen.
By sector, producers of steel and other industrial materials, as well as
shipping companies and shipbuilders, are expected to remain investor favorites
in light of strong demand from BRIC countries and broader Asia.
"Steel makers and marine transporters are best placed to benefit from
surging demand in such emerging countries as China. Nippon Steel and Mitsui OSK
Lines, the leaders of these sectors, are a must to have in portfolios," said one
trader at a European asset management firm.
Nippon Steel has forecast that its revenues would expand 11 pct to 4.76 trln
yen in the current fiscal year. Mitsui OSK has forecast an 8 pct rise in
revenues to 1.70 trln yen in the year to March 2008.
Shares of carmakers, such as Toyota Motor, may also gain in popularity as
the yen weakens, raising hopes that these companies that are heavily dependent
on offshore demand may beat the earnings projections made in April and May,
analysts said.
A weak yen buoys the yen-converted value of earnings received in foreign
currencies.
Shares of high tech companies, on the other hand, may not enjoy as much
investor interest despite their deep ties to demand abroad, as they are faced
with stiffer competition from players in not only the US and Europe but also
Asia, analysts said.
Bridgestone, the world's largest tire maker, on Wednesday lifted its
earnings guidance for the year to
December, attributing its improved outlook to the weaker-than-expected yen so
far this year, as well as surprisingly firm sales in the US.
Analysts said Bridgestone's announcement is the first sign of the impact the
weak yen is having and bodes well for all the carmakers, the major constituents
of the Nikkei index.
"There is a possibility that the yen's recent weakness may lift earnings
sharply" at carmakers, while their business fundamentals have also improved,
thanks partly to the increasing weight of China and other emerging markets, said
Shinya Naruse, a car-sector analyst at Nomura Securities.
Rising gasoline prices have made fuel-efficient cars popular, and this
should also help Japanese carmakers escape much of the impact of softer demand
in the US where top Japanese carmakers generate roughly 60 pct of their
operating profits, he said.
The Nomura analyst on Wednesday lifted his investment recommendation on the
auto sector to bullish from neutral, and said car shares are broadly undervalued
at current levels.
But although most analysts are bullish on the stock market, they caution
that political uncertainty may pressure the Nikkei towards 17,500 or slightly
lower before the upper house election on July 29.
"The election, along with a probable rate hike by the Bank of Japan, is the
most significant event when looking at the market's prospects through the
year-end," said the trader at the European asset manager.
Investors are wary that the vote may sap Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's ruling
Liberal Democratic Party and drag on the government's efforts to reform the
Japanese economy.
Reforms have been a key market driver in recent years. The Nikkei began its
advance in October 2005 when the Parliament passed a bill to privatize the
postal services, a plan proposed by Abe's predecessor, the reformist prime
minister Junichiro Koizumi. At that time, the Nikkei was trading around 13,000.
"If a loss by the LDP in the vote removes foreign investors' hopes in
Japan's chances to reform, they may unload the holdings built in positive
response to the passing of the postal services reform bill. That would be a
major pressure on the market," Rakuten's Fukunaga said.
The lack of a steady recovery in consumer demand may continue to be a source
of concerns for investors as it has been for the Bank of Japan which aims to
"normalize" its super low interest rates.
Even so, investors expect the central bank to raise its overnight call rate
target by 25 basis points to 0.75 pct after the election, most likely in August.
"Share prices have factored in the possibility of one rate hike this year,
while uncertainties remain on chances of a second move," said Tsuyoshi Segawa,
strategist at Shinko Securities.
Investors will monitor closely the effects of one or two rate hikes on the
economy and on the yen, analysts said.
The best timing to launch into buying will be around September if a possible
August rate hike fails to spark the active unwinding of yen carry trades, which
would cause the yen to strengthen again.
"An upgrading of earnings projections by carmakers and other exporters in or
around September
will trigger the buying spree which I expect to send the Nikkei rising towards
its highs for the year,"
Rakuten's Fukunaga said.

(1 usd = 123.21 yen)

[greenpastures] 26/5/2007 00:48

Thanks ISA23. At least that report is encouraging.

[isa23] 23/5/2007 11:09

Deutsche Bank's Musha Calls Japanese Stocks `A Major Bargain'
By Patrick Rial
May 23 (Bloomberg) -- Investors should snap up Japanese shares because they are inexpensive by four different measures, according to Ryoji Musha, chief investment officer at the Japanese brokerage unit of Deutsche Bank AG.
``Right now the Japanese market is a major bargain,'' Musha said, speaking at a conference in Tokyo hosted by Deutsche Bank. ``In terms of stock prices, interest rates, the weak yen and the cost of goods, it's cheap.''
Last week, shares in Japan reached the lowest level in six months relative to the price of U.S. stocks, according to a report released yesterday by JPMorgan Securities Japan Co.
Long term interest rates have been on a gradual decline for years, even as central banks such as the U.S. Federal Reserve conducted a two-year drive to tighten credit, Musha said, recalling former Fed chairman Alan Greenspan has called the lack of a market response to monetary policy a ``conundrum.''
While the gap between intended monetary policy effects and actual interest rates would normally be a warning sign for investors, this time it isn't, Musha, 57, said. Rates should remain low as companies continue to earn more money than they spend on investments, relieving pressure on borrowing costs, he said.
``Looking at the excessive savings of corporations worldwide, it seems declining interest rates is a logical trend and one that is sustainable,'' Musha said.
The yen has weakened 2.2 percent against the dollar so far this year and has fallen to a record low against the euro 17 times in 2007. A weaker yen makes Japanese shares cheaper for foreign investors and increases the value of companies' dollar- denominated sales when converted back into local currency.
Costs Under Control
Japanese companies are also benefiting from a lack of inflation that is helping to keep input prices down. Japan's core consumer prices, which exclude fresh food, didn't increase on a year-over-year basis during the first three months of this year. The April figure, which will be released on May 25, is expected to show a 0.1 percent drop, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
Musha began covering Japanese stocks as an analyst in Daiwa Securities Co.'s research division in Tokyo in 1973. He was a global strategist at Daiwa's New York branch from 1988 to 1993. He joined the Tokyo unit of Deutsche Bank in January 1997 and was ranked the top Japanese equity strategist by Institutional Investor in 2002.
To contact the reporter for

[tiraider] 09/4/2007 13:50

Close): Japanese shares had another strong session, helped by Friday's US jobs figures, which calmed fears about the weakness of the US economy.
Sony and other exporters benefited from the rise in the value of the dollar against the yen.

The Nikkei index closed 259 points or 1.5% higher at 17743.8.

Pentax shares rose more than 9% after Hoya Corp said it would make a tender offer for the manufacturer of cameras and medical equipment.

[tiraider] 12/3/2007 09:31

Last Updated: Monday, 12 March 2007, 07:16 GMT

Japan's growth rate picks up pace

Consumers and companies are more optimistic about their future
Japan's economy, the world's second largest, has grown more quickly than many experts forecast, underlining its emergence from years of stagnation.
The rate of growth was 1.3% in the three months from October to December, up from 1.2% in the previous quarter, Cabinet Office figures showed.

On an annual basis growth was 5.5%, the quickest for three years.

Japan's economy has turned around as consumers and companies have picked up spending and exports have increased.

A separate Cabinet Office report showed that households had become more confident about the outlook for incomes and jobs, with the government's index climbing to 48.4 in February, from 48.1 in January.

Price problems

But analysts said the latest growth figures were unlikely to prompt another rise in rates as concerns remained that that higher borrowing costs could stall the country's economic recovery.

Politicians have asked the Bank of Japan (BOJ) not to rush to raise interest rates for fear that it would stop consumer and company spending in its tracks.

Japan has only just increased its main borrowing cost from almost zero to 0.5%, the highest level in a decade.

At the same time, many analysts are predicting that February's consumer price figures will show that prices actually dropped last month.

"The BOJ won't raise rates for a while if it thinks about prices," said Takeshi Minami of Norinchukin Research Institute.

"Though it seemed to place greater emphasis on rectifying ultra-low rates and preventing an asset bubble when it raised rates last month," he added.

According to the latest government figures one of the main drivers of growth was a 3.1% increase in the capital spending, up from a 2.2% preliminary estimate.

[haveagoodday] 09/3/2007 07:37

(Close): The recovery of Japan Nikkei index continued, albeit slowly, with a gain of 73.73 points or 0.43% to close the week at 17,164.
Shares were lifted by the weak yen, which boosts the country's exporters, and a strong orders for machinery.

The stock of consumer lenders like Credit Saison also recovered from their recent losses.

Investors were heartened by the general upswing on global markets, although they were wary ahead of US jobs data.

[greenpastures] 05/3/2007 11:54

That's due to some unwinding of the carry trade. Not sure how much unwinding is still likely to happen. Locals tend to invest in overseas bonds for higher yields to fund retirement. How much of the total carry trade is due to foreigners such as hedge funds borrowing in yen, does any one know? It is likely to be latter that are having to buy back yen.

What are the effects likely to be on Japanese exporters and world wide interest rates?

[tiraider] 05/3/2007 09:18

Yen is in overdrive

[tiraider] 28/2/2007 13:47

Almost certainly due to rising Yen, NAV up again at 287p