Jpmorgan Japanese Invest... Share Discussion Threads

[watwungyi] 09/9/2007 14:06

last week, i went for a walking tour arranged by british library which is making a sort of awareness campaign about enviroment. there i met a student from japan studying at soas. and out of curiosity, i asked if she would go back to jap for job or find one here. she said she's already got a job from japan and said employment prospect are getting better and better. baby-boomers are retiring and the surging of jap's economy means japs are entering a new phase.
secondly, japs are gradually changing their tight immigration policy and the declining population will eventually force them to accept more naturalization, not only talented brazillian footballers. so prospect seems ok for jap's future. recent data though are weak and crisis in western markets have dragged the share price. but prospects are good for long termers.

[greenpastures] 23/8/2007 12:48

looks like the market is regaining its confidence and so much for me thinking the carry trade was coming to its end. Doesn't appear to be happening just yet.

[greenpastures] 19/8/2007 11:15

I sold out the week before last. I am watching the situation at the moment. I do wonder what impact the financial turmoil will have on the real economy.

A cut in US consumption will have its impact I think on Asian economies even if they have become more sustaining over the last few years.

Plus the ending of the carry trade which is now probably in sight will be also hit Japanese exporters too.

Going long on the yen is probably a good bet but don't take my word for it. I am not a currency expert nor a financial adviser. It is only an opinion.

[hectorp] 15/8/2007 14:03

I sold the Fund a couple of weeks ago and now I am fortunatly out of it but look to return soon.
The chart ONCE it rallies has a great deal of upside to cover.
We also need Japan's new main export partner China to be strong in the coming months.
I suppose too the falling off in carry trade is good for yen. That should give an extra boost to the Fund's returns in due course.

[haveagoodday] 11/8/2007 12:24

Low-yield yen proves winner
By Peter Garnham

Published: August 10 2007 11:57 | Last updated: August 10 2007 22:34

The yen was the big winner in the currency markets this week as the continuing fallout from problems in the credit markets saw investors rush to take risk off the table.

[knowing] 06/8/2007 21:47

IMF ups its 2007 growth forecast for Japan to 2.6 pct from 2.3 pct earlier


WASHINGTON (Thomson Financial) - Japan's economy is expected to grow faster
than earlier thought both this year and next, the International Monetary Fund
said today.
The IMF now projects Japan's economy will grow at 2.6 pct annual rate this
year, faster than the 2.3 pct projected in April. Japanese GDP is expected to
hit 2.0 pct in 2008, a tick higher than the 1.9 pct rate predicted in April.
The higher growth projections stem from stronger-than-expected first quarter
for Japan this year, said Daniel Citrin, IMF deputy director and mission chief
for Japan.
The IMF report, released after consultations with Japanese officials in May,
said Japan's economic expansion has entered into its sixth year, and that
Japan's banking system continues to improve, corporate profits are up, and
inflation has been kept down.
"The outlook remains favorable, with growth increasingly driven by domestic
demand," the IMF said. "The risks are evenly balanced with downside risks mainly
from the external side, while a tightening labor market could feed into faster
consumption."
In the medium term, the IMF predicted economic growth in Japan to dip below
2.0 pct starting after 2009.
The report said the largest downside risks for Japan are an "unanticipated
slowdown" in the US, volatile energy prices, and "global financial
turbulence."
But it also saw potential upsides for Japan, including faster growth in
wages and consumption, and the possibility that the weak yen could drive exports
past expectations.
The fund said Japan's currency is undervalued, though it did characterize
the yen as "market-determined."
US automakers have alleged Japan has manipulated its currency to boost
Japanese exports but both Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Federal Reserve
Board Chairman Ben Bernanke have publicly said they have seen no evidence of
manipulation.
"The yen remains below its long-term equilibrium value in real effective
terms," the report said.
The IMF added that the yen is at its weakest point in two decades after
falling by more than 5 pct against the dollar last year.
Elsewhere, the IMF said Japan's public debt ratio is "uncomfortably high,"
and continues to rise. It said Japan needs to continue developing capital
markets, raising bank profitability, and opening and deregulating the market.
[e-mail]
pik/cbd/wash

[haveagoodday] 05/8/2007 21:02

05/08/2007
Time : 08:08
Source : TFN Asia
Nippon Yusen Kabushi Japanese listed companies' Q1 pretax profits jump by 19.5 percent - report
TOKYO (Thomson Financial) - The combined pretax profits of Japan's listed
companies were 19.5 percent higher in the fiscal first quarter ended June than a
year before, the rise having been fueled by booming demand in emerging economies
and the weak yen, the Nikkei newspaper reported at the weekend.
The newspaper, in a report carried on its website, said The Nikkei Inc had
conducted a survey of 914 listed companies that had released their earnings for
the quarter. These account for about 60 percent of the publicly traded companies
that close their books in March, excluding financial institutions and those
listed on the markets for start-ups.
Of the 32 industries covered in the survey, 22 posted profit growth. Sectors
benefiting from the strong economies in emerging countries saw particularly
large gains.
Increased demand for shipping natural resources helped Nippon Yusen KK
almost double its pretax profit. Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd saw its profit soar by 80
percent.
Komatsu Ltd posted a 50 percent profit surge, owing to expansion of its
operations in emerging countries. Mitsui & Co's profit tripled on higher prices
for energy and natural resources, which were fueled by robust demand from
emerging economies.
The yen's depreciation continued to boost earnings in many industries. The
currency was traded at 123 yen to the US dollar at the end of June, a
significant weakening from 118 yen at the end of March.
The foreign exchange rate contributed to brisk results at car makers, with
Toyota Motor Corp's pretax profit growing by 30 percent. Auto makers' strong
earnings also benefited Nippon Steel Corp and other major steel makers.
Listed companies are forecast to post their highest-ever combined profits in
the fiscal year ending March 2008 for the fifth straight year. However, the
outlook for the U.S. economy and foreign exchange rates remain risk factors, the
Nikkei said.

[greenpastures] 01/8/2007 09:54

I am wondering whether this is the beginning of a world wide financial crash. So much of the world's economy seems to be based on westerners borrowing money to buy from China and other cheap manufacturers. I can't see how that continue indefinitely. And once it stops the whole pyramid could quickly crumble.

I hope I am wrong but that is what keeps me awake at night.

[hectorp] 01/8/2007 09:12

YEN rises , carry trade hurt... (this should be good for our Fund though tis down over 1%, but Dow is down 2%)
We will get a cheaper price yet...

[hectorp] 31/7/2007 07:53

NIKKI up, Dow up over 100 pts.

But we need the Nikkei to start to act on its own. It need not always be following the US, which is at a different part of the Cycle. at some point it has to rally onwards.

[tiraider] 30/7/2007 15:28

THE NET ASSET VALUES IN PENCE WITH DEBT VALUED AT PAR AS AT MARKET CLOSE ON 27TH JULY 2007 WERE AS FOLLOWS: JPMORGAN JAPANESE INVESTMENT TRUST PLC: 247.98

[hectorp] 30/7/2007 08:46

I may be wise then to see how the Japan markets react on Monday next.
H.

[ilancas] 29/7/2007 20:45

From the Telegraph this evening:

"An early prediction suggested that the ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Buddhist-backed New Komeito had won only 47 of the 121 seats being contested, well below the 64 needed to maintain their hold on the 242-seat House of Councillors.

The main opposition group, the Democratic Party of Japan (DJP), was forecast to have taken 59 seats.

If confirmed, those figures would be dire for the government. Mr Abe, who took over from the flamboyant Junichiro Koizumi only ten months ago, said he accepted responsibility for an "extremely disappointing" result."

Full article:

[tiraider] 29/7/2007 16:20

Nikkei sinks to three-month low
By David Turner in Tokyo

Published: July 27 2007 03:57 | Last updated: July 27 2007 10:28

Japan's Nikkei share index plunged to a three-month low on Friday as investors brushed aside generally strong earnings results, concentrating instead on the sharp slide overnight in US and European markets.

The Nikkei 225 plummeted 2.4 per cent to 17,283.81 while the broader Topix sank 2.2 per cent to 1,699.71. The overnight slide in global markets included a 3.2 per cent plunge in London's FTSE index, the most severe fall in four years.

Many of the sharpest falls were in the export sector, because of fears about the global economy.

The behaviour of the Japanese stock market was exemplified by Canon, which draws most of its earnings from abroad. Despite a 19 per cent rise in net profit to a record high for the six months to June, the company's shares plunged 5.5 per cent to Y6,510.

Toyota, the world's biggest carmaker and one of Japan's largest exporters, was down 1.6 per cent at Y7,260.

Shipping, one of the most export-focused sectors of all, dived 2.6 per cent. Mitsui OSK Lines, one of Japan's biggest shippers, dropped 2.7 per cent to Y1,782.

But domestic stocks also fell on fears the ruling Liberal Democratic-led coalition may lose control of the Upper House after Sunday's elections, resulting in political turmoil. The banking sector dropped 2.2 per cent, with Mitsubishi UFJ, the world's largest bank by assets, sinking 3 per cent to Y1,290,000.

Despite the day's losses, Koji Yamamoto, president of State Street Global Advisors Japan, said foreign institutional investors remained interested in Japan because of "long-term factors". These included improvement in corporate governance, government reforms, and the continuing economic recovery.

Shoji Hirakawa, equity strategist at UBS in Tokyo, blamed worries about the US subprime market, as well as election-related concerns, for the fall in Japanese stocks.

But he said if the coalition led by Liberal Democratic party lost its majority only narrowly, share prices were set to rise on expectations the LDP would shelve plans within the next few years to raise consumption tax. This would boost household spending, increasing corporate earnings.

Weak consumption has helped keep Japan mired in deflation, albeit very mild. Official figures on Friday showed that core consumer prices fell 0.1 per cent on the year in July, as expected. Financial markets think the Bank of Japan is likely to raise interest rates next month regardless of Japan's failure to shake off deflation.

But if the ruling coalition lost by a wide margin, share prices would fall on fears "there might be a little bit of a problem passing bills".

Many analysts think the coalition will lose its majority, though they disagree on the likely extent of the rout.

[watwungyi] 29/7/2007 15:40

i think recent panic in the us and european market means investors need to be a bit more imaginative, sophisticated and perhaps more co-operative. and in this climate my intuition is to look for out-of-favour stocks, sectors or regions. one justification is these out-of-favour stocks usually have sane valuation, free from liquidity or takeover premium. in this regard, japan fits well and also if you are a sort of get-rich-slowly, then maybe you might want to look at merill lynch new energy technology. i still believe commodities have a lot to run, recent hikes in commodity prices made me nervous to make a commitment in miners and commodity stocks, except by buying a few shares monthly. but another sector which has been out of favour and drew my attention recently is biotech sectors. they have been so popular in the early eighties but then they were dismissed almost altogether after technology bust. biotech firms have a very good future not only because new therapies will invariably come from genetic studies but also in non-medicinal agricultural sector, new methods for highly-productive agricultural products(the demand of which will keep rising with rising population and rising energy needs) will originate from genetic studies. And these bio-tech firms are also intersting to me. I found one it (finsbury emerging bio-tech trust) which is run by experts in micro-biology with cfas. any ideas?

[hectorp] 29/7/2007 13:23

hagd: Overall I agree with your comments and observations re Japan in the above post.
Maybe short term ragarding the chart above for this Find, the following is my view.
I like 'high volume' - be it buys or sells, there have been some million vol days recently quite strong. I dont see the MAcD rising much, but it is widdling along a bit. But it IS diverging upwards compared with the RSI.
One of my favourites is the RSI. In this case there are two strong RSI lows in 2006 ( as low as 10!) this year only as low as 20. At the moment the RSI is still slipping down and is 35.
- I would tend to buy ( If I do) on a turn up of the RSI, which means I prefer to wait for two rising share days in succession before coming in.
OK one misses the 'bottom' but avoids possible further drift ( to 20! or 10!)
I'd really intend to hold for 1 -3 years if at all possible.
- Looking back it is odd that the Market was so high in early 2006, but all helps to show where is might be in a year. My tareg would be the 270p resistnce of recent times however.
Even that is a 50P rise! which is not easy to find now for example even in a good FTSE Mid cap growth stock.
regds
H.

[haveagoodday] 29/7/2007 10:52

On the chart, note that the MACD has been steadily rising as the price has been falling. That's positive divergence. There is also a large falling wedge pattern. Recently, it has seen above average volume. The conclusion of that pattern is normally a sharp upward chart break.
All the ingredients are there.......

[haveagoodday] 29/7/2007 10:43

Hello Hectorp,

well done for your migration from NRK!

It's cheap principally because of the devaluation of the Yen, and has run to a discount. After the last few days though, as you know, that devaluation has abruptly stopped and reversed.

Credit crunch in Japan? Quite the reverse, Japan has been the world's banker and the money is now flowing back as the US and UK have burnt themselves out. China is now the main trading partner, and growing fast.

The chart is finding support around this 220 area. When it rises that discount quickly disappears and goes to a premium. (when it falls, the opposite happens).

Japan officially has 0% inflation. That is disputable though, as The Yen has devalued, gold has risen, the oil price in USD has risen. 0% - are the figures correct? Regardless, at sometime in the foreseeable future interest rates will rise proportionally by 50%, from 0.5 tp 0.75%, that will no doubt accelerate the Yen's rise.

Japan is finally recovering from a 17 year depression and the Treasury is reluctant to stop the sharp growth. GDP is 5.0% and rising.

That's the difference between Japan and western economies (US and UK anyway). They are faltering and going into recession, Japan is coming out the other side.

It's one big market as you say, but the economies are opposite ends of the financial spectrum. The turmoil in the markets is due to investors swapping sides as they realise what's happening.

As far as I'm concerned it's better to be on the side that's going up. When it does, most Japanese funds will follow. Why this one? A large fund £0.5bn, small spread and well managed.

Have a look at recent announcements. It has been purchasing a lot of shares for cancellation. That says a lot about where the managers think it's going.

rgds

ps if you do buy, buy in the afternoon. In the mornings the spread is wide and narrows as the day progresses, so with no change you get in a couple of pence cheaper.

[hectorp] 29/7/2007 09:54

Buy JAPAN Funds. ??
watty could be very right.
The rising yen, but will the World not suffer as a whole when the US and Europe suffer eg from the credit crunch?
Would Japanese companies be fairly immune? its one big market.
Still i can see the advantages. But why is thus TRust at nearly 30p discount to NAV? why has it fallen from January high?
If it is so desireable what is the chart telling us about the outlook?
It SEEMS cheap.
WHat is the P/E of Japan companies, is it lower than the UK average of 13-14%?
If someone can give some replies, I may consider buying these Funds.
regds
H.

[haveagoodday] 29/7/2007 07:42

Morning Watty, hope business is going well for you in China.
rgds

[watwungyi] 29/7/2007 05:17

Hello everyone,

i feel sorry for equities bulls in the west. but those who are investing jap equities will have a lot to smile about soon. Jap companies have been accumulating cash for a few years now. But as yen has been suppressed, the companies can afford to good spending on capital expenditure which will no doubt put Jap businesses very good advantages in the long run. Secondly, the strengthening of yen, which i strongly believe is an eventuality, will suddenly strengthen their balance sheet and hence their values. i don't have an expertise to look at individual jap stocks, so i just buy its which are trading at good discounts as well as a tracker fund from hsbc.
while jap market looks increasingly interesting, the opposite is happening here in uk, europe and us. in the past few years, very few business pay attention on capital expenditure. instead, increasing dividends on borrowing money has become a norm here. home depot borrowed money for share buyback. tate and lyle, i used to hold, return it sales proceed to investors rather than knocking off debt or other expenditure. in one word, businesses here became too short-sighted in the past few years which alone, let alone credit problems, is a good reason to take extra caution before buying equities here.
i hardly know anything about technical analysis, but some of them who knows have been talking positive things about this one. fingers crossed.

gl,

from mild western china

[haveagoodday] 28/7/2007 14:56

Yen up 10 on the week (240 now) v GBP as carry trade unwinds



What the Yen does against the £, the dow follows

[tiraider] 26/7/2007 13:11

Carry trade unwinding?

Yen strongly up today at 244

[hosede] 25/7/2007 14:17

Watwungyi
Yes I should have but even they have gone nowhere eg SF33 which is the one I watch. I hoped/expected JMF and BGFD to do better than a tracker not worse! Big mistake

[tiraider] 24/7/2007 11:19

THE NET ASSET VALUES IN PENCE WITH DEBT VALUED AT PAR AS AT MARKET CLOSE ON 23rd JULY 2007 WERE AS FOLLOWS:

JPMORGAN JAPANESE INVESTMENT TRUST PLC: 250.81