Jpmorgan Japanese Invest... Share Discussion Threads

[nerja] 16/2/2007 11:08

Yen appreciation appears to be accelerating, nav in sterling getting currency boost, it may at last be the time to jump into Japan, while it plays catch up.

[haveagoodday] 16/2/2007 08:19

(Close): Japanese share prices closed slightly lower ahead of next week's interest rate decision by the central bank.
Shares of Sapporo Holdings were swamped with buy orders after hedge fund Steel Partners said it was considering a tender offer for the beer maker.

The Tokyo Stock Exchange's Nikkei index of leading shares shed 21.58 points or 0.12% to 17,875.65.

It comes a day after the market notched its best finish since 8 May, 2000.

[haveagoodday] 15/2/2007 09:42

AD...point taken, but with an appreciating Yen, depreciating $, could be interesting times ahead.

Those Japanese GDP figs are very strong. Looks like Japan is finally moving into the top gear of growth.

[a0148009] 15/2/2007 09:32

have

Thanks interesting posts. I dont see a huge unwinding of the carry trade because the disparity in interest rates between Japan versus USA/UK is so large it would take an increase of 2% or more to make any real impact on large short positions of Yen, however there will be some cautious players out there who will be less aggressive.

AO

[haveagoodday] 15/2/2007 09:09

Ready for the era of cheap debt to end? the free cash machine is about to end...

Japan's Economy Grows 4.8%, Fastest in Almost 3 Years (Update7)

By Lily Nonomiya

Feb. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's economy grew at the fastest pace in almost three years as consumer spending rebounded and business investment jumped. The yen rose on speculation the central bank may raise interest rates.

Gross domestic product in the world's second-largest economy expanded at an annual 4.8 percent pace in the three months ended Dec. 31, the Cabinet Office said in Tokyo today, exceeding the 3.8 percent median estimate of 38 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Third-quarter growth was revised to 0.3 percent from 0.8 percent.

The chance the central bank will raise rates next week rose to 54 percent, from 40 percent late yesterday, according to calculations by Credit Suisse Group based on interest-payment trading. Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui cited weak consumer spending and slow inflation as reasons his policy board kept borrowing costs at 0.25 percent at its last two meetings.

``The report increases the possibility the central bank will raise rates,'' said Satoshi Kon, who helps manage the equivalent of $19 billion in Tokyo at Pension Fund Association. ``Consumption was stronger than many of us anticipated.''

The yen rose to 120.04 per dollar at 3:38 p.m. in Tokyo from 120.72 before the report was published. Yields on the benchmark 10-year bond rose 1.5 basis points to 1.74 percent. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average climbed 0.8 percent as shares of Takashimaya Co., the nation's largest department store, jumped 10 percent.

[haveagoodday] 15/2/2007 08:55

(Close): Economic data helped Japanese share prices rise again on Thursday, to reach its highest level in almost seven years for a second consecutive day.
Japan's economy grew at an annual rate of 4.8% in the quarter, the government said - buoyed by consumer spending.

The Nikkei-225 index was up 0.81% to 17,897.23 by the end of trading - its highest finish since May 8 2000. The TOPIX index gained 0.65% to 1,776.71.

Shares of consumer lender Orient fell nearly 20% after it warned of losses.

Tighter lending laws would hit the bottom line, Orient said.

[a0148009] 15/2/2007 08:29

Chart looks good.Discount closed to 5%. Looking for more appreciation of Yen with todays better than expected GDP figures and possibility of higher interest rates, some unwinding of the carry trade and further new N225 highs.

AO

[haveagoodday] 14/2/2007 19:20

Hi AD,

this thread has the News link, the other has the N225 chart. Pity they're not on both. I've just used whatever was top of the list when I search.

Weak res at 270 that I'm sure will be tested shortly, after that, we'll be cruising!

This type of investment is long term, although easily tradeable with that tight spread. The N225 has a lot of lost ground to make up. I make next major res 24000. The only question is when? Now clear of the 17500 res, fairly quickly (by the end of the year?).

[haveagoodday] 14/2/2007 09:12

Good luck GP.

I bought back into JFJ recently. With an undervalues N225, making new highs, the yen is overbought and a lot of positions to unwind in carry trades, I'm expecting to see this benefit from 2 rising markets. So far, so good anyway but the moves are both still in their infancy, so a lot to play for I think

[greenpastures] 14/2/2007 08:52

Thanks haveagoodday. I bought a tracker to add to my JFJ in the new year to increase exposure to Japan.

[haveagoodday] 14/2/2007 08:46

Close): Japanese share prices gained 0.74% on Wednesday to end trading at close to a seven-year high.
The Nikkei-225 index finished 106.29 points ahead at 17,727.74. The broader TOPIX index gained 0.56% to 1,765.73.

Tyre maker Bridgestone was among the big winners, gaining 4.2% after saying it was set to smash its 2006 operating profit forecast for 2006 by 15%.

Higher sales, more profitable products and the weaker yen had all played a part, Bridgestone said.

[haveagoodday] 13/2/2007 09:01

(Close): The Nikkei closed at its highest level since 2000 on Tuesday, led by gains to property stocks after they reported strong results last week.
Building company Mitsui Fudosan was one of the highest risers.

Banking stocks such as Mitsubishi Financial also rose ahead of expected upbeat Japanese economic growth data due out on Thursday.

The Nikkei ended up 117 points to 17,621. Steel, shipping and brokerage firms also enjoyed rises.

[tiraider] 02/2/2007 15:17

Yes, that depreciation and a bit more is in the price now hence discount to NAV.

It looks as if BoJ will increase rates in the not too distant future and that could turn the Yen around.

Chart has broken upwards out of that rectangle so I'm expecting it to test initially the res at 264 sooner rather than later

[a0148009] 02/2/2007 13:23

Shame about the depreciation of the Yen against £ almost 15% over the last 12 months very much up to the Bank of Japan where it goes from here but would expect the Yen to firm up as we move to the 31st March which is year end for most Japanese companies and they usuallly repatriate funds and window dress.
This fund way back in the past have hedged the currency on occasions but do not do so anymore which I think is the correct way to manage now.

[haveagoodday] 02/2/2007 08:24

(Close): The main Japanese share index ended up on Friday, boosted by the weaker yen against the dollar and optimism about US economic growth.
Gains were led by technology stocks and key exporters such as Samsung.

Property firms also enjoyed rises, on renewed optimism of growth in the Japanese housing sector.

The Nikkei 225 ended up 28 points to 17,547, its best close in 10 months, after earlier rising to its highest inter-day level since July 2000.

[tiraider] 25/1/2007 12:58

NAV = 276.83, highest for some time.

[tiraider] 24/1/2007 11:26

(Close): Leading Japanese shares were higher by close of trade Wednesday, after reaching their highest level in over six years, buoyed by exporters.
The benchmark Nikkei index ended 98.83 points up at 17,507.4 while the broader Topix was 0.45 points up at 1,738.61.

Exporting firm such as Toyota, which rose 1.8%, were boosted by strong earnings forecasts.

Electric power firm Kansai Electric rose 3.1% after being upgraded and Tokyo Electric Power added 2.3%.

Fallers included Advantest along with shares in other chip industry firms after Credit Suisse downgraded certain ratings in the industry.

[tiraider] 23/1/2007 13:47

N225 just off the nine month high today (from yesterday). A small push will take it to a 15 year high.

JFJ nav now 272. Getting ready to go higher......252 the res, once clear, expect some sharp rises.

[tiraider] 17/1/2007 12:12

(Close): Property companies led the market higher after reports that the Bank of Japan may keep interest rates on hold this week.
The Nikkei 225 index ended the day up 58.89 points at 17,261.35.

The news lifted real estate shares, with Mitsubishi Estate rising 2.9% and Sumitomo Realty & Development up 2.1%.

The reports of a rate freeze hit bank shares, with Mizuho Financial Group down 0.2% and Sumitomo Trust & Banking Co falling 1.1%.

[knowing] 15/1/2007 23:06

Tokyo shares outlook - Firm amid improved sentiment


TOKYO (XFN-ASIA) - Share prices are expected to open higher as investor
sentiment continues to improve, with a weak yen and receding concerns over the
strength of the US economy reviving expectations for a better-than-expected
profit performance by Japanese exporters, dealers said.
Worries are also receding over the health of the corporate sector in Japan
in the wake of the release yesterday of a slightly stronger-than-expected
machinery orders, they said.
But activity here may be slow due to the absence of US players, with US
markets closed on Monday for Martin Luther King Day, dealers said.
In addition, the top side may be capped on caution ahead of the start
tomorrow of a two-day policy board meeting, where the nine policy board members
of the Bank of Japan are widely expected to vote to raise overnight call rate
for the first time since July last year.
On the Tokyo bourse yesterday, the blue-chip Nikkei 225 Stock Average closed
up 152.91 points or 0.9 pct at 17,209.92, while the broader TOPIX index of all
first-section issues was 19.31 points or 1.15 pct higher at 1,704.58.
Ahead in Japan, the Bank of Japan will release 10 minutes before the opening
bell corporate goods prices for December, while the Ministry of Economy, Trade
and Industry will announce in the afternoon revised industrial production data
for November.
Shin-Etsu Chemical announces earnings for April-December.
Stocks to watch include Sanyo Electric after the struggling consumer
electronics maker announced it and Haier Group of China signed today a formal
agreement to establish a joint venture and start collaboration in the
refrigerator business, in line with a tentative agreement on Oct 27.
Credit Saison Co Ltd may draw attention on a report that the credit card
firm will begin selling no-load investment trusts to its 24 mln cardholders in
March through a tie-up with US mutual fund firm Vanguard Group Inc, targetting a
net asset balance of 200 bln yen by 2010.
Marubeni Corp may advance on a report that the trading house has bought 100
pct of Integrated Resources Holdings Inc of the US for some 8 bln yen.
Integrated Resources Holdings Inc owns AT Clayton & Co, a distributor of
lightweight coated paper used in magazines and other printed materials.
Komatsu Ltd may be active on a report that it has won mining equipment
orders totaling some 32 bln yen from a Mexican gold miner and a Chinese coal
producer.

[tiraider] 13/1/2007 13:14

Unfortunately, JPM with the best stockpicks in the Japan, are fighting a rising GBP / falling Yen

[grippa] 13/1/2007 11:27

Japanese stock markets have a huge way to catch up with the rest of Asia...I am surprised we are at such a discount to NAV and that more people are'nt optimistic about prospects in Japan! Especially as last year was so bad. Lets hope JPM can pick the right stocks from now on!

[knowing] 02/1/2007 23:33

Yep lot's of potential upside if you happen to pick the right fund in Japan. I have some of these and FJV along with a few others. Nikkei has to play catch up.

[pinhead3] 29/12/2006 10:29

Over the last 12mnths the NAV has fallen from £3.38 to £2.69 (-20%) over the same peroid the Nikkei has risen approx 1,000 points or 6%. To say this is dissapointing is an understatement!
JFJ has wiped out all the other gains I made on my SIPP during last 6 months of 2006 despite only being 15% of the total. I'm giving the fund managers another 6-12mnths to prove themselves or I'll be switching.