Jpmorgan Emerging Europe... Share Discussion Threads

[redhorse2020] 21/10/2024 10:30

Thanks for the update Log. So in simple terms for my benefit does this mean we will have no one to manage the Russian assets but will at least retain the Russian assets until they decide to change the current law..?

[loganair] 20/10/2024 14:18

Further to the Board's RNS announcements on 6th September and 12th September 2024 regarding the Russian court order update, the Board announces that today 18th October 2024 the Company's Manager informed the Board of the following (in italics):

"The Russian court has granted VTB's claim for $439m in full against eight (including JEMA) of the nine J.P. Morgan legal entities named as defendants in the original claim. The J.P. Morgan defendants have 30 days from the date of publication of the ruling to appeal. The appeal process would take approximately two months. The judgment cannot be enforced against J.P Morgan's assets until the appeal is determined.

Furthermore, as previously detailed, under current Russian law, JEMA's assets (both securities and cash) held in S accounts in the name of J.P. Morgan Bank International (J.P. Morgan's Russian subsidiary) cannot be used to satisfy the judgment.

[masergt1] 19/10/2024 19:07

logliar. BRICS v. ROW? How about this then?



"Russian President Vladimir Putin has conceded the failure of Russia's ambitious project aimed at challenging the dominance of the dollar as the primary global currency. The grand promises to establish the so-called "BRICS single currency" have fizzled out, and the idea is no longer on the table. Back in 2022, Russia announced plans to create a unified BRICS currency, with pledges to back it with land and rare earth metals to make it more attractive than the dollar.

However, it appears that these assurances were merely propaganda with little chance of realization. This notion was underscored by Putin on Friday, October 18, during a meeting with journalists from BRICS member countries. According to the Russian agency Interfax, the Russian leader admitted that the nations within this bloc are not prepared to create a unified currency.

Putin attributed this unpreparedness to "differences in the structure and levels of economies." He stated that the issue of a single currency "has not matured," and hence, it is not under consideration at this time. Now, Putin is urging BRICS member countries to "act cautiously and without haste," drawing parallels to challenges purportedly faced during the creation of the Euro in the EU. Instead of a unified currency, the Kremlin is proposing trade in national currencies, leveraging "electronic tools," and creating a "SWIFT analogue."

Previously, the pursuit of a "BRICS single currency" was dismissed by South Africa and India. Officials in South Africa's finance ministry pointed out the complexity of such an economy and expressed skepticism about the viability of Russia's proposal. Similarly, India’s finance ministry conveyed its intent to strengthen the national currency."

Told you so, but you wouldn't listen. Ha ha ha...

[masergt1] 17/10/2024 17:26

Swedish experts: Russia’s economic recovery claims don't add up
October 17, 2024, 15:31

"According to Rosstat (Russia’s state statistics agency), Russia’s GDP shrank by just 1.2% in 2022—six times less than the government had predicted at the start of the war—before supposedly rebounding by 3.6% in 2023 and 4.6% in the first half of 2024. However, NIER’s analysis suggests that Russian authorities are understating a key economic parameter: inflation.

Rosstat reports that the consumer price index rose by 11.9% in 2022, 7.4% in 2023, and 5.8% between January and September 2024, amounting to a total increase of 27.1% since the start of the war.

However, alternative inflation metrics indicate much higher figures, according to NIER. Romir, an analytics company that tracks real consumption patterns in Russia, found that the price index for everyday goods (FMCG) surged by 33.4% in the first year of the war, 23.2% in the second year, and another 13.7% in the first nine months of 2024. In total, inflation has soared by 87%.

Read also: Russian central bank raises rates to curb wartime inflation
When Russia’s GDP growth is adjusted using Romir’s inflation data instead of official figures, NIER estimates that the reported 3.6% growth in 2023 actually translates to an 8.7% contraction.

The economists also applied three other alternative models to evaluate Russia’s economy, and none showed growth. GDP, calculated based on the dollar price of oil, fell by 1.9% last year; based on the ruble price of oil, it dropped by 8.2%; and a model correlating with US GDP indicated a 10.9% decline."

(cont...)

[loganair] 15/10/2024 16:51

When the conflict in the Ukraine is finally over, if JEMA are able to repatriate the monies in their 'S' account, one of the biggest variables will be the RUB/GBP exchange rate.

At 120 rub to the GBP JEMAs 'S' account is currently worth circa 50p per share, while at 100 rub to the GBP would be worth 60p per share and if happens to be 80 rub to the GBP = 75p per share etc.

The second variable will be will JEMA be able to repatriate monies from their 'S' account and from any sale of any stocks at full value or 50% of their full value?

[gbjbaanb] 15/10/2024 16:41

250p would be a roughly 4 bagger for me. I like this. This is supposed to be a financial board after all, and not some child's political tantrum board.

[loganair] 15/10/2024 08:44

At 50% of the current MOEX value and at the current exchange rate JEMAs Russian stocks are worth circa 200p per share + (50p per share cash in their 'S' account)

[loganair] 15/10/2024 08:40

Red - can double the £1.1mln to get the full MOEX value, then double again due to the fall in the value of the Rouble = circa £4.4mln. Yandex highest value was about 18 months before February 2022, about 3 times higher share price - £4.4mln x 3 = £13.2mln.


Yandex was by far JEMA's worse performing Russian stock coming into the conflict, had fallen by 65% from 18 months prior to February 2022. Some of JEMAs Russian holdings are only down 15% from their high.

Also, when the conflict finally ends and some of the sanctions are lifted, it seems to me reasonable to say that the Rouble will rise in value. I'm looking for it to go from 120 rub to the GBP to around 100. At this time, maybe able to sell for the full MOEX value.

JEMA may also wish to keep most their Russian stocks as they are high dividend yielding .

Therefore all is not as bad as it may first seem.

[redhorse2020] 14/10/2024 21:26

Thanks Log - any idea what these shares were worth before the invasion of Ukraine? Looking at the 2021 year end report the Yandex shares appear to have been valued at almost £13m but I'm not sure if there were any changes to the holding since then. Doesn't appear to bode well for the rest of the Russian holdings even if we are able to realise the value one day....

[loganair] 14/10/2024 18:44

JEMA has managed to sell it's Yandex NV shares for 50% of their MOEX value for a total consideration of circa 2.8p per JEMA share.

Note - Yandex NV was never a dividend paying stock.


I wonder what JEMA are going to do with the circa £1.1mln they recieved from the sale of these shares?

[loganair] 14/10/2024 18:41

10th October 2024 - "The Board announce that the unaudited net asset value of 51.76 pence released earlier today (an increase of 5.7% to the unaudited net asset value for the previous day) includes the impact of a sale of a previously sanctioned security, Nebius (formerly Yandex)."

[loganair] 14/10/2024 18:34

JEMA holds 169,819 Nebius Group (Yandex NV stock) suspended on the Nasdaq since March 2022:


02nd October 2024 - Nebius Group "We are continuing discussions with the Nasdaq Listing Hearing Panel and Listing Qualifications Staff regarding the optimal timing to reinstate trading in our shares, in order to ensure the smooth resumption of trading and the establishment of an orderly market in our shares."

[masergt1] 13/10/2024 17:25

Your head's twisted logliar. Brain frazzled.

Russian demands, like the FSB having open access across the EU, are impossible to meet. Putin always wants everything his own way. And you know what, logiar? Even if he got everything he wanted he'd still break the treaty!

[masergt1] 13/10/2024 17:15

Russian animals at it again. C'mon logliar - condemn it.

[1917again] 12/10/2024 17:24

Russian channel Fighter bomber reporting a SU-34 meet a F-16 AA missile

As expected the SU-34 is no more

[loganair] 12/10/2024 16:34

There must be security for all or no one is secure.

For the past 25 years all Russia has been asking for is a new security frame work for Europe which includes Russia. Each time at every turn the UK and United States has turned Russia down, therefore I lay the responsibility for what is going on in the Ukraine at the moment squarely at the feet of both the UK and United States.

[redhorse2020] 08/10/2024 18:35

Conclusive proof then by the sounds of it Log ? How could we have ever doubted Putin? No doubt the entire invasion was fabricated by the west ?