Jpmorgan China Growth & ... Share Discussion Threads

[loganair] 01/9/2022 10:33

MoneyWeek - In his latest, War and Industrial Policy, Pozsar, argues that there were three forces that shaped the western economy before Covid - cheap immigrant labour, cheap Chinese goods and cheap gas - which is no longer the case.


“The “cartoon”; version goes like this: China got very rich making cheap stuff, and then wanted to build 5G networks globally and make cutting-edge chips with cutting-edge lithography machines, but the US said “no way”. As a result, Chimerica is going through a messy divorce. The two sides don’t talk anymore.”

Meanwhile, “Russia got very rich selling cheap gas to Europe, and Germany got very rich selling expensive stuff produced with cheap gas.” Those two sides aren’t talking any more either.

And now, in the divorce, it seems Russia and China are “getting it on”. Meanwhile, out west, QE and zero interest rate policies are no longer possible in a world without cheap Chinese and Russian exports.

[loganair] 15/8/2022 16:15

The Chinese people and companies are not wishing to borrow at the moment and therefore the Chinese government is trying to entice borrowing.

Considering the current financial system is debt based, unless debt keeps increasing, in other words if debt remains static or falls, the whole system collapses.

[petewy] 15/8/2022 15:46

Is this good or bad news/// Conclusion?

[loganair] 15/8/2022 08:19

China unexpectedly cuts 2 key rates, withdraws cash from banking system:


China's central bank unexpectedly cut a key interest rate for the second time this year and withdrew some cash from the banking system on Monday, to try to revive credit demand to support the COVID-hit economy.

Economists and analysts said they believe Chinese authorities are keen to support the sluggish economy by allowing a widening policy divergence with other major economies that are raising interest rates aggressively.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) said it was lowering the rate on 400 billion yuan ($59.33 billion) of one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) loans to some financial institutions by 10 basis points (bps) to 2.75%, from 2.85%.

"The rate cut surprises us," said Xing Zhaopeng, senior China strategist at ANZ.

"It should be a response to the weak credit data on Friday. The government remains cautious about growth and will not let go."

New bank lending in China tumbled more than expected in July while broad credit growth slowed, as fresh COVID flare-ups, worries about jobs and a deepening property crisis made companies and consumers wary of taking on more debt.

The PBOC attributed its move to "keep banking system liquidity reasonably ample". And with 600 billion yuan worth of MLF loans maturing, the operation resulted a net 200 billion yuan of fund withdrawal.

Market participants have largely priced in the partial rollover as the banking system was already flush with cash, with interbank money rates hovering at two-year lows and persistently below policy rates.

"Now with hindsight, today's 10-bp cut may be seen as 'front-loading' before the policy room gets narrower going forward as the PBOC sees structural inflation pressure," said Frances Cheung, rates strategist at OCBC Bank.

The PBOC reiterated it would step up the implementation of its prudent monetary policy and keep liquidity reasonably ample, while closely monitoring domestic and external inflation changes, it said in its second-quarter monetary policy report.

"Despite the warning of inflation risk and flush liquidity condition, the dominating downside risks under the COVID spread and property-sector rout prompted the PBOC to cut rates to stimulate demand," said Ken Cheung, chief Asian FX strategist at Mizuho Bank.

China's 10-year treasury futures jumped more than 0.7% in early trade following the rate decision, while yields on sovereign bond for the same tenor fell about 5 basis points.

The central bank also injected 2 billion yuan through seven-day reverse repos while cutting the borrowing cost by the same margin of 10 bps to 2.0% from 2.1%, according to an online statement.

[loganair] 03/8/2022 08:18

China now considers U.S. Treasuries as a 'Risk Asset.'

It seems to me reasonable to say that China will not do too much at the moment to antagonise the situation with the West until it has let a couple of hundred billion USD mature and roll off its reserves, bringing them down to $800 billion or slightly less.

[loganair] 20/7/2022 10:15

Over the past couple of years, I've read several reports coming out of China that the Chinese Central Bank would like to reduce their portfolio of United States government debt to $800 billion.

As a percentage of Chinese GDP the amount of U.S. government debt they hold has fallen from circa 20% in 2010 to 6.7% today and will continue to fall.

[loganair] 19/7/2022 13:47

China’s portfolio of United States government debt in May dropped to $980.8 billion, according to Treasury Department data released Monday. That’s a decline of nearly $100 billion, or 9%, from the year-earlier month and is likely to continue.

It marked the first time since May 2010 that China’s holdings fell below the $1 trillion mark in what analysts call a move to prevent potential adverse impact from escalating China-US tensions.

The decline in China’s share has been attributed to Beijing working to diversify its foreign debt portfolio.

Xi Junyang, a professor at the Shanghai University of Finance and Economics said "There are political risks that the US dollar may be weaponized if the Biden administration continues the confrontational approach of his predecessor Donald Trump amid the strained China-US relationship. Given the volatilities on the market, excessive holding of US debt may pose financial security risks."

[loganair] 04/7/2022 08:14

Could the USA put sanctions on China? Yes it could, however will most probably damage the U.S. more.

One example, China buys 1/3rd of all Boeing aircraft being made, so any sanctions put on them China could easily immediately cancel their Boeing orders.

Petro China is now looking to dispose of their assets in the USA, Canada, UK and Australia and China Offshore Oil Corp are also looking to do the same.

[loganair] 28/6/2022 08:36

Often when any good investment significantly falls, the big boys say is un-investible as they want to make sure they are the only ones investing on the ground floor and the private retail investor comes back in once the share price has risen.

[velvetide] 28/6/2022 08:30

Kept hearing shouts that China was un-investable when this was c£3 just several weeks ago

[dennisbergkamp] 17/6/2022 07:44

How do you guys feel it’s currently been affected by lockdowns in China?

D

[petewy] 24/5/2022 16:05

Half year Results? Any views?

[melloteam] 22/5/2022 17:06

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For more information, please visit the event webpage:

[luckymouse] 20/5/2022 14:36

base b/o ?

[loganair] 22/3/2022 09:36

The US is imposing visa restrictions on Chinese officials in order to punish Beijing for alleged repression, intimidation and harassment of human rights activists and dissidents, both in China and around the world, the State Department said on Monday. As examples, Secretary of State Antony Blinken cited “genocide̶1; of Uighurs and repression in Tibet and Hong Kong.

The announcement comes after Friday’s call between US President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, in which Washington threatened China with “consequences” unless it disavowed Russia and joined the US-led embargo against Moscow.

China is a sovereign country opposed to unilateral sanctions and reserves the right to defend its interests accordingly, the government in Beijing said in response. Xi told Biden that China stands for peace and against war and backed a diplomatic solution of the Ukraine conflict.

[thruxie] 16/3/2022 22:28

BABA and TCEHY up 36% and 33% today. See post 126 BOOM!

[loganair] 15/3/2022 17:11

Saudi Arabia is currently in talks with China to price some of the oil sales in Yuan instead of Dollars. This comes on the back of the sanctions on Russia after the Ukrainian invasion, and the global realization that diversification away from the dollar might be wise. As more and more small events like this happen, the global trend towards de-dollarization gets stronger - another straw on the camels back of de-dollarization.

[loganair] 15/3/2022 16:04

I hear more and more financial advisers saying a recession is near, when it hits I can see all markets falling, some far more than others, however all markets will go down from where they are today.

I ask myself when the recession finally hits, could we see JCGI fall to 200p - 72% down from its 52 Week high and 77% from its February 2021 all time high? my answer is yes.

[loganair] 15/3/2022 08:44

Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong had their worst day since the global financial crisis, as concerns over Beijing's close relationship with Russia and renewed regulatory risks sparked panic selling.

Tencent Holdings is reportedly facing a possible record fine for violations of anti money-laundering rules, which pushed the stock down nearly 10% on Monday. There's also a risk of Chinese firms delisting from the U.S., as the Securities and Exchange Commission identified some names as part of a crackdown on foreign firms that refuse to open their books to U.S. regulators.

"If the U.S. decides to impose sanctions on China in total or on individual Chinese companies doing business with Russia, that would be a concern," said Mark Mobius, who set up Mobius Capital Partners after more than three decades at Franklin Templeton Investments. "The whole story is still up in the air in this case."

On Friday, the Golden Dragon Index, which tracks American depository receipts of Chinese firms, slumped 10% for a second consecutive day -- something that's never happened before in its 22-year history. It slumped 18% last week, its steepest decline since at least 2001. China's benchmark CSI 300 Index closed 3.1% lower on Monday. The onshore yuan also fell to its weakest in a month as sentiment toward Chinese assets turned sour.

"We don't see a major catalyst in the near term," to help China stocks, though earnings results may create some share price volatility, said Marvin Chen, a strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence. "For a material re-rating of China tech, we may need to see a shift in regulatory tone, and we didn't get that from the recently concluded NPC meeting."

Even amid the rout, mainland traders have continued to snap up Hong Kong stocks, though that's proving insufficient to buttress share prices. They have been net buying Hong Kong equities via the stock connect in every session since Feb. 22, loading up $1 billion on Monday, the most since January.

"It's true that the valuation is cheap but if you are desperately closing your positions, valuations don't matter," said Yasutada Suzuki, head of emerging market investments at Sumitomo Mitsui Bank.

[loganair] 14/3/2022 19:28

BBC - China will face consequences if it helps Russia evade sanctions in its invasion of Ukraine, the US says.

[loganair] 14/3/2022 16:20

290p was JCGI March 2020 covid low which would be 60% below the trusts 52 week high and 66% below its February 2020 all time high.

[loganair] 14/3/2022 16:14

Traders worry that Beijing's potential overtures toward Putin could bring global backlash against Chinese firms, even sanctions.