I've been hearing for every 1 ton of gold China officially buys, they buy a further unreported 10 tons OTC. |
Beyond the Charts - 8/2/25:
The China BULL Market May Have Only Just Begun - Louis-Vincent Gave |
Interesting watch:
Wealthion - 28/1/25
China Has ‘Leapfrogged’ the West | Louis Vincent Gave
Beyond the headlines on DeepSeek AI, China is transforming the global economic order. The Asian superpower is outpacing the West in key industries like EVs, solar panels, and nuclear power while securing a record-breaking and growing $1 trillion trade surplus. In this must-watch interview, Louis-Vincent Gave joins James Connor to explain how China’s strategic and long-term planning, emerging market dominance, and infrastructure investments are reshaping markets—and what this means for the West’s future. |
So far, China seems to be the only country not backing down from U.S. tariffs and has retaliated by putting tariffs on U.S. imports into the country. |
China now holds just $3bln more U.S. Treasuries than the U.K.
It can now only be a very short matter of time until the U.K. over takes China to become to the second largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasuries. |
I was surprised to hear that less than 50% of world trade is now done via the Swift system and therefore in reality less then 50% of world trade is now conducted in the USD.
It seems to me reasonable to say that there is a high likelihood there will NOT be a BRICs currency with in the next 10 years, maybe never as the Chinese are intelligent enough to know their economy will for example not marry-up with the South African economy and will not be making the same mistake as the Europeans have with the Euro. |
China now holds just $7bln more U.S. Treasuries than the U.K. while this time last year they held $174bln more.
If one went back just 6 years the difference was around $700bln. |
The property market in China = 2.5% of their yearly increase in GDP.
Before the property market implosion Chinese GDP was increasing at 7.0% to 7.5%, therefore since the implosion their GDP has naturally fallen to 4.5% to 5.0% and there is nothing that China can really do about this as the property market is not coming back any time soon. |
Solid backing for a reserve currency when it comes.
The NAV has jumped up nicely which is handy as the 4% dividend is calculated next week. |
I understand that China has been hoovering up as much gold and silver concentrate as they can get their hands on directly from the mines.
Only offical purchases of Fine Silver or 99.5% plus pure gold by a reserve bank is supposed to be reported to the IMF.
Therefore these concentrates and any gold or silver bought by PLA bank or other government owned banks do not and are not reported. I understand over the past few years China has been buying 1,000 tons of gold per year this way, not including their offically bought gold by their central bank.
Since the start of the conflict in Ukraine Russia is said to have bought 1,000 tones of gold while this year Saudia Arabia behind the scenes has bought 120 tons of gold.
While in the first 6 months of 2024 India has bought 4,000 tones of silver, which is 7 times more then they did during the first 6 months of 2023. |
Chinese stocks on track for best week since 2008 after stimulus blitz |
Asian share markets were in the red on Monday as mixed Chinese economic news underlined the country's bumpy recovery.
Chinese blue chips were off 0.2% after retail sales topped forecasts by rising 3.7% in May, but industrial output and fixed-asset investment both underwhelmed.
Other data showed home prices fell at the fastest pace in a decade in May, highlighting the continued strains in the property sector.
The People's Bank of China (PBOC) kept its one-year rate unchanged, dashing some speculation of a cut following surprisingly soft bank lending data.
China's official Financial News on Monday reported there was still room to lower rates, but there were internal and external constraints on policy. |
The economic "data dump" from Beijing on Friday showed that China's recovery is sputtering - investment growth slowed, retail sales expanded at the slowest pace since late 2022, and new home prices fell at the fastest rate in nine years.
Most alarming, the property sector bust is deepening. Granted, Chinese and Hong Kong shares jumped on Friday after Beijing unveiled a series of historic steps to stabilize the sector, but will the bounce last?
Even though the central bank said it is facilitating 1 trillion yuan in extra funding and easing mortgage rules, and local governments will buy some apartments, deep-rooted fundamentals of huge over-supply and weak demand remain. |
As of March 2024 China held $767.4bln of US Treasury's, their lowest level of holdings for many a year.
The UK, which has been steadily increasing its holdings of US Treasury's now holds just $39.3.bln less than China, 20 months ago the difference was $293.1bln.
It seems to me reasonable to say in only a few short months the UK will become the second largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasury's.
Over the past year Mexico has increased it's US Treasury holdings by 36% while France has increased by a whopping 55%, Canada by 47%, Ireland 26% & Luxembourg 22%.
Meanwhile, apart from China only Belgium, Switzerland and Hong Kong have reduced their US Treasury holdings over the past 12 months. |
That's reassuring, Logan. I'm not sure that the intelligence services share your confidence; though what we hear is obviously filtered through MSM. Countries do daft things; and China's record since 1949 is hardly inspiring. 100k troops lost would be small fry in the greater scheme of national reassertion. |
B5 - I lived in Taiwan and every local I chatted with firmly believed that China will not invade as it is not in China's interest to do so.
Taiwan is one of the biggest investors in China, especially in the high tech area and is also a funnel for foreign currency into China.
China is likely to lose at least 100,000 troops in any invasion while the Taiwanese up to 1mln loses. Then because Taiwan is so mountainous they could go into the mountains and carry out gorilla attacks on the Chinese for many years to come.
Taiwan would be devastated by any invasion by China and would therefore be of little to no use to China for many years to come.
The Chinese are not so stupid as the United States and think long term, very long long term and as long as the U.S. do not do anything stupid or foolish when it comes to Taiwan there's a very high likelihood that China will not invade. |
Logan, what makes you so sure that China would not attack Taiwan? Naturally I hope you're right, but as we have seen in Ukraine, not all invasions are rationale, let alone based on cost-benefit analyses. |
Least he was honest on his intentions.
I did say that it wouldn’t go that low
D |
logan,
This is a copy of your post number 271 from just three months ago on 23/1/24:-
"I hope to re-buy back in at around the 100p level."
Price then 200p.
Price today 255p.
Care to comment? |
I've lived in Taiwan and can categorically say unless the United States does something stupid or foolish in the area China will not invade or attack Taiwan as it is not in their interest to do so. |
Yes, but that could all be gone in an instant if they threaten to attack Taiwan. So people are right to be cautious. Nevertheless, afaic this kind of exposure with value/momentum + income surely deserves a place in a diversified folio. |
I still think in the long run China is a better bet then the United States as Chinese GDP is based on what they actually 'Produce' while U.S. GDP is mainly based on what they 'Consume' and if not Consumption then its pushing around peace's of paper between financial institutions at an ever increasing cost. |
Over £2.50. This has been historic support and resistance on its way from £4 in 2022/23. Doesn't mean it's going to get there obviously, but I'm pleasantly surprised by the strength of this recovery. |
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