Jpmorgan China Growth & ... Share Discussion Threads

[loganair] 13/10/2024 08:40

The property market in China = 2.5% of their yearly increase in GDP.

Before the property market implosion Chinese GDP was increasing at 7.0% to 7.5%, therefore since the implosion their GDP has naturally fallen to 4.5% to 5.0% and there is nothing that China can really do about this as the property market is not coming back any time soon.

[shano2] 27/9/2024 11:30

Solid backing for a reserve currency when it comes.

The NAV has jumped up nicely which is handy as the 4% dividend is calculated next week.

[loganair] 27/9/2024 09:25

I understand that China has been hoovering up as much gold and silver concentrate as they can get their hands on directly from the mines.

Only offical purchases of Fine Silver or 99.5% plus pure gold by a reserve bank is supposed to be reported to the IMF.

Therefore these concentrates and any gold or silver bought by PLA bank or other government owned banks do not and are not reported. I understand over the past few years China has been buying 1,000 tons of gold per year this way, not including their offically bought gold by their central bank.

Since the start of the conflict in Ukraine Russia is said to have bought 1,000 tones of gold while this year Saudia Arabia behind the scenes has bought 120 tons of gold.

While in the first 6 months of 2024 India has bought 4,000 tones of silver, which is 7 times more then they did during the first 6 months of 2023.

[shano2] 27/9/2024 07:59

Chinese stocks on track for best week since 2008 after stimulus blitz

[loganair] 17/6/2024 07:56

Asian share markets were in the red on Monday as mixed Chinese economic news underlined the country's bumpy recovery.

Chinese blue chips were off 0.2% after retail sales topped forecasts by rising 3.7% in May, but industrial output and fixed-asset investment both underwhelmed.

Other data showed home prices fell at the fastest pace in a decade in May, highlighting the continued strains in the property sector.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) kept its one-year rate unchanged, dashing some speculation of a cut following surprisingly soft bank lending data.

China's official Financial News on Monday reported there was still room to lower rates, but there were internal and external constraints on policy.

[loganair] 20/5/2024 11:15

The economic "data dump" from Beijing on Friday showed that China's recovery is sputtering - investment growth slowed, retail sales expanded at the slowest pace since late 2022, and new home prices fell at the fastest rate in nine years.

Most alarming, the property sector bust is deepening. Granted, Chinese and Hong Kong shares jumped on Friday after Beijing unveiled a series of historic steps to stabilize the sector, but will the bounce last?

Even though the central bank said it is facilitating 1 trillion yuan in extra funding and easing mortgage rules, and local governments will buy some apartments, deep-rooted fundamentals of huge over-supply and weak demand remain.

[loganair] 16/5/2024 15:15

As of March 2024 China held $767.4bln of US Treasury's, their lowest level of holdings for many a year.

The UK, which has been steadily increasing its holdings of US Treasury's now holds just $39.3.bln less than China, 20 months ago the difference was $293.1bln.

It seems to me reasonable to say in only a few short months the UK will become the second largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasury's.

Over the past year Mexico has increased it's US Treasury holdings by 36% while France has increased by a whopping 55%, Canada by 47%, Ireland 26% & Luxembourg 22%.

Meanwhile, apart from China only Belgium, Switzerland and Hong Kong have reduced their US Treasury holdings over the past 12 months.

[brucie5] 13/5/2024 11:13

That's reassuring, Logan. I'm not sure that the intelligence services share your confidence; though what we hear is obviously filtered through MSM. Countries do daft things; and China's record since 1949 is hardly inspiring. 100k troops lost would be small fry in the greater scheme of national reassertion.

[loganair] 13/5/2024 09:36

B5 - I lived in Taiwan and every local I chatted with firmly believed that China will not invade as it is not in China's interest to do so.

Taiwan is one of the biggest investors in China, especially in the high tech area and is also a funnel for foreign currency into China.

China is likely to lose at least 100,000 troops in any invasion while the Taiwanese up to 1mln loses. Then because Taiwan is so mountainous they could go into the mountains and carry out gorilla attacks on the Chinese for many years to come.

Taiwan would be devastated by any invasion by China and would therefore be of little to no use to China for many years to come.

The Chinese are not so stupid as the United States and think long term, very long long term and as long as the U.S. do not do anything stupid or foolish when it comes to Taiwan there's a very high likelihood that China will not invade.

[brucie5] 13/5/2024 09:05

Logan, what makes you so sure that China would not attack Taiwan? Naturally I hope you're right, but as we have seen in Ukraine, not all invasions are rationale, let alone based on cost-benefit analyses.

[dennisbergkamp] 10/5/2024 09:09

Least he was honest on his intentions.

I did say that it wouldn’t go that low

D

[quepassa] 10/5/2024 07:16

logan,

This is a copy of your post number 271 from just three months ago on 23/1/24:-

"I hope to re-buy back in at around the 100p level."

Price then 200p.

Price today 255p.



Care to comment?

[loganair] 09/5/2024 15:59

I've lived in Taiwan and can categorically say unless the United States does something stupid or foolish in the area China will not invade or attack Taiwan as it is not in their interest to do so.

[brucie5] 09/5/2024 15:56

Yes, but that could all be gone in an instant if they threaten to attack Taiwan. So people are right to be cautious. Nevertheless, afaic this kind of exposure with value/momentum + income surely deserves a place in a diversified folio.

[loganair] 09/5/2024 15:49

I still think in the long run China is a better bet then the United States as Chinese GDP is based on what they actually 'Produce' while U.S. GDP is mainly based on what they 'Consume' and if not Consumption then its pushing around peace's of paper between financial institutions at an ever increasing cost.

[brucie5] 09/5/2024 15:05

Over £2.50. This has been historic support and resistance on its way from £4 in 2022/23. Doesn't mean it's going to get there obviously, but I'm pleasantly surprised by the strength of this recovery.

[brucie5] 04/5/2024 13:49

Looking very good, barring any further disastrous escalations off the Taiwan straits. For which reason you need to keep an eye.
Not therefore, perhaps, for a passive fund; but having added last week I now hold a full position.

[loganair] 27/4/2024 16:21

25 April 2024 - Fidelity - China, India: which is the best buy? by Graham Smith:


China or India?

Ultimately it comes down to a trade-off between expected growth and current valuations. China looks cheap around current levels, while India may be verging on expensive. Even so, investors probably won’t mind too much paying up for India’s growth provided it keeps going.

Forecasts suggest Indian growth is set to remain world-beating over the medium term. That implies even stronger earnings growth among the companies best placed to capitalise on India’s success.

Meanwhile, China has begun to attract contrarian buyers on the basis that the bad news is in the price. Shares appear to have broken out of the yearlong downtrend of 2023 following a trend reversal at the beginning of February. These are the first signs we’ve seen of the possible ending of the buy India/sell China trade.

Given that China’s government appears to have thrown its hat into the ring in an effort to support the economy and stock market, hopes run high a new uptrend is forming. Signals from the economy have been broadly positive, including improving manufacturing surveys and inflation turning positive in February after six months in negative territory.

For all its present difficulties as well as far less favourable population demographics, China’s middle class will probably expand further over the next few years driving current and new markets with it. China’s evolving aspirational brands and the dominant market positions it has built up in electronic vehicles (EVs) and renewable energy hint at the great potential still to be tapped.

[brucie5] 26/4/2024 12:11

Sp recovery looks like it has some legs. Meanwhile this trades on 11% discount while yielding >6%. Only 5% in property.
Second largest economy in the world surely deserves some exposure for income/growth folios?

[shano2] 12/4/2024 10:06

re dividend: JPMorgan China Growth & Income plc's dividend policy aims to set a target annual dividend, in the absence of unforeseen circumstances, equivalent to 4 per cent. of the Company's NAV on the last business day of the preceding financial year.(last business day in September)

[brucie5] 11/4/2024 09:52

Exploratory buy here. Over 2.20 and it breaks back through the 200 WMA, while yielding 6.4% on a 12% discount. Dividend appears to have been cut in 2023, from c. 3.40 to 2.80, so cannot be sure what the future holds; though ten years ago it was yielding just 1.60, which is near to double.
On the one hand China carries obvious risks - on the other, it's the world's second largest economy. Does it make sense to be out?
The chart is at a 5 year low; so one could hardly be accused to buying at the top.
;)

[loganair] 10/4/2024 10:56

China's markets were also under a cloud on Wednesday after Fitch cut its outlook on China's sovereign credit rating to negative, citing risks to public finances as the economy faces increasing uncertainty in its shift to new growth models.

The outlook downgrade follows a similar move by Moody's in December and comes as Beijing ratchets up efforts to spur a feeble post-COVID recovery in the world's second-largest economy with fiscal and monetary support.