Jpmorgan China Growth & ... Share Discussion Threads

[neilyb675] 22/12/2023 12:39

JPMORGAN CHINA GROWTH & INCOME PLC (the
'Company')
Legal Entity Identifier: 549300S8M91P5FYONY25
THE COMPANY ANNOUNCES THE UNAUDITED NET
ASSET VALUE (NAV) As at: 21 December 2023
THE NET ASSET VALUE PER SHARE IN PENCE,
INCLUDING INCOME WITH DEBT AT FAIR VALUE: 241.98

[loganair] 17/12/2023 22:32

China has officially acknowledged they over counted their population by 100mln, 3/4 of this over count being women and that their population peaked somewhere around 2010/2012.

Currently the Chinese population is said to be falling by 250,000 a year and by 2030 its expected to be falling by around 2.5mln per year and 2035 falling by between 3.5mln and 4mln per year.

By 2030 China is forecast to have more retirees than workers.

[loganair] 17/12/2023 21:31

I'm not surprised the Chinese housing pyramid has come tumbling down, considering many of these apartments are bought as investments, circa 60mln plus apartments to still be completed, then to flip when they're built rather than bought my the person who is going to live in them.

In 1980 China's urban population stood at just 19.6% of their total population, by the year 2000 this had reached 36.4% and today in 2023 is 65.0%.

This was successful when 40% of the Chinese population was moving from the countryside to the cities, now this mass move has finished, plus the Chinese population is already starting to fall there is no longer a need to build all these tens of millions of apartments each year.

[kiwi2007] 17/12/2023 21:08

China released a wide set of national data over the weekend. In the official data none of their 70 largest cities reported any house price growth based on housing resales. Overall their housing index was said to fall -0.2%, but sales of new units are low and now quite problematic. Sales of used units are showing much larger declines than the index they released, both month-on-month and year-on-year. In fact they are now heading for a multi-year retreat, the first they have had.

Going the other way, China reported that electricity production was up +8.4% in November from the same month in 2022. That supports the better than expected industrial production data they also reported, up +6.6%.

And also gaining were retail sales. Although very little changed from October, the jump from a year ago is an eye-catching +10.1% - at least until you realise the base was very stunted and they were just contemplating easing Covid restrictions. Correcting for that, the year-on-year gain seems to be about +4%.

China is getting ultra-sensitive about talk of economic problems - and their Ministry of State Security is on the case warning officials and commentators about not holding the Party line about the country's "bright future". And in Hong Kong the Party is putting on a show trial for an imprisoned publisher.

Meanwhile, foreign patent holders are finding that Chinese courts side with local companies and will chop royalties agreed in existing deals that they subsequently don't like.

[...]

Bottom close?

[loganair] 07/12/2023 12:08

China's crude oil imports fall:

And yet, it was hard to ignore the latest oil price fall to its lowest since June as another major disinflationary force - while trade news from China continued to show worrying demand signs from the world's second biggest economy despite some rebound in overall exports.

China's crude oil imports in November fell 9.2% year-on-year, the first annual decline since April, as high inventory levels and poor manufacturing activity took their toll.

[loganair] 01/12/2023 08:45

Gloom in China:

The general gloom surrounding China's economy and financial markets shows little sign of lifting, despite some sporadic positive surprises recently like the strong third quarter GDP growth figures.

A survey by central banking think tank OMFIF of 22 public pension and sovereign wealth funds managing $4.3 trillion in assets, showed that none reported a positive outlook for China's economy.

They cited the regulatory environment and geopolitics among primary factors dissuading them from investing. Foreigners already appear to be voting with their feet - China just recorded its first-ever quarterly deficit in foreign direct investment.

[loganair] 25/11/2023 11:22

At the BRICS conference in August they told China it needs to internationalise the Yuan which they have been slowly doing by loaning 3rd tier countries USD and demanding repayments in the Yuan and not the USD + signing swamp agreements with other countries = Internationalising the Yuan.

As well as swapping gold for U.S. Treasuries the other big reason why the Chinese are not rolling over their U.S. Treasuries when they become due as they are using these USD to loan to 3rd tier countries.

This shows China is taking the internationalizing of the Yuan extremely seriously.


Why has Xi been getting rid of the old guard from his government and certain Chinese oligarchs over the past year?

Because the old guard are the ones in the government and and these oligarchs are the ones who are pro currency and pro U.S. Treasury holdings while XI is pro Gold and de-dollarising.

This is why the Western media demonises Xi so much simply because he has the opposite view to the Western elites and Western bankers.

[loganair] 24/11/2023 12:18

Giving thanks you're not in China stocks:

But with most overseas stocks steady to higher, perhaps the most eye-catching moves involved the relentless drain on Chinese stocks - which recorded their lowest close in almost a month and are now underperforming the MSCI all-country index by almost 20% for 2023 to date.

With data showing plunging foreign direct investment into the world's second-largest economy this year, Friday saw overseas investors selling another net 6.2 billion yuan ($859.79 million) of Chinese shares via the Stock Connect - the biggest daily outflow in more than one month.

The decline marked yet another investor shrug at reports of further official moves to shore up China's ailing property sector.

[loganair] 21/11/2023 13:38

As several economists have opined, weaponizing SWIFT, CHIPS (The Clearing House Interbank Payments System) and the US Dollar against Russia will only spur geopolitical rivals like China to accelerate the process of de-dollarisation.

The main benefactor of economic sanctions against Russia appears to be China which can reshape the Eurasian market by encouraging member states of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and BRICS to bypass the SWIFT ecosystem and settle cross-border international payments in the Digital Yuan.

[loganair] 17/11/2023 17:24

I'm the Little Man and for several years I've been posting that China is going to do what ever it is going to do when their U.S. Treasury holdings reach between $700bln and $800bln however the Big Men have been saying earlier in the year that China is going to do what China is going to do when their U.S. Treasury holdings are between $500bln and $700bln.

At China's current rate of reduction, by the end of 2024 they'll be down to holding circa $600bln worth of U.S. Treasury's.

[loganair] 17/11/2023 16:55

For several years I've been posting that China will continue to gently and slowly reduce their US Treasury holdings by letting them mature and not reinvesting this money back into Treasuries rather than outright selling any U.S. Treasuries, however will not do much until they reduce them to between $700bln to $800bln before making their real move, what ever this move is going to be.

China continues to reduce its holdings of US Treasury's...Figures given are always for PAR value therefore do not change due to the bond prices going up or down.

2023:

Sep - $778.1bln
Aug - $805.4bln
Jul - $821.8bln
Jun - $835.4bln
May - $846.7bln
Jan - $859.4bln

2022:

Nov - $870.0bln
Oct - $877.8bln
Sep - $933.6bln
Aug - $971.8bln


The UK is now up to $698.1bln only $107.3bln less than China. Just a year ago the difference was $293.1bln.

Countries that have significantly increased their U.S. Treasury holdings over the past year are UK, Luxemburg, Belgium, Canada who have increased by 30%, Ireland, Singapore, South Korea and Bermuda.

Interestingly however compare to August the amount of U.S. treasury's held by the U.K. is significantly down in September.

Apart from China, Which other countries have been decreasing their holdings?

Japan, Switzerland, Brazil, Norway, Saudi Arabia.

Japan continues to reduce October compared to September as has Norway.

[loganair] 26/10/2023 09:09

Fog of uncertainty in China:

The fog of uncertainty descended further over China's embattled property sector after it was reported on Wednesday that China's largest private lender Country Garden has defaulted on a U.S. dollar bond for the first time.

[loganair] 24/10/2023 15:34

I do not have sufficient knowledge to be able to invest in specific shares in countries such as China or India or Vietnam etc, therefore I invest via an investment trust - far less worry for me.

[barrie16] 24/10/2023 15:10

Loganair

Thanks for the reply. I've recently sold all my shares in JP Morgan Chinese,but would like to get back in to the Chinese market, I am worried however of the bellicose actions by China. Watch and wait at the moment I suppose.

[loganair] 24/10/2023 10:47

China is not trying to replace the USD but trying to reduce their USD footprint by engaging in bilateral trade in the Yuan as are other countries trying to limit their USD footprint.

[loganair] 24/10/2023 08:34

barrie16 - I'm waiting for the share price to fall further, start picking up a few at around the 150p level then see where it goes from there.

[loganair] 24/10/2023 08:32

Latest signals from China:

So will the latest signals from China, which continues to post substantial capital outflows.

According to Goldman Sachs, outflows in September jumped to $75 billion, the biggest monthly figure since 2016, up from a still hefty $42 billion in August.

"The unfavorable interest rate spread between China and the US will likely imply persistent depreciation and outflow pressures in coming months," Goldman analysts warned.

Blue chip Chinese stocks on Monday hit their lowest level since February, 2019, and given China's weight in Asian and emerging market equity indexes, Tuesday could be a challenge.

[barrie16] 24/10/2023 07:19

loganair

Is china a place to invest in at the moment???

[loganair] 23/10/2023 16:05

For several years I've been posting that China will continue to gently and slowly reduce their US Treasury holdings by letting them mature and not reinvesting this money back into Treasuries rather than outright selling any U.S. Treasuries, however will not do much until they reduce them to between $700bln to $800bln before making their real move, what ever this move is going to be.

China continues to reduce its holdings of US Treasury's...

2023:

Aug - $805.4bln
Jul - $821.8bln
Jun - $835.4bln
May - $846.7bln
Jan - $859.4bln

2022:

Nov - $870.0bln
Oct - $877.8bln
Sep - $933.6bln
Aug - $971.8bln


The UK is now up to $698.1bln only $107.3bln less than China. Just a year ago the difference was $293.1bln.

Countries that have significantly increased their U.S. Treasury holdings over the past year are UK, Luxemburg, Belgium, Canada who have increased by 30%, Ireland, Singapore, South Korea and Bermuda.

Apart from China, Which other countries have been decreasing their holdings?

Japan, Switzerland, Brazil, Norway, Saudi Arabia,

[loganair] 19/10/2023 08:29

Country Garden flirts with default:

Investors may also deliver a delayed or revised verdict on China's generally upbeat economic indicators from Wednesday, which included third quarter year-on-year growth of 4.9%, much stronger than most economists had expected.

Chinese stocks fell sharply on Wednesday, pressured by deepening turmoil in the country's property sector as top private developer Country Garden flirts with default.

[loganair] 13/10/2023 07:10

China's economy has been hit on several fronts this year. The currency hit a 16-year low, investors have dumped the country's stocks and bonds, the property sector is imploding and disinflation is threatening to morph into outright deflation.

Annual producer price inflation has been negative for a year, although consumer inflation only briefly dipped below zero in July. September's PPI and CPI readings on Friday will be closely watched for signs that the economy is reflating.

[loganair] 19/9/2023 12:51

For several years I've been posting that China will continue to gently and slowly reduce their US Treasury holdings by letting them mature and not reinvesting this money back into Treasuries rather than outright selling any U.S. Treasuries, however will not do much until they reduce them to between $700bln to $800bln before making their real move, what ever this move is going to be.

China continues to reduce its holdings of US Treasury's...


Jul - $821.8bln
Jun - $835.4bln
May - $846.7bln
Jan - $859.4bln

2022:

Nov - $870.0bln
Oct - $877.8bln
Sep - $933.6bln
Aug - $971.8bln

[loganair] 08/9/2023 05:41

China's sputtering economy:

China remains a drag on sentiment and market performance.

The onshore yuan fell on Thursday to its weakest since December 2007, nudging 7.33 per dollar and intensifying the pressure on authorities to arrest its decline. Unfortunately for Beijing, it also highlights the limited options available.

The sputtering economy needs stimulus, but any meaningful policy easing will almost certainly push the yuan even lower. The weaker the yuan gets, the greater the risk of investors pulling money out of China and exacerbating a doom loop of FX depreciation, asset market weakness and capital flight.

[loganair] 29/8/2023 06:33

The reaction of Chinese stocks on Monday to new measures from Beijing to boost local markets at once emboldened the bull and bear cases - bulls will point to the rise of more than 1% for the best day in a month, while bears will note that stocks had risen 5.5%, so the close was extremely lackluster.

Despite the latest steps to boost confidence, foreign investors offloaded a net 8.2 billion yuan ($1.12 billion) of Chinese stocks via the Stock Connect on Monday, and have now been net sellers in 15 out of the last 16 sessions.

This helps explain why the yuan remains under sustained downward pressure, languishing around the weakest level of the year against the dollar near the key 7.30 level. A break below that will take the yuan into territory not recorded since late 2007.

[loganair] 24/8/2023 06:54

BRICS countries now = 40% of world oil production and over 30% of gas production and by 2050 is forecast to have double the GDP of the G7 + EU.