Jpmorgan China Growth & ... Share Discussion Threads

[loganair] 16/5/2024 16:15

As of March 2024 China held $767.4bln of US Treasury's, their lowest level of holdings for many a year.

The UK, which has been steadily increasing its holdings of US Treasury's now holds just $39.3.bln less than China, 20 months ago the difference was $293.1bln.

It seems to me reasonable to say in only a few short months the UK will become the second largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasury's.

Over the past year Mexico has increased it's US Treasury holdings by 36% while France has increased by a whopping 55%, Canada by 47%, Ireland 26% & Luxembourg 22%.

Meanwhile, apart from China only Belgium, Switzerland and Hong Kong have reduced their US Treasury holdings over the past 12 months.

[brucie5] 13/5/2024 12:13

That's reassuring, Logan. I'm not sure that the intelligence services share your confidence; though what we hear is obviously filtered through MSM. Countries do daft things; and China's record since 1949 is hardly inspiring. 100k troops lost would be small fry in the greater scheme of national reassertion.

[loganair] 13/5/2024 10:36

B5 - I lived in Taiwan and every local I chatted with firmly believed that China will not invade as it is not in China's interest to do so.

Taiwan is one of the biggest investors in China, especially in the high tech area and is also a funnel for foreign currency into China.

China is likely to lose at least 100,000 troops in any invasion while the Taiwanese up to 1mln loses. Then because Taiwan is so mountainous they could go into the mountains and carry out gorilla attacks on the Chinese for many years to come.

Taiwan would be devastated by any invasion by China and would therefore be of little to no use to China for many years to come.

The Chinese are not so stupid as the United States and think long term, very long long term and as long as the U.S. do not do anything stupid or foolish when it comes to Taiwan there's a very high likelihood that China will not invade.

[brucie5] 13/5/2024 10:05

Logan, what makes you so sure that China would not attack Taiwan? Naturally I hope you're right, but as we have seen in Ukraine, not all invasions are rationale, let alone based on cost-benefit analyses.

[dennisbergkamp] 10/5/2024 10:09

Least he was honest on his intentions.

I did say that it wouldn’t go that low

D

[quepassa] 10/5/2024 08:16

logan,

This is a copy of your post number 271 from just three months ago on 23/1/24:-

"I hope to re-buy back in at around the 100p level."

Price then 200p.

Price today 255p.



Care to comment?

[loganair] 09/5/2024 16:59

I've lived in Taiwan and can categorically say unless the United States does something stupid or foolish in the area China will not invade or attack Taiwan as it is not in their interest to do so.

[brucie5] 09/5/2024 16:56

Yes, but that could all be gone in an instant if they threaten to attack Taiwan. So people are right to be cautious. Nevertheless, afaic this kind of exposure with value/momentum + income surely deserves a place in a diversified folio.

[loganair] 09/5/2024 16:49

I still think in the long run China is a better bet then the United States as Chinese GDP is based on what they actually 'Produce' while U.S. GDP is mainly based on what they 'Consume' and if not Consumption then its pushing around peace's of paper between financial institutions at an ever increasing cost.

[brucie5] 09/5/2024 16:05

Over £2.50. This has been historic support and resistance on its way from £4 in 2022/23. Doesn't mean it's going to get there obviously, but I'm pleasantly surprised by the strength of this recovery.

[brucie5] 04/5/2024 14:49

Looking very good, barring any further disastrous escalations off the Taiwan straits. For which reason you need to keep an eye.
Not therefore, perhaps, for a passive fund; but having added last week I now hold a full position.

[loganair] 27/4/2024 17:21

25 April 2024 - Fidelity - China, India: which is the best buy? by Graham Smith:


China or India?

Ultimately it comes down to a trade-off between expected growth and current valuations. China looks cheap around current levels, while India may be verging on expensive. Even so, investors probably won’t mind too much paying up for India’s growth provided it keeps going.

Forecasts suggest Indian growth is set to remain world-beating over the medium term. That implies even stronger earnings growth among the companies best placed to capitalise on India’s success.

Meanwhile, China has begun to attract contrarian buyers on the basis that the bad news is in the price. Shares appear to have broken out of the yearlong downtrend of 2023 following a trend reversal at the beginning of February. These are the first signs we’ve seen of the possible ending of the buy India/sell China trade.

Given that China’s government appears to have thrown its hat into the ring in an effort to support the economy and stock market, hopes run high a new uptrend is forming. Signals from the economy have been broadly positive, including improving manufacturing surveys and inflation turning positive in February after six months in negative territory.

For all its present difficulties as well as far less favourable population demographics, China’s middle class will probably expand further over the next few years driving current and new markets with it. China’s evolving aspirational brands and the dominant market positions it has built up in electronic vehicles (EVs) and renewable energy hint at the great potential still to be tapped.

[brucie5] 26/4/2024 13:11

Sp recovery looks like it has some legs. Meanwhile this trades on 11% discount while yielding >6%. Only 5% in property.
Second largest economy in the world surely deserves some exposure for income/growth folios?

[shano2] 12/4/2024 11:06

re dividend: JPMorgan China Growth & Income plc's dividend policy aims to set a target annual dividend, in the absence of unforeseen circumstances, equivalent to 4 per cent. of the Company's NAV on the last business day of the preceding financial year.(last business day in September)

[brucie5] 11/4/2024 10:52

Exploratory buy here. Over 2.20 and it breaks back through the 200 WMA, while yielding 6.4% on a 12% discount. Dividend appears to have been cut in 2023, from c. 3.40 to 2.80, so cannot be sure what the future holds; though ten years ago it was yielding just 1.60, which is near to double.
On the one hand China carries obvious risks - on the other, it's the world's second largest economy. Does it make sense to be out?
The chart is at a 5 year low; so one could hardly be accused to buying at the top.
;)

[loganair] 10/4/2024 11:56

China's markets were also under a cloud on Wednesday after Fitch cut its outlook on China's sovereign credit rating to negative, citing risks to public finances as the economy faces increasing uncertainty in its shift to new growth models.

The outlook downgrade follows a similar move by Moody's in December and comes as Beijing ratchets up efforts to spur a feeble post-COVID recovery in the world's second-largest economy with fiscal and monetary support.

[loganair] 20/3/2024 17:33

The UK now holds only $44.2bln less US Treasuries than China, 4 months ago the difference was $76.3bln and 18 months was $293.1bln.

It seems to me reasonable to say in only a few short months the UK will become the second largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasury's having increased their holdings by 15% over the past year.

In the past year Canada has increased its US Treasury holdings by 34% to $339.8bln while Luxembourg have increased by 19% to $376.5bln and Ireland increased by 26% to $319.7bln.

France have increased their holdings by a massive 47% to $267.5bln.

Over the past year, apart from China only Switzerland and Belgium have reduced their holdings of US Treasuries.

[shano2] 13/3/2024 17:25

looks like the downtrend may be over with a breakout of the downward channel.

[loganair] 13/3/2024 10:54

Country Garden misses coupon payment:

China's stocks slipped again on Wednesday - dragged down by ailing property developers as Country Garden missed a coupon payment on its debt. The yuan also fell back sharply.

[dennisbergkamp] 06/3/2024 19:05

That’s mad - as someone who works with SWIFT
D

[loganair] 06/3/2024 15:28

Just think, it was only half way through last year that the Yuan over took Sterling to become the 3rd most used currency on SWIFT and now it has over taken the Euro to become the 2nd most used currency on the SWIFT payment system.

[loganair] 04/3/2024 07:57

Investors await National People's Congress:

The annual National People's Congress in Beijing opens on Tuesday and what is laid out by parliament could go a long way to determining the 2024 path for assets in China. And beyond.

Premier Li Qiang will lay out Beijing's annual growth and other economic targets, and - crucially - a plan for achieving them.

Li is expected to set a growth target of around 5% for 2024 - the same as last year - to keep China on a path toward President Xi Jinping's goal of roughly doubling the economy by 2035.

Chinese leaders are under pressure to take more radical steps to shore up the property sector, ward off deflation and revive growth. But capital outflows have weakened the exchange rate, and large-scale fiscal easing could exacerbate that outflow-declining currency doom loop. To be sure, some of the recent numbers have been encouraging.

The Caixin manufacturing PMI last week was enough to lift China's overall economic surprises index to its highest level since mid-December.

Expectations have been lowered considerably in recent weeks as the data has underwhelmed, so it's not clear that this reflects particularly strong economic activity per se. But positive surprises are preferable to negative surprises.

Either way, Chinese equities have regained their footing and are up around 10% from the lows and are now in the green year to date.

[neilyb675] 19/2/2024 14:58

204.00 - 213.00 (GBX) at 14:55:47
on Market (LSE)

[loganair] 09/2/2024 09:44

I am still holding off investing in JCGI...

S&P equal weight is down 4% in 2023 and hasn't risen so far in 2024.

In the united States, 11th March the Bank Funding lapses, the U.S. banks have to repurchase all the treasuries they sold at Par + interest = withdrawing USD liquidity from the market.

Some time in April the Repo market is drained = no more input of USD liquidity into the market.

Also the U.S. January jobs report was not a blow out increase, in reality it was minus 32,000 and hourly pay actually went down by 3/10% and didn't rise as was reported..

Therefore there is highly likely to be much more down side in the near future.