Johnston Press Share Discussion Threads

[w1ndjammer] 30/8/2016 09:31

first ever buy this morning for me 8p ,target price 40p

lets see what happens.

WJ.

[salpara111] 30/8/2016 08:57

well there is virtually no value left in the equity.
Cant decide if its worth a small gamble.

[mattab] 27/8/2016 14:48

Tindles paper losses must be massive. If you look at the trades many of the sells are actually buys when this opened yesterday the advertised ask was 9.5 plus and the larger trades are buys and yet the MM seem intent on taking this down regardless. Perhaps punishing the lack of news due to sensitive information since the Interims.
Mr Highfield remains upbeat. “Our key shareholders are very supportive and come Christmas, I would expect we will have a lot more positive things to talk about,” he said.

From the FT article - less hope this is delivered. If not perhaps his position is untenable? Hopefully the start of newsflow next week to arrest this decline - share price at the lowest level ever - this they will be fully aware of.

[dazzaa] 27/8/2016 12:11

Yes matt what you say is possible but I think old Tindle will not see it like that he's pretty canny having paid for IOM recently, certainly not overpaying but as you allude the target is reducing the debt and that too is acknowledged by the company so we just wait.

Eddy was that your late buy yesterday ?

[mattab] 27/8/2016 10:26

Won't be a rights issue IMO - they are selling parts of the non core business to buy the heavily discounted bonds - first of many I suspect was the IOM sale. It is on record that is their intention, which the majority at the latter stages very soon to be in the public domain. This is not shorted MRX is indeed correct. They will be in place an agreement that the major institutions to hold - as only the board, know what is in the pipeline and holding sensitive information that prevents director buying. Have to smile that there are two target prices by brokers reiterated from Interims of 180 and 200 pence. GL all holders too much Instituionally owned circa 60 per cent combined and at epic paper losses and they are holding - in effect they must know impending news not in the public domain that could transform this either that or they are sticking their heads in the sand which they do not do. They just exit regardless of the massive losses.

[catswhiskas] 27/8/2016 09:05

Imo and this is a guess there may be a d4e or rights issue coming to re finance the company .The equity is worthless and is being sold down by short sellers probably jp institutional holders who will then buy back at the prevailing price they will know if there is a rights issue say at 5p because they will have been asked to finance it.

[mrx9000] 26/8/2016 22:04

Shorted by a fund in the know? The last short positions from short tracker etc were in 2014.

[catswhiskas] 26/8/2016 20:27

You can make just as much money trading FTSE100 stocks as you can buying into fledglings even worse AIM.Firstly they don't collapse like this and you don't wake up to the minus 50% rns either so why take the risk .This stock really has collapsed and it wont be without good reason it will be actively being shorted by a fund in the know does jpr need to raise funds to service its debts ?

[mattab] 26/8/2016 18:26

2 price monitoring extensions. What is exactly going on with this share? Last price paid 8.75 and then the price Monintoring extensions x2 then gone from up to 8.2 pence nearly five percent down hopefully some news next week or suspect further falls. There is too much in this Institutions et al - but at some point it has to stop falling - hopefully some rumour in the Weekend press of a takeover it was grim at interim day when it fell to just above 11 pence - on the value of the equity this looks like it is going to hell in a handcart. Perhaps you would think the Instutions may add to mop up at these ever decreasing lows especially if they on board to hold as AH stated.

[mattab] 26/8/2016 17:07

Yes top post MRX and agree with all you say. The MM will mark it wherever Dazzaa and in the absence of news they can and will play on small volume - plenty of news to come will be a mixture of what MRX has stated in his post IMO. Dependent on which route they take. However just to get back to prior to Interim day 14 pence this has to increase massively just to get there, never mind the the 47 pence months ago on the pension news. Truly dismal share price performance. On the upside the Institutions are holding and perhaps by Christmas this could be multiples of where we are now - however it gets there - bonds buy back - re-rating - BID. There cannot be many in the free float. 60 percent Institutional ownership - there will be the free shares and SIPS for employees and of course the poor sap PIs who all will be underwater some massively along with the Institutions who are epically underwater. This will be on the radar certainly and will provide massive synergies for a couple of likely suitors. It will be interesting how this plays out. At the latter stages of a number of divestment sales likely to Tindle unless another enters the fray for the whole of JPR they have a tangible way of increasing the equity value by multiples. Interesting to watch and frustrating in equal measure - obviously there is sensitive information which prevents the Directors buying likely a great deal of sensitive information which is perhaps why the market knows they cannot buy it was in the Interims. Soon be Christmas we may not have to be wait that long.

[dazzaa] 26/8/2016 08:43

Mrx as always a good post and I am optimistic that we will see an upturn in the share price but why do the MM mark it so, do they the not see the facts as we do, what does it take ? market sentiment is one thing but we could, if one is brave really take the opportunity to buy all the way down to whatever and I don't discount the fact that it could reach 5p, my losses are so huge that it would provide comfort and profit that could not be possible unless one buys at current prices, they say a drowning man will cling to a matchstick.

[neilyb675] 26/8/2016 07:27

Excellent post mrx

[mrx9000] 26/8/2016 05:10

An early rise for me, to hot to sleep. I know stdyeddy, amazing...

There is more to this than meets the eyes. A few thoughts as I write this sitting outside to cool down.

- Directors certainly are in possession of price sensitive information, that prohibits them from buying eg advanced process of selling some titles
- Looking at the costs etc that they have incurred over the last few years a few things spring to mind and that is going forward a lot are not going to be there or will be a lot less, for example

- Future pension payments stated in the results are being reviewed this year and payments going forward are going to be a lot less
- Payments they have made for redundancies etc will be less than they have paid out before, I think last figure I saw was £5m.
- The switching on of the ad blocking tech has still not took place yet, this should bring in around £3-£5m extra a year at least.
- And then a fairly big one, if they do get say £30-£40m on title sales, add on the £10m of cash to make £40-£50m for which they will still have at least £5m of working capital and used this to pay bonds, they could clear about £70-£90m from the bonds. This is significant as £70m would be nearly a third wiped off the debt. A third wiped of the debt would be a third wiped off the interest payments, hence they wiuld have around an extra £7m a year that they would not have to pay out.
- So we are looking at potentially another £20m a year that will be coming in on top of existing profits, which is significant and would result in a re rating.

It still at present generates £50m ebitda, something another company will see and of course will know all to well that with synergies they could easily take this to £70m ebitda. If a bid does come from one interested party, I see it also attracting a second bidder.

Also just seen the ABC results for digital where they have scored a 1-2 on increased digital, this is good news and early signs that the rollout of refreshed sites are working. Their competitors will also see this. When the ad blocking tech is switched on these figures will shoot up a lot further.

When news is out, I see directors buying the first opportunity they can.

Update: I also forgot to mention the £25m undrawn credit facility that they have. There are certain conditions to this but alas they could be waivered or negotiated eg they could use this £25m to pay off say £40 odd million in bond debt or I am not sure but maybe they could increase the £25m credit facility and use this increased amount to pay a chunk of bond debt on top of the above. So there is room here for quite a few scenarios.

Update 2: Another fact is that the main institionals have kept their position. AH stated in that FT article in that he should have some good news before Christmas. Not sure how much stock is about? Did someone say the max they could buy was 4k?

[stdyeddy] 26/8/2016 00:06

Hang your head in shame mrsx. Eight and a half pence!

[dazzaa] 25/8/2016 19:50

I'm no Trader or Analyst but clearly (or not so) something is brewing (witches) what could it possibly be, bid is possible, normally price rises, rumours of imminent demise, normally price collapses almost instantly, market trends, normally over extend the price both ways.

So every person has a view, some pitiful some fanciful some optimistic some realistic but in general it's a personal view without knowledge of the current facts "history is bunk" is correct in this instance, human nature as it is is optimistic so some will be buying The Share when it touches 5p looking for the turnaround, will you?

[extrader] 25/8/2016 18:29

Hi all,

Bonds last bid @ 50p in the £, next interest due 1st Dec. Such a discount would normally suggest the equity is worthless.

Why should it be different this time ?

ATB

[mattab] 25/8/2016 17:59

Today with costs 10 pence to buy a small amount - 2 to 3k - then MM dropped it to see if they could get some shares - wasn't successful - a wide spread. Some news in the pipeline me thinks. Classic MM. BID since all time low moved up from a pitiful amount at 8.21. IMO there must be Director buying - usually is not by AH but the others so there must be sensitive information that prevents them. However on paper another over 11 per cent wiped off the value of the equity. Look at the volume pitiful. On the equity in the death-throws, they are leaving themselves wide open here and with upper targets of 180 and 200 pence - I know low of 18 pence - the median is a beyond belief massive percentage - watch this space. I am firmly holding as this does defy belief - news needed and suspect tomorrow or rumour over the weekend - we shall see. GL

[stdyeddy] 22/8/2016 11:04

Cue mrsx - they have inside knowledge on imminent price sensitive massive moves etc. I reckon it's all down to the market-maker, keeping the spread so wide no one can get out and everyone's afraid to get in because of the debt and continuing revenue decline. Am still keeping it small.

[dazzaa] 22/8/2016 09:54

Yep the i is a good read, ditto with running out.

When they run out I castigate them (newsvendors)for not having keeping enough as surplus go back as free returns what the problem ? apparently the amount for sale is computer driven so they have no control true or not I don't know.

That said what would you say to a Sunday edition of the i at 75p now that's a thought, I bought S/T £2.50 and was really disappointed just dull and they they bulk it up with their own advertising pages .

If AH has such supreme confidence, again let us see the Directors buying.

[stdyeddy] 22/8/2016 08:55

I can't wait to see 'em do it dazz. Buy some of the bonds, put two fingers up to the ratings agencies - threatening with downgrades as if it makes any difference to the smashed jpr bond/sp status. The bonds will probably rise as a result and the share price along with them. What else can they sell? I know... they could sell some newspapers and some advertising.

Very pleased to see the i advertising pages going up. Possibly just the Rio effect but am hoping they can keep increasing it. Also my local newsagents keep selling out of the i. I had to go back to the Times twice last week. And now it's like my stomach has shrunk to accomodate smaller meals - couldn't finish it and left it on the restaurant table. Should've burned it I suppose.

[dazzaa] 22/8/2016 08:26

Remember they are stuck between a rock and a hard place with the additional chance of snow 50/1 ?

No doubt there will be more news when we know where Tindles money ends up.

[stdyeddy] 22/8/2016 07:20

I agree with you Matt. Can't wait to see what Ashley has got us for Christmas. Although the last time he promised something it was 'the tipping point' or something like that, where digital revenue would outgrow print revenue decline. And before that it was shareprice recovery after the rights issue. And before that it was... no wait. This could be a long post. I'm optimistic - I'm just gonna call it Ashley's Christmas Present and open it not too hastily and say a really polite thank you even if it is a bucket of sh1t.

Good luck everyone and a happy new year. Oh... we're not there yet. But it's gonna be great!!

[mattab] 21/8/2016 22:01

Mr Highfield remains upbeat. “Our key shareholders are very supportive and come Christmas, I would expect we will have a lot more positive things to talk about,” he said.


From the recent FT article.

Key shareholders remain very supportive is the salient point IMO - if they did not attest to AH's divestment strategy - this would get hammered without any doubt. However this is not the case - yes very near record lows. News about buying the bonds in the public domain. This is the time to be onboard in and around this level - levels certainly two to three multiples put us at the higher 30 pence.

If the Institutions are holding which looking at the volume that is a certainty - that's is circa 60 percent - further news of divestments - stated in the latter stages will materialise in due course - this really could spike up massively from these near lows - if at any anytime for JPR it is now from a predator. If there is an approach at least the MM have to move the share price to that area - if and how much is supposition of course and perhaps by Chrismas we could be multiples of where we are now on merit and justification.

There is too much invested at current massive paper losses to just exit IMO. Circa 60 per cent combined Instituitionaly owned is epic looking at the value of equity. Holding and waiting - interesting times to hold of very recent - vastly different to the long term holders - my exit price personally dependent on news - easy two to three times current share price and likely to sell too early - tend to do was in TW - tripped money at just under 10 pence and before Brexit over £2. GL

Those beleaguered and holding I strongly suggest hold. Plenty of upside I suspect certainly from this level

[bikwik] 19/8/2016 15:13

JP completes £4.25m sale of island weeklies to Tindle
by David Sharman Published 19 Aug 2016


Johnston Press has completed the sale of its three Isle of Man newspapers to Tindle.

As reported on HTFP last month, the two companies agreed the purchase of the Isle of Man Examiner, Isle of Man Courier, Manx Independent and www.iomtoday.co.im for £4.25m.

The sell-off is the first since JP revealed in January that it was exploring possible asset sales to help fund investment and pay down net debt.


A company statement issued by JP yesterday evening reads: “Further to the announcement on 6th July, Johnston Press plc is pleased to announce that it has today completed the sale of its titles on the Isle of Man to Tindle Newspapers Ltd, the UK based publisher, for £4.25m in cash.

“The disposal, comprising the Isle of Man Examiner, Isle of Man Courier, Manx Independent and www.iomtoday.co.im, is in line with the Group’s previously stated divestment strategy to align resources to brands and geographies offering the greatest growth opportunities.

“Proceeds from the disposal will support the company’s c and further deleverage the Company.”