Johnston Press Share Discussion Threads

[stdyeddy] 04/8/2016 19:57

Matt, I completely agree with you. A million shares traded on slightly worse than expected news; just 1% of the shares in issue, so not a massive reaction. The major shareholders need to act now - AH has been given a good run and he's made the business lean and mean, but overall his digital strategy is not working. Time for new thinking. Daz, am sorry this hasn't worked out for you - we all had high hopes for today but we're also used to jpr disappointing every time. I might be ready for another tablet now.

[stdyeddy] 04/8/2016 19:46

Thanks for the advice LMDP. I left the sharp objects where they are, but doubled the diazepam and went to bed. Feeling much better now. Luckily I've been bitten before by jpr so although I've taken a hit, it's nothing like as bad as it could've been. And yes, I am moaning but I'm sharing my thoughts with everyone here so that as a kind of hive mind, we can work out the right strategy for this situation.

However, everything written here makes sense, both for and against. I had exactly the same dilemma as nick (buy before the results or wait) but chose a half-way house, committed a good starter bet before the results and kept a chunk in reserve ready to act on the day. Glad that I did.

The drop over the last few weeks does look overdone, but if the ultimate destination is zero, then it doesn't really make much difference how far the jagged line strays from the mean path on the way down.

Let's see what the next few days bring, but mrsx, I'm really sorry to say it but I think your takeover theory is either wrong or premature to the point that it won't help anyone here. Maybe I should just short jpr as a public service, since it seems to move in the opposite direction to my investment every time.

[mattab] 04/8/2016 19:40

It is not their money and they will just write it off in a fund. But Tindle has paid masses and a massive paper loss as have all the other stakeholders - and I believe that is still to be added to the pot. Volume was small on interim results day - fact - it is what the I.I. do now that matters - if they call it a day - a crystallise massive losses - fortunately my investment is very recent - I will hold and a punt tbh. I do believe that at this juncture it really is the inflection point that AH talks about but never actually achieving. He really has to go - this does make JPR wide open for another preditor - too many stakeholders and combined - 60 percent to totally lose out - always darkest before dawn - will it get darker tbh do not know - but this is ripe and floundering for a takeover - it just has not worked and decimated shareholder value. The next few days will be an indicator even AH has to buy shares IMO even though it is not his bag. What happens now will be indicative - in the next few days. It is all about confidence and that's is lacking certainly. Watch this space is all any PI shareholder can do. The moves will come from the Institutions whatever form they take.

[le mass du pap] 04/8/2016 19:00

Look at ISDX, plenty of volume there. Instis won't throw good money after bad, they'll just cut their losses and sell if there isn't radical change soon. After all it's not their money so they don't get emotionally attached and certainly don't average down unless there's a good reason. Bottom line is, it's like Jessops, an old and dated medium, in this case print, in Jessops case cameras... and neither managed to embrace change and enter the 21st century quick enough. I can't believe this lot bought another newspaper for such a huge fee when everyone else is moving away.. and it's not even the Times or Telegraph, just the bloody i, whatever that is. Probably see this slide to around 5p and then you might get a more successful media mogul step in and pick up the good bits for peanuts after having the debt written off. After all, £12m seems cheap, but if it's bust and nursing huge debts in a declining market then it's worth less than nothing, literally. I'm off to stare at the bottom of a beer glass with not so steady eddy. Aimho, dyor, etc...

[mattab] 04/8/2016 18:34

Disappointing results but this may be the catalyst for some decent return. Volume is not massive by any means - perhaps punt money before results crystalising a loss. What the circa 60 percent Institutional Investors do is what really matters IMO and fact. This for me is a classic value Firesale takeover or perhaps wait and let it fold and pick over the assets - leaving shareholders with nothing. AH has to go IMO as I stated in an earlier post - absolute disgrace - the market cap valuation values JPR as an absolute basket case considering what it paid for the i. It could certainly get interesting at this more than any part of JPR's history IMO too many combined stakeholders that are going to be far from impressed and are going to want an exit far higher than market valuation. I would suggest and I will hold personally and is perhaps darkest before the dawn and at this juncture this is JPR's lowest ebb. May go lower however I suggest if there is any valuation in the equity the Institutional investors - some at least will back their intent and buy - Tindle will for sure IMO. MM took this down not on the volume of Institutions bailing - punt money perhaps following Trinity's results which were overall decent. Money to be made here IMO far too much combined for I.I. not to back this.

[nick rubens] 04/8/2016 15:24

"Ashley Highfield may have displayed confidence in paying £24m for the i but I reckon it's misplaced"

Bosses are always confident spending shareholders money.

I must admit I was potentially tempted form 20p and further down, but each time I was wondering exactly what would I be getting? Debts? Huge management salaries? Falling print sales? Risky 'i' venture?

As i Had been there once before and lost alot of sleep, I decided that a leopard doesn't change it's spots.

I always await the results before making the decision and once again did so and today opted for CMS instead and paying a premium to yesterday.

Upside here? potentially a bid! It's hard to see them earning their way out in the years ahead? It could be done slowly perhaps.

So that would be the only reason for me to take a punt but I just can't bring myself round to it unless sudden buying is apparent and I end up Panic buying? lol

I hope they don't suggest dropping to AIM either.

[le mass du pap] 04/8/2016 15:05

steady eddy, hope you've put all sharp objects out of reach, you sound like you're on the edge today, one depressing moan after another. Maybe they bought i to enable synergies with Apple, ipad, iphone, ipod, itunes, inewspaper, lol. £1bln bid coming, Apple can afford it ;o))

[stdyeddy] 04/8/2016 15:00

Yep, that's why I enjoy losing it without any outside help.

One place jpr has excelled at today - we're almost at the top of the losers board. Just four unknown basket-cases to beat.

As always, the clues to the latest price-drop were in plain site - major shareholders selling out before the results. We managed to convince ourselves that a bid was around the corner.

Tindle evidently knows what's going on and is happy to pick off the pieces of jpr which he likes, without picking up the debt. If he won't bid for the whole company but will pay £4.25m for a tiny corner of it, then I don't see why anyone else would bid for the entire debt mountain.

Ashley Highfield may have displayed confidence in paying £24m for the i but I reckon it's misplaced confidence and shows a characteristic disregard for the investment community which jpr needs to support it. The debt should be worked down far more aggressively instead.

I'll watch how things go for the next week or two but unless there's a change in attitude and communication, I'll be getting out shortly.

[mrx9000] 04/8/2016 14:54

The press gazzette states that their is a recruitment freeze at newsquest

[eastbourne1982] 04/8/2016 14:51

Are the figures on this page correct ??

i.e. two of the top dogs at JPR are on a combined salary of nearly 3 million pounds.

[eastbourne1982] 04/8/2016 14:31

It's funny how broker comments very rarely address share price movements since their previous assessments, for example JPR was over £1 a year ago and 40p plus in May, today the price is under 12p, a simplistic approach would be that the market anticipated a lot of this, the question is whether the price should have dropped 70% since May.

At the end of the day if you gave your money to most brokers to invest there would probably be very little of it left after a few years.

[henchard] 04/8/2016 13:14

Broker comments from ftalphaville markets live:

Numis
"Johnston Press has reported H1 results that have come in a little below our estimates at every level. Outlook comments acknowledge the uncertainty faced post Brexit. Our key issue at Johnston remains debt which has risen to £209m representing almost 4x our annualised EBITDA. This material debt pile, relative to cashflows, in combination with the declining and uncertain trading environment place a significant question mark on the equity value in the business. We place our target, recommendation and forecasts under review ahead of the 9am meeting today.
A tough H1. Revenues £114m (NSe £118m), adjusted operating profit £22m (NSe £24m), adjusted EPS 9.3p (NSe 9.7p) and net debt £209m NSe (£207.5m). The pension deficit has reduced to £23.2m, one small positive.
Classified particularly tough. Revenue trends in the half were disappointing, with digital (ex classified) up just 1.6% of particular note. Print advertising ex classified was down 10.3%. Classified and other advertising down 28.2% in the period. In terms of quarterly trends, whilst it is marginally encouraging to see a little improvement overall from Q1 to Q2 it is worth noting that classified deteriorated from -25.4% to -31.2%.
Outlook uncertain. Outlook comments acknowledge post Brexit uncertainty. In light of this added uncertainty the company is focussed on revenue and cost measures to maintain margins and minimise the impact of the difficult trading environment.
Remain a potential seller of assets. Having announced the intention to sell the Isle of Man operations for £4.25m the Group again confirms that it is actively exploring opportunities for the disposal of further assets.
High level of debt remains a significant issue. All in results are a little low to our estimates, and given increased uncertainty and advertising run rates we expect to cut estimates reasonably sharply in both 2016E and 2017E. The material debt pile remains our key issue at Johnston, in combination with the very tough trading backdrop this places a significant question mark on the equity value in the business."

Peel Hunt
"JPR’s H1 results are said to be below Board expectations, and
paint a depressing picture. Revenue, £113.9m (-10% yoy);
EBITDA, £25.5m (-13% yoy); Statutory loss, £211.4m; net
debt, £209.4m; net assets, £112m; £3m operating cash flow (vs
£25m, H1 2015). Statements still prepared on a going concern
basis. Outlook mixed, with classifieds described as ‘challenged217;.
No new news on asset disposals. Scope for downgrades pending
further company contact. Target price under review. As it
stands, equity is 6% of the EV and, hence, option value only. We
anticipate weakness in the JPR bonds too on deteriorating credit
metrics. As JPR is a re-fi story, this is clearly a concern."

[simonparker5] 04/8/2016 13:10

Call me stupid but I have just picked up another 50K. Although we have seen another drop in the price it is on little volume which indicates the II's are not selling at these levels. One whiff of bid or interested party news and these could stage the recovery of 2016!

[stdyeddy] 04/8/2016 13:10

I reckon the immediate acid test is whether they believe in themselves as a business. Let's see if anyone on their board picks up shares. If the directors think that their business isn't worth buying then I'll have to agree with them.

[eastbourne1982] 04/8/2016 13:01

The scenario here is now pretty simple:

The market thinks JPR has no future and will go bust in the end, as a recent investor I'm not convinced it will so whilst I consider it possible I could lose my whole investment I also consider it possible I could make a 100% - 500% return on my investment.

It's all about appetite for risk now.

[dazzaa] 04/8/2016 12:00

Remember with the Scotsman they do not own the building not like the IOM sale.

Good idea to bombard the Investor relation dept as between us regularly posting here we must hold 10% of the company, so concerted action is one way to let our thoughts known.

As said before no major shareholder will be willing to sell at these prices or need to, if to justify a takeover would need substantially more than current price so again I say buy! as always tell me the logical reasons not to.

[mrx9000] 04/8/2016 11:48

[e-mail]

[eastbourne1982] 04/8/2016 11:38

mrx9000,

What is his email address ??

Thanks.

[mrx9000] 04/8/2016 11:34

Eastbourne: I emailed the CEO this week with exactly that idea of a share buyback, potentially utilising the cash they have not got yet from isle of man papers. I had no reply this time.

[mrx9000] 04/8/2016 11:20

Eastbourne: An interesting question in regard what the scotsman would be worth. The Scotsman asset I assume would not be up for sale, however if an interested party put enough on the table JP would probably sell it.

I would assume an interested party with the Scotsman would be Newsquest/Gannett as it has already got a presence in Scotland and did some acquisitions last year I believe in Scotland.

However Newsquest do have the option of buying the lot and in doing so I assume will become bigger than TNI. It would certainly fit into the current strategy of Gannett.

In fact looking at the geographical areas of Newsquest here

it would open up new areas that are next door to their existing operations, such as Norfolk, Yorkshire, Northamptonshire etc, etc.

[stdyeddy] 04/8/2016 11:08

I'm a bit puzzled by Tindle - why's he paying £4.5m for three or four tiny IoM papers when he could buy the whole company for say £20m and then sell off the parts that don't fit with his empire? Is it the debt? Does he think it can't be financed and paid off with asset sales?

And as for newsquest mrsx - there's a UK company getting bought every day by foreign companies due to sterling's decline, but no sign of newsquest moving on jpr. What are they waiting for?

[mrx9000] 04/8/2016 10:44

I think I am right in saying the cash from the isle of man newspapers is not accounted for in the figures as deal is nearing completion.

Further announcements to come in regard divestments, so we'll see what happens there.

If this near £20m in interest payments a year were to be eliminated it would be a nice niche business going forward and someone surely has to see the potential.

Potentials takeover candidates are:-

Tindle Newspapers - I think it would be to big for Tindle to take on.
Trinity Mirror - I think monopolies and mergers would not allow it but never know.
Newsquest/Gannett - The most likely in my view.
The malaysian billionaire - Unlikely, but you never know, he could eliminate bonds and have a payback from his initial investment over a fairly short period.
Wildcard - An outsider that have not thought of.