Jlen Environmental Assets Share Discussion Threads

[spectoacc] 28/1/2020 15:39

Agree on premia, have never done well buying a Trust on one.

Others would argue the cashflows are what matters.

In renewables' case, also the ROCs.

I do not see power prices trending downwards for the next 30 years, irrespective of micro generation and panel efficiencies.

[jonwig] 28/1/2020 15:37

The broker note is pointing out something really simple: existing NAV premiums are possibly too high. My own view:

1) The green lobby is in the ascendant: finance for renewables projects will be cheap, for fossils, expensive or absent. That's irrespective of personal beliefs in MMCC.
But ...

2) Power prices are controlled by the CFD scheme, which will almost certainly trend downwards as renewables become more efficient (a new generation of solar panels can capture twice the energy when developed).

The point is not "sell JLEN", but "watch the premium". In fact, they are relatively upbeat on JLEN:

As a result, we take a very cautious view given the risks,’ said Brown, though he retained an ‘overweight217; recommendation on JLEN Environmental Assets which he said ‘has by far the lowest exposure to power price movements’.

[spectoacc] 28/1/2020 15:10

@hindsight - Hinkley is beyond farce, tho I don't agree with today's dodgy dossier broker note. Electricity prices are highly unlikely to tank whilst the govnt is pushing us away from petrol/diesel, closing coal-fired and gas-fired, failing to build new nuclear, and no (desperately needed) new gas-fired.

[weatherman] 28/1/2020 14:53

That is one thing that I worried about when considering investing in JLEN and GRID. How do they and others factor in depreciation of asset while paying out 6% yield and plan for 6% annual growth? Is it a sustainable economic model, and is an invesment good here when trading above NAV?

[hindsight] 28/1/2020 14:47

Means Hinkley point subsidy will be enormous as guaranteed about £92.50 + inflation

[spectoacc] 28/1/2020 14:36

"Brown’s comments were in response to BNEF which last week cut its UK baseload electricity price forecasts to show a 4% real annual decline to £19/MWh in 2040, slipping further to £15/MWh by 2050.

Brown said the new forecasts were the ‘most bearish’ he had seen and were significantly lower than as recently as October when he forecast a 19% drop in NAVs.
The analyst said BNEF’s ‘outlook contrasts starkly with the forecasts used by the renewable energy infrastructure companies which we estimate is for real growth of 0.6% pa for the 20 years to 2040 to an average of around £52/MWh.’"


Basically, a big d/g to all the renewables sector, seemingly based on a distinctly dubious guesstimate of future electricity prices.

[weatherman] 28/1/2020 14:20

Care to elaborate - I can't access the link.

[jonwig] 28/1/2020 12:46

no, this research:

[twistednik] 28/1/2020 12:31

Dropping again ...is it Coronavirus related ?

[spectoacc] 11/12/2019 15:47

I seem to be the only one expecting a hung Parliament, so doubt it.

[twistednik] 11/12/2019 15:41

Anyone know what's caused the recent drop ? Election fears ?

[the deacon] 07/10/2019 09:32

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/oct/07/uk-universities-in-landmark-deal-to-buy-energy-direct-from-windfarms

[the deacon] 12/9/2019 11:12

Good interview covering JLEN and renewables in general https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/investingshow/article-7428305/How-profit-investing-green-energy-reducing-waste.html

[jonwig] 09/9/2019 19:12

JLEN and battery storage, research report:

[11_percent] 30/8/2019 19:50

Hi guys, I am after some info.

Is it the case that you can no longer get planning permission for onshore wind turbines in Scotland.

Cheers.

[spectoacc] 30/8/2019 17:00

;) Mildly regretting having sold out long ago.

Tho I've yet to see a "long term" premium hold on an IT - LTI's day is coming...

I remember buying the infrastructure ITs when they fell close to par, from c.20%+ premiums - took a lot of averaging & a bid for HICL to get out!

[jonwig] 30/8/2019 14:32

Spec you rogue ... in the infrastructure funds area sales were generally made at a premium to "NAV", suggesting the official NAV might be understated.

More seriously, though, so-called "safe" assets are all trading at a premium. If you don't like such as JLEN or TRIG, you can always buy German bonds.

[spectoacc] 30/8/2019 13:49

"JLEN Mental Premium to NAV Limited". ;)

[phillkay] 30/8/2019 13:18

Thanks jonwig

[jonwig] 29/8/2019 07:04

Sorry, can't change the header title to the new name: "JLEN Environmental Assets Group Limited".

[jonwig] 14/8/2019 06:29

@ phillkay. It's the way they work: no problem.

Borrow money, buy some assets, do a share issue, repay borrowing. Operations cover dividends. This is the latest summary (£m):

Cash from ops ...... 36
Share issue ....... 103
Assets acquired ... (77)
Repay temp. loan .. (32)
Divis paid ........ (29)

Net change of (0.4).

[phillkay] 14/8/2019 00:23

I'm interested in JLEN, very strong metrics, but I'm concerned about the large negative figure for "price to cashflow per share", what are your thoughts? Thanks, Phill

[a0002577] 03/8/2019 14:17

There is no doubt that JLEN, UKW, TRIG, BSIF, FSFL and NESF are quality stocks but like all shares they go on their annual share price walkabout. They had all become a little toppy and are adjasting downwards to a fairer price. Not quite time to buy back in.

[asmodeus] 02/8/2019 20:20

Many thanks, Jonwig. But to my mind, renewables must be a "no-brainer" ( and I don't mean that only those with no brains will buy them), but we hear unceasing propaganda and haranguing about "saving the planet" etc. that surely trusts investing in renewables must have an obvious future? So I can unferstand not buying them at a premium - but to sell them seems going to far. But I have to say "questor's" income prtfolio has not been a brilliant performer. (-0.5% since 2016/7, it says today)...

[jonwig] 02/8/2019 11:32

asmodeus - yes, I read that. I thought Labour was aiming mostly at water and PPI, but it does seem to be a bit fuzzy at times! Commenting on politics it's rarely possible to be totally objective, but I suspect Labour's hard-left socialism won't be a practical problem for investors any time soon!

Maybe Questor is right that premiums are a bit heavy, though.