Jd Sports Fashion Share Discussion Threads

[tony5000] 13/8/2008 07:58

I believe that the recent downturn in price has been over done. Company reported recently that like for like sales to the end of May were over 4% positive and gross margins maintained - i.e. 4 months into the 1st half year. June was supposedly o/k for retailers, whilst July a bit poorer. Presume JD at least performed in line or better than the pack in June so July would have to have been disastrous to warrant this mark down - unlikely. May be just a tree shake - historic support at 275p - if this holds could now be on the up.

[tony5000] 24/6/2008 11:04

In addition to positive House Broker comments, I believe that JD still has significant growth potential and specifically in relation to the recent acquisition of the Bank fashion store chain. Assuming they can get the trading formula and offer right in Bank this chain may have the potential to grow from its current 49 stores to over 200 to 250 stores over the next 5 years. IMHO DYOR.

[tony5000] 19/6/2008 09:00

On April 15 the group reported like-for-like sales growth of 4.2 percent for the 10 weeks to April 12. John David said on Monday 9th June that - after a further seven weeks of trading to May 31 - cumulative like-for-like sales growth has "marginally improved" in both the Sports and Fashion Fascias. In reaction, Investec Securities left a 'buy' rating on the stock, noting that John David Group continues to outperform the vast majority of its retail peers in terms of like-for-like sales growth. It notes that despite facing tougher comparatives, the group has made further progress from the impressive like-for-like growth reported in April. Leaving a 500 pence price target on the stock.

The broker said it thinks the group's tradition of under-promising and over-delivering is a positive attribute in its view.

House broker Investec Securities is sticking with a year to Jan. 30 2009 underlying pretax profit forecast of 45.0 million pounds, up from 43.4 million pounds last time. It has a 'buy' recommendation, a target price of 500 pence and reckons the stock is "significantly undervalued". "Continued like-for-like growth in excess of 4 percent against high single digit comparatives clearly puts John David up in the retailing elite in our view," said the broker.

Looks pretty good to me - no debt and continuing on track in spite of difficult market conditions - IMHO DYOR

[tole] 09/6/2008 15:05

Picked up by the brokers...

'whilst gross margins have been maintained, further increases are proving to be
challenging to achieve'

A few forecast downgrades off the back of that IMS. I note altium scalped a few pence of their figures this morning - looking for 57p EPS 2009e now. And a reduced target of 456p

Still relatively cheap on PE of 6. I suppose if achieveable.

[strutt12] 21/4/2008 15:12

Too illiquid for me

[tony5000] 21/4/2008 15:11

Forecasts now upgraded for 2009, 10 & 11 to £45m, 47.25m and £50.39m respectively - EPS 65.63, 68.53 & 73.07 for the same years - PE'S of 5.4, 5.18 & 4.86.

Market cap. £171.3m.

Possibly only a matter of time before this share resumes some stellar performance in view of recent results and upgrades. Deserves a re-rating IMHO DYOR.

[cockneyrebel] 21/4/2008 11:04

Chart still moving positive - iff JJB are a bid target what are these with no debt and a tiny PE?

CR

[cockneyrebel] 17/4/2008 10:44

Completely agree. The chart is actually turning north if you have a look - reckon as this breaks out the punters will force it north. PE 5 and no debt as you say and earnings growing - that's pretty compelling imo.

CR

[tony5000] 16/4/2008 14:32

JD is on a low forward PE c5, has no debt and has a better forecast profit profile than JJB. Forecasts prior to announcements yesterday for JD and today for JJB were as follows:

JD - 36.5m, 43m & 45.5m for 08,09 & 10 respectively - market cap £172m.
- EPS - 51.10p, 61.48p & 66p respectively.
- PE - Current PE based on 07 - 10.68 - forecasts 6.96, 5.79 & 5.39 respectively.

JJB - 33.9m, 37.1m & 44.9m for 08, 09 & 10 respectively - market cap £272m.
- EPS - 10.04p, 11.05p & 13.23p respectively
- PE - Current PE based on 07 - 7.70 - forecasts 11.35, 10.31 & 8.61 respectively.

The market will maybe wake up to the low valuation soon with the prospects of a bid on the current low valuation always a possibility.

[tole] 16/4/2008 11:39

Looking at the two - The FY2009E PE of 11 at JJB compares to 6.0 at JD Group. And altium initiating JJB with a SELL today compared to their BUY stance at JD. from yesterday.

[cockneyrebel] 16/4/2008 10:15

JD slaughtering JJB. JD look like they are trading on a valuation way below JJB imo. Reckon they will get bought up before long after a few funds do a bit of due dili.

CR

[strutt12] 15/4/2008 11:30

I expect Mike to make a move before too much good news is out

[cockneyrebel] 15/4/2008 11:17

Cheers Tole - seems the buyers are waking up.

Chuff me, these were cracking results, PE 5 and personally I think once we get to May the summer weather has to be so much better than last years wash out and floods that it will be in the clothing retailers favour and we'll see a few clothing co surprise imo.

CR

[tole] 15/4/2008 10:21

New note out by altium today - expecting a small increase in earnings this year - currently have them on for 66p EPS but not sure if this is yet to be reviewed on todays figures - 528p target price

Numis downgrades prefers John David Group to JJB Sports

[cockneyrebel] 15/4/2008 09:57

No sellers tho, not to mote - a few small ones.

Mike Ashley's Sport's Direct acquired 10% of the co recently - at this rating he'll steal the company if he wants it - won't get a better chance than now imo.

CR

[strutt12] 15/4/2008 08:45

Didn't expect a fall in price

[cockneyrebel] 15/4/2008 08:18

57P eps - they'll do much more than the 62p forecast for this year with the like for like up 4% and the better margins by year end.

PE probably around 5 lol - 18% divi increase, no debt - buy retailers when everyone hates them imo!!!

CR

[little beaker] 15/4/2008 08:17

Didn't. The stock is too tightly held. I'm not interested in buying blocks of 1000 shares. Maybe you are, lol. More importantly, I don't want to hold a share that could become too illiquid if there's bad news...

By the way, the market makers would be acting illegally if they refused to offer stock. Hope this helps.

Results were inline, outlook cautious, no real surprises.

By the way, JD starting from a low dividend base - yielding less than the FTSE all share.

[strutt12] 15/4/2008 08:16

Little beaker

"I didn't buy any JD stock due to market illiquidity."

Didn't or couldn't because no one wants to sell

[cockneyrebel] 15/4/2008 07:57

Fab results - would have been amiss not to have a note of caution but like for like up recently and improving margins.

Great performance imo.

CR

[little beaker] 15/4/2008 07:55

Will be interesting to see how:

"The Group's recent strong performance with regards to like for like sales and
gross margins means that further improvement in these areas is becoming more
challenging. Furthermore, despite recent and current performance, the current
economic climate and outlook dictates a note of prudence. The Board is therefore cautious about the extent of future growth in earnings."

Ties in with Investec's recent 2008 EPS estimate of 61.5p/share. Without having a conference call, it's hard to tell if this means they are expecting to miss this.

Not that I care, because I didn't buy any JD stock due to market illiquidity.

[tony5000] 15/4/2008 07:34

Great set of results and current trading good - as predicted.

[strutt12] 15/4/2008 07:33

Very strong set of results

[strutt12] 14/4/2008 12:47

results tommorrow and very quiet here!!

[cockneyrebel] 07/4/2008 18:56

Well the momentum is with them, they surprised their hose broker enough for a huge upgrade. I don't see sales falling, there's plenty of retailers doing ok like ALY, HFD, MTC, JQV, MUL.

JD. have like for like sales up 11% and margins improving - that's not the performace of a dire retailer on a PE of 5 imo.

CR