Jadestone Energy Share Discussion Threads

[sea7] 06/10/2023 08:51

No one would ever exercise a 50p warrant when the share price hits 50p, it is a pointless exercise and one that may create in instant paper loss due to the dilution effect of more share issuance.


Many holders of warrants like to flip them in cashless exercises and bank the difference. As we all know, for the cashless exercise to generate a significant profit through difference, the share price must be as far above the strike price as possible.

Unless the company begs the holders to exercise, so that they can get the cash in the company coffers, the holders of the 50p warrants will wait until the share price is high enough to book a decent gain, without laying out a penny up front.

[winnet] 06/10/2023 07:40

Point being made in the post was that Blakeley should go anyway as the deal itself was terrible ...

[winnet] 06/10/2023 07:33

Fully realise guys, not my first rodeo. Not well explained... apologies... All I mean is there's more going on than simply a binary buy sell price on these warrants if the holders want shares but don't exercise. A bit irrelevant really.

[wooster4] 06/10/2023 07:27

Winnet - that makes no sense whatsoever. Why would they buy additional shares in the market. You realise until exercised, warrants are entirely risk free

[nigelpm] 06/10/2023 07:19

Why would they buy shares at 30p and also then at 50p? You realise a warrant is simply the opportunity to buy at a certain price within a timeframe?

[winnet] 06/10/2023 07:08

Who knows what the warrant holders will do, but if the were sensible the would buy more shares sub 50 and then simply exercise at 50. Bang instant profit and the still hold shares they can sell at 60p plus.

I've seen it all before with warrant overhangs.

Don't know much about axl as not a holder, but different houses play it differently...

[fardels bear] 06/10/2023 06:09

I don't think many 50p warrant holders will buy when the share price hits 50p. Why would they take the risk? Look at AXL: loads of 9p warrant holders and they seem to buy when the price hits 19p.

[nigelpm] 05/10/2023 22:38

Exactly puzzler.. in full agreement

[puzzler2] 05/10/2023 22:28

The 50p warrants have no effect on holding back the share price The warrants are presently under water, so a higher share price is in everyone's interest. Yes, some warrant holders may exercise at 50p and then sell higher, but any shareholder might sell higher too. It's a red herring. No more Montara issues, Akatara on track and some successful infill wells is all that matters.

[winnet] 05/10/2023 21:37

Look at some TA. It echos what I am saying...

Well done on the trading, but you are still 50% down. What does that tell you?

I'm not here to preach, but let's not forget we were at a quid last year and imo, heads should roll.

[nigelpm] 05/10/2023 21:36

Well 50p is a 66% return from here so not to be sniffed at. Not sure on my average now as did a lot of buying sub 25p and took some profits around 38p. Probably 45p ish.

[nigelpm] 05/10/2023 21:13

30 million at 50p when the share price is currently 30p ain't going to screw us. Issues on montara or other absolutely could.

[winnet] 05/10/2023 21:12

But its not Nigel, for the reasons I laid out. 30 million warrants will screw us. How Many of us invested at 40p plus. I would say almost all. Mark my words!

[nigelpm] 05/10/2023 20:17

That's all irrelevant. Simply a matter of confidence returning to the stock which will happen if akatara completes on time and budget and no more screws ups elsewhere.

[winnet] 05/10/2023 19:29

don't forget end of year 23 might signal the need to draw on Tyrus's standby facility. The trouble is no one is going to buy in quantity until those warrants are gone. There's no hope of 50p without some sort of restructuring. 30 million warrants is a fair chunk and the exercise price should have been set fair higher...

I hold zillions of these and have paper losses that I daren't tell the wife... but IMO this is going nowhere while Blakely is still in charge with his tomorrow-tomorrow narrative. The placing happened on his watch. If he was a manager in any other field, he'd be gone. The deal he did on the June placing shows he can't negotiate.

Yes, those that got in on the 2018 placing are just about okay but the rest of us, not so much. I regret the confidence I had based on management's prior track record, which was misplaced. Time for the Blakley to retire. Every dog has his day.

[spawny100] 05/10/2023 13:29

Hmm lots of sells looks like going back into the 20's somewhat unbelievably.

[11_percent] 01/10/2023 16:54

BRENT TA.

Saying its good.


DETAILED LEVEL ANALYSIS REPORT PER THE CLOSE OF Fri. Sep. 29, 2023: London IPE Brent Crude Futures closed today at 9220 and is trading up about 7.32% for the year from last year's settlement of 8591. Currently, this market has been rising for 6 months going into October suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level.


BROADER OVERVIEW

The historical perspective in the London IPE Brent Crude Futures included a rally from 2020 moving into a major high for 2022, the market has pulled back for the current year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2021 which signaled the rally would continue into 2022. However, the market has been unable to exceed that level intraday since then. This overall rally has been 2 years in the making.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in London IPE Brent Crude Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2001 and 1998 and 1994. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2022 and 2018 and 2000.


DAILY OVERVIEW

Focusing on our perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the London IPE Brent Crude Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 9163 and overhead resistance forming above at 9270. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.



WEEKLY OVERVIEW

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of September 25th at 9535, which was up 21 weeks from the low made back during the week of May 1st. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 9535 to 9041. Nevertheless, the market is still trading downward more toward support than resistance. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.

When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 9535 made 0 week ago. Still, this market is within our trading envelope which spans between 7951 and 9325. The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of September 25th reaching 9535 has exceeded the previous high of 8810 made back during the week of August 7th.

Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 5 weeks overall.

Weekly Indicating Ranges

Immediate Trend .......... neutral
Short-Term Momentum ...... bullish
Short-Term Trend ......... bullish
Intermediate Momentum .... bullish
Intermedia Trend ......... bullish
Long-Term Trend .......... bullish
Cyclical Strength ........ bullish
Broadest Trend ........... bullish


MONTHLY OVERVIEW

Interestingly, the London IPE Brent Crude Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 6 months since the low established back in March.

Monthly Indicating Ranges

Immediate Trend .......... bullish
Short-Term Momentum ...... bullish
Short-Term Trend ......... bullish
Intermediate Momentum .... bullish
Intermedia Trend ......... neutral
Long-Term Trend .......... bullish
Cyclical Strength ........ bullish
Broadest Trend ........... bullish


ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL

END OF MONTH

Today is the last trading day of the month.

END OF QUARTER

We have now reached the closing for this quarter. The projected overhead technical resistance stands at 10884. The projected technical support resides at 6623. The next Quarterly Minor Bullish Reversal stands at 8750 with the next Quarterly Major Bullish Reversal standing at 13965. The next Quarterly Minor Bearish Reversal resides at 2440 whereas the next Quarterly Major Bearish Reversal is to be found at 6110. Immediately, the market is somewhat bullish on our indicating range models. However, the monthly level remains moderately bullish for now and the weekly level is in a very bullish posture. We also have a Minor Monthly Bearish which is closer to the market right now. This resides at 6730 and therefore, even a month-end closing below this would signal a further retest of support is likely.

Since the last trading day of this month and quarter happens to also be the end of a week, then we additionally have Weekly Reversals coming into play as well. The next Weekly Minor Bullish Reversal is standing at 9540while the Major Weekly Bullish stands at 11490. However, the next Weekly Minor Bearish Reversal is to be found at 8010 while the next Major Weekly Bearish Reversal is located at 8805.

Therefore, when we put this all together, the various timing levels require our focus on the following Bearish Reversals for the close of this quarter. The numbers to watch are: 8805, 8230, and 6110.

TIMING OVERVIEW

Our timing models warn that a turning point is due to come November in London IPE Brent Crude Futures so we should remain focused. The last cyclical event was a high established back during September. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a low. However, the market has been neutral for right now, so caution is advisable. Watch the short-term trading levels for a hint of the next directional move into that target time frame. Last month produced a high at 9535 but closed on the positive side during September. We need to exceed that level during September to suggest a continued advance is likely. Support technically lies now at 8674 and a breach of that level will warn of a retest of key support down at 7158 becomes possible.

BROADER YEARLY OVERVIEW

From a cyclical perspective, the broader view which provides a map to the future is most interesting. Our next yearly target in time for a turning point is 2023 so caution is obviously suggested during this year since we have made a new low. Immediately, we are trading below last year's settlement of 8591 yet above our Dynamic Pivot Point during this year residing at 0. This implies that the market is still in a bearish to neutral position as we look into the next turning point target. Thereafter, we could see a trend reversal into the following target due in 2024. Keep in mind that last year made a high so penetrating last year's low implies further weakness is still possible. The next Yearly Bullish Reversal stands at 11580. The next Yearly Bearish Reversal resides at 6770.

REVERSAL SYSTEM OVERVIEW

Looking at our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 9540 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 8805. This provides a 7.70% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 9700 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 8230. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 15%. Immediately, we closed the last session trading at the 9220, which is below this level on a daily closing basis at this moment. We need to close above this on a weekly basis to signal that a rally is unfolding. Right now, the market is trading some 3.35% beneath that level.

[11_percent] 01/10/2023 16:52

Amrita Sen, knows what she is talking about.


Interview on Bloomberg, her interview starts at 1hr 53, the bit about a future supply shock from 2026 to 2029 at 1hr 56 minutes 40 seconds

[fardels bear] 01/10/2023 14:37

We don't really have so much faith in ta on a share with current production over 17000bopd and at a premium to the Brent price of around 95 bucks. Even though half is currently hedged.

[croasdalelfc] 01/10/2023 11:32

Beyond the gloom and doom ....... MalaysiaOn 15 August 2023, the Naga-2 rig was taken on contract for the East Belumut field drilling campaign on the PM329 PSC. Drilling operations on the first of the four wells has commenced. The four wells are expected to deliver incremental gross peak oil production of 2-2,500 bbls/d with a projected IRR of c.90%.That IRR must be well into triple digits given the ahead of expectations first well and $90 Brent plus $3/4 premiums . I wonder what assumptions the projected IRR was .... Incremental barrels and Brent pricing

[11_percent] 01/10/2023 10:26

Sp going down......we have a 3 bar down trend.




free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[fardels bear] 29/9/2023 11:59

You must have better bloody eyesight than I have, then.

[badger60] 28/9/2023 11:25

The share price is gradually nudging its way up. The large lumps sold yesterday haven't been a problem to absorb. I'm still surprised at the amount that was sold, unless it's someone going short?

[thedudie] 28/9/2023 11:22

Anyone know what price we receive for the Sinphohorm Gas. Production is a bit over 1500 boepd but can't see what price we get for that?