Itv Share Discussion Threads

[stansmith1] 12/5/2024 21:04

still nothing...

[1dirtysteve] 12/5/2024 20:24

Chart looks like 95p in weeks or even days. From there who knows.

[stansmith1] 12/5/2024 20:17

Isn't this thread closed?Or the trolls just cant help themselves?There is a perfectly good pleb thread for them to complain about everything, but they need to come here.....

[cautios7] 12/5/2024 20:13

I have a good profit (15%+!) in ITV now so thinking of taking it off the table now we are past exdividend and trading update. Also don’t like the daily chart look straight up and also FTSE100 daily chart straight up (yeah I know it’s in FTSE250). Market and ITV feels a bit short term toppy to me.

loginname, 15% is a good profit, but imho I believe that this is a hold. It could well pull back a few pence and try again to get to 80p, but I think we could see 80p plus this week.

Just my opinion based on the low Mkt Cap, reasonable update, the buyback and the good news on the economy!

[cautios7] 12/5/2024 15:15

The sell in May is often good advice in better times when many shares are at highs.

Selling now when the opinion is that a lot of FTSE 250 companies including ITV are undervalued may be bad timing. If there is a return to the UK after years of being overlooked and cheap, selling now might be a bad idea!

As our friend Goldfinger has urged, stay long and buy, that's waht I have been doing.

[loginname] 12/5/2024 13:29

Hey Stag6 - re your sell in May post.
Lots of articles online about this - but based on personal experience I’ve often done worse in the quieter summer months but always done better over year end.

I have a good profit (15%+!) in ITV now so thinking of taking it off the table now we are past exdividend and trading update. Also don’t like the daily chart look straight up and also FTSE100 daily chart straight up (yeah I know it’s in FTSE250). Market and ITV feels a bit short term toppy to me.

Nothing wrong with a pullback that refreshes! And nothing wrong with taking a profit. The market is always there.

[huckers] 12/5/2024 12:35

Buybacks are a good use of money up until 100p in my opinion. ITV is not particularly indebted and the pension is now in good order.

[matthewr1] 12/5/2024 12:09

Mossy , don’t forget the earnings accretion when they cancel the treasury shares (what shares that have been bought back are called). To give a very rough example. Dividends are paid off earnings. Buyback and cancel 10% of the shares means you dividend goes up by circa 10% , ie 5.5p rather than 5p as is.

[stag6] 12/5/2024 11:53

Right on Netcurtains, definitely worth a lot more than the £3bn Mkt Cap!

[stag6] 12/5/2024 11:48

From Moneyweek!

Why you should not sell in May

Sell in May is a strategy commonly applied to avoid poor returns - but does the theory still stand strong in 2024 or is it simply a fool's game

It’s an old investment adage - sell in May and go away, don’t come back until St Leger’s Day’ - a well-known British horse race day, which takes place in September.

But does the ‘sell in May’ theory still hold true and would you be foolish to adapt it in 2024? As my colleague Max King pointed out last week, global equities are proving resilient in 2024.

It may look tempting as the FTSE hit another record high (7 May) - sunshine and FTSE highs - investors are having a jolly old time. But, could our luck run out?

But, while this theory may have had legs when trading was an in-person activity, does it still stand today? It certainly is no clever hack that lets you essentially time the market. And in a world where trading is now digital, does trading activity ever really get thinner in the summer?

What we do know is returns are still fairly strong over the summer and as any good investor will tell you, it is all about time in the market, not about timing the market. So, does it still make sense to sell in May?

Should you sell in May?
If we are looking simply at returns, you could argue that there are many factors that come into play, but if we look at the returns over 20 years during the months of May to end of September, then the numbers are not as grim as you may expect.

Numbers crunched by investment firm Hargreaves Lansdown, looking at returns for the FTSE All Share index for the last 20 years found that returns were negative over the five-month period (May to end of September) for just six of the 20 years.

According to Hargreaves Lansdown’s analysis, the average return for this five-month period was 1.05%, though there were some significant falls in a few of these periods, including two of more than 10%.

While timing the market is simply not possible, if you were to adapt the ‘sell in May’ strategy, you would have to be consistent - just as you would with any other investment strategy.

Sell in May - are returns better?
Some more number crunching from Hargreaves Lansdown: lets say I had £1,000 to invest - and I put it to work in the market 20 years ago. I consistently take it out at the end of April, repeating this process each year.

Taking the money out of the market in 2024, the £1,000 would now be worth £3,526 - and if I had left it invested, the £1,000 would now be worth £4,024.

Further analysis from investment firm Fidelity going back 37 years shows sell in May has worked in just 14 of the 37 years and failed in 23 years.

Sell in May works when we see prolonged market falls. It worked during the dot com bubble in 2001-2002 and 2007-2008 during the financial crisis. It has also worked in 2022 and 2023 when markets were volatile. But as the data shows, it fails more often that it works, so it's not always a winning strategy.

Like most investors, we do not know what the summer has in store for us, but we can see consistency and time in the market is what often pays off.

Will you sell in May?

[netcurtains] 12/5/2024 11:46

Basically the deal says Britbox is worth £500B
Britbox has 3.4 million subscribers.

ITVX has over 2.7 billion streams since launch and more than 40 million registered users.......

So in a sense, ITVx is potentially (but unlikely in short term) worth 10 times the value of Britbox....

Then there is the studio business...

mulling it all over, ITV might be worth about £2 or £3 a share to a buyer....
And to the market, without a buyer, I'd say slightly over £1.10 - perhaps £1.20.

If ITVx can be an overseas operator without the need of a VPN then it might get to about £2 a share (without a bid).

[stag6] 12/5/2024 11:40

Buybacks explained!..Buybacks seem to favour Director bonuses but who'd have thought that the BoD get perks!

[bigegoadvfn] 12/5/2024 11:35

“what happens to the buyback if ITV shares rise to 80p and 90p”

Nothing.

The buyback terms have no price based conditions.

[mossy11] 12/5/2024 11:14

matthewr or anyone, what happens to the buyback if ITV shares rise to 80p and 90p or become expensive. The share price was around 65p when they announced the buyback and they have risen 20% since then.

Just seems to many that ITV could have paid off debt with the Britbox funds avoiding paying interest. I have trouble seeing the Britbox funds are helping us long term holders when any new investor such as Silchester bought in at a share price in the 50p's.