Ithaca Energy Share Discussion Threads

[lucky punter] 24/4/2007 16:51

In the last year we have seen the sector average PE fall like a stone. It was somewhere in the 50's but now it is more like 15. TFC are the only like for like comparison factoring in ITH cash held at say 10 million. The current PE for TFC and the prospective PE for ITH are not to different. The share price will climb after the results but I would be surprised to see much sustained growth in the next six weeks.

[judge jury] 24/4/2007 16:46

If 2008F eps were 6p, the PE would be 16.7x, which for a company growing it's earnings at 30% pa, is pretty reasonable in my view. We're not there yet, but we might start to think about 6p a share after the results are published in a few weeks.

[lucky punter] 24/4/2007 16:42

WXHYXY???.
It was no secret that the shares were going to outperform their modest targets thats why I bought in at 56 last week and sold today at 64.75. So I can not understand why anyone would buy now and not last week.
When you say Historic I assume you mean a current PE of 14.5. That is after the announcement of year ends for now its still twice that. 14.5 is a prospective PE for the next few months and thats why I think it will drop back before results.
I am not negative on the company or the sector, far from it I am just sceptical about the attention span of the investors. This share is such a banker to rise and full with financial news that I suspect once this rise is spent the money will get out and return two weeks before results.
You talk about a current PE of 14.5 as being unheard of but TFC are 15.5 and MPS are 13.0 so it is something like the average at the moment. Certainly a move to £1 and a PE of 26+ would look very heady in the current climate.

[judge jury] 24/4/2007 14:15

We only have to wait 6 weeks or so before the results are published which I consider to be a short time and I fully expect excellent results and further upgrades for 2008 and beyond. It's also possible that ITH starts paying a dividend given the cash balance and decent profits. I think eps for 2008 might well be upgraded to 5-6p, which means the share price should move up towards 100p in the next few months. Certainly I am very comfortable holding on.

[wjccghcc] 24/4/2007 14:09

Mid 50's would put ITH on an historic PE of 14.5 after the upgrade to 3.8p. Given their business model is pretty much independent of the economic cycle, I'd say that's quite unlikely unless there is a major market selloff.

[lucky punter] 24/4/2007 13:59

JJ
I have sold my stake today at a nice short term profit but will be watching progress as the share price suffers from inactivity, boredom and lack of news. Its a long time until the figures are announced and I suspect I will be back in mid 50's shortly for a bit more profit through results time.
The company is an excellent mid to long play for the patient holders.
I note your post above which suggests 3.8p EPS. I think that is conservative but still an excellent result.
Best of luck.

[judge jury] 24/4/2007 10:38

I think management are deliberately keeping a low profile. They got punished by the market with the delays in the US and as mentioned before I think they are happier consistently beating expectations, rather than let everyone get too excited too early.

[wjccghcc] 24/4/2007 10:32

Perhaps Investec will spread the news a bit wider. Of course, with the UK now growing nicely, Navtrak disposed of, good cashflow and the international strategy beginning to take shape, it wouldn't surprise me to see them becoming a bid target. Of course, it would need to be an agreed bid so it depends on management's view but you can understand them beginning to get a little ticked off with the lack of market awareness given their recent substantial progress.

[hew] 24/4/2007 10:09

Pity the Statement is not getting out to all mainstream sources. It is not on Investegate (the NOMAD RNS is) and an ADVFN competitor ( ££££ am that is!) "cannot find" it although the heading appears. The LSE site news section is "closed for maintenance".

It is on iii and here.

I have let the Co. know.

EDIT: Problems rectified at 1030.

[lucky punter] 24/4/2007 09:55

Right thats me out until the next time, cleared a good chunk in the last week. See you all start of June for the next one. Good luck all.

[lucky punter] 24/4/2007 09:29

It will be interesting to see if it breaks out of the range. The company has made steady and predictable progress but it seems some need to see it in black and white.

[wjccghcc] 24/4/2007 08:59

Yup. Building a nice track record of outperforming expectations. PE for the current year is now 14.5 and that's before any upgrades. Given their operational gearing, recurring revenues and the growing international opportunities, looks like it's time for a rerating. Added a few first thing.

[judge jury] 24/4/2007 08:22

Agreed ... decent trading update as we expected. They seem to be quite understated, which I like. Means more and more upside surprises in my view

[lucky punter] 24/4/2007 07:05

As many anticipated an excellent update:

The Company has demonstrated substantial growth in this last year and expects to
report results ahead of current market expectations.

Through the combination of market leadership in the UK and considerable scope
for international growth, the Board is confident of reporting continued progress
in the future.

Yes. We all guessed that but how far ahead. I am still going with 4.0p EPS and 10 million cash. I assume we can expect the new adviser to come out with some new forecasts. Let me save them the trouble:

2007 4.0 EPS
2008 5.4 EPS
2009 6.8 EPS

[lucky punter] 21/4/2007 09:39

Fox
The company is doing extremely well and was given modest targets which are easily achieveable. I would like to see them open new markets to protect future growth although now they have a foot in the US and a strong new partnership in Australia so we should see growth there. The short and mid term look very nice in my opinion and that will make its way to the share price
In addition re reading the interims it appears that a dividend or some other use of funds which should now total nearly 9 million plus the proceeds of the recent disposal at 2 million will be announced at year end results. I would support a share buy back but these have not proved popular elsewhere so I suspect a divi payout maybe on the cards. 9 million is about 9p a share, so 3 or 4p is quite possible IMHO

[foxtradings] 21/4/2007 05:52

Lucky Punter - I hope your right. I bought in at 60 on a gut feel that they will improve and nudge higher in little steps.

[lucky punter] 20/4/2007 08:30

The expected growth between 2007 and 2008 is a 1.2 EPS. It will be highly significant the progress made towards next years target. I can see no reason why an EPS of 4.0 is not possible this year after 1.8 in the first half and a traditionally better performing 2nd half. 4.0 would give a PE of 15 signalling more rises throughout the year.

[lucky punter] 19/4/2007 22:14

ITIS will announce an update on trading for the year ending 31st March 2007
towards the end of April.

With expectation at 3.5 EPS and 1.8 achieved in the first six the annonucement should be that expectations will be exceeded, but by how much. The share price is looking rather conservative with the gearing inplace based around 12.5 million of mainly fixed costs

[lucky punter] 17/4/2007 12:09

Bought back in today after selling at 65 in Nov 06. I suspect the update at the end of this month will exceed the previous expectations and prompt a small rise through the top of the range at 66+p.
Good luck all holders

[lucky punter] 11/4/2007 09:42

ITIS have always given plenty of updates but as I recall they have all said something so I would expect this one to say something also.
The RNS itself is not a huge amount of money. I believe the AIM cost out at 125 pounds and other agencies are cheaper. A approved and edited announcement costs about 1000 pounds if you employ professional PR writers like Ingleton- Beer.

I do not currently hold but have in the past and will in the future. Good Luck.

[liarspoker] 11/4/2007 09:35

RNS only costs about 25 - 35 quid depending on the size ( from memory ).

[lucky punter] 11/4/2007 09:34

Judge
You say its standard procedure but in my experience of these small companies they generally only issue an announcement if there is something to announce, this is due to the LSE fees.

[lucky punter] 11/4/2007 09:32

As far as I was aware. Its resolved but will not pay out in the current and will be less profittable than originally thought.

[judge jury] 11/4/2007 09:31

It is standard corporate procedure to flag the company's year end trading update in advance. I expect the update to say that the company is trading in line with or slightly better than market expectations. If the company was trading well ahead or well below expectations, then they would have already informed the market.

They are obviously downplaying the Missouri situation, given that the market punished them last time (when expectations were ramped up prematurely). I still think it is good news in the long run and may produce short term upside surprises.