Itaconix Share Discussion Threads

[lefrene] 06/5/2021 10:16

Thanks dougerboy, a good reminder of the wide capacities of the tech.

[purchaseatthetop] 06/5/2021 08:12

Si C.....8p would be brilliant. But very very unlikely. Lets see. I think that 10p is the lowest possible as most PI's are fully aware of where ITX is going and are willing to wait.

[si c] 06/5/2021 07:03

So the price slide has started sooner than I thought it would. Give it 3 weeks or so of no news and there will be a great opportunity to buy a chunk back.

Price now below 8ma and MACD crossing. Around 8p looks a decent support level and a bit more realistic with current projections.

[dougerboy] 05/5/2021 20:35

A great reminder of the Itaconix technology from the founders, back in 2013. It’s been a journey, but now it’s happening, and the profitable growth part is only now just starting.
hxxps://www.bio.org/sites/default/files/legacy/bioorg/docs/itaconix%20@%20bio%20wcib%20june%2017%202013_john_shaw.pdf

[adamb1978] 05/5/2021 15:24

Hi Garth

Each to his own - need to plan your strategy and keep to it! As I said above, we all have different risk tolerances and personal financial positions so just need to own your own strategy, and take the credit or otherwise for its success.
For ITX, I'm planning to run for the long-term, or at least til the story changes. I've forgone a crazy amount of profit on BOO, which I first bought at 30p, and FDEV, which I bought at 300p by selling too early, so not planning to do the same here, or with MXCT, where I got in at 170p. My big weakness actually with my investing is not averaging up.

All the best,

Adam

[garth] 05/5/2021 12:22

Thanks for the replies Pat and Adam.

I agree with the exponential argument Pat. Along with the enviro-investing dimension it is why I am here. And Adam - I would view myself as a LTBH in general but the reality is that I do tend to top-slice and rotate/buy back a portion of holdings. Some move on and you don't get a lower top up - although with ORPH I averaged up quite a bit along the way.

Whichever way, we are in agreement about the long term prospects here.

Best wishes,

G.

[lefrene] 05/5/2021 12:12

AdamB1978, education can be costly in the AiM market. I've managed to badly burn my fingers three times, before I cottoned onto my mistakes. The warning signs were there but I doubted my own judgement and so stayed in far too long, a simple lack of discipline and too much listening to the opinions of others.

For early investors in ITX they will have had the classic experience of AiM, where the 'business' is more of a hopeful idea than an actual business, and perhaps swayed by knowing that Neil Woodford was a big holder. The ideas always take longer to bring to market than advertised, and they always burn a lot more money, and the original holders always get diluted, ITX is no exception.

The big difference here is the patents, the 'green' sector, and most importantly, we are learning they have already got into bed with global players. Thus they have cleared some very high barriers, and hopefully by now the cashflow has a surplus over running costs, a cashflow that one anticipates is going to grow exponentially in essential products. It's no longer just a clever idea, but a real business making money with exceptional global prospects. These don't come along very often, a bit like Amazon was 30 years ago.

[adamb1978] 05/5/2021 11:55

Hi Garth

Perhaps you might be right in the short-term, but personally I'm less concerned. Small-caps oscillate but as long as the long-term trend in financia/trading performance is up and to the right, then I'm good with it. I dont have the time to trade, and probably not the mentality, so if things get overvalued at any points but then pull-back, it doesnt bother me.

Therefore if it gets to 25p (or any price) and it appears overvalued but you're a long-term investor, you might be fine with it.

Adam

[adamb1978] 05/5/2021 11:51

Lefrene - yes, agree, however I try to filter out early things which have a whiff around them. I have a concentrated portfolio of small-caps so dont need to own dozens of things so not forced to own anything which have questions around their governance etc. As you say, there's been plenty of things over the year which have dubious management or where things come up such as director dealings at inappropriate times. If I see those, I get out.

Clearly you cant know everything, and there is a greater risk of unknown unknowns coming up, but that's where position sizing and other risk management techniques come in. On these, its not really possible for one person to guide another given we don't know each others positions.

With those qualifiers, I've found looking to take advantage of dips a useful strategy

[purchaseatthetop] 05/5/2021 11:44

garth....my calcs show H1 2021 revenue being over $4.3m (as compared to $2.2m H2 2020) and full year over $9.5m. That is profitable.

If H1 2021 comes in at my figure (I have explained the reason why before) and that will be around 19/7/21 then the doors will blow off. It means the company is growing not arithmetically, not geometrically but exponentially.

I genuinely believe the maths show that this is the case and if it is (which we will find out) then 25p is easily achievable. It means that ITX IP will be dominating the Green polymers market for decades to come with an addressable market of hundreds of billions.

OK...not certain, not even 80%, but a good chance.

[garth] 05/5/2021 11:36

Rule No 2 in investing: love the dips! love them so much you hurt. keep some cash ready and buy value. there is so much impatient money around that you know it will drop and then you know that later this year the share price will be 25p.

PAT,

I post here hardly ever - but hold having done my buying in Autumn 2019 and then again sub-1p (which was uncomfortable at the time). I trimmed some between 7p and 8p on the Jan spike because I felt things were looking fully priced in pre any new financials (and I needed to lock in some gains/wanted to commit some more funds to ORPH). I have to say that I have been surprised (happily) by the strength of the recent rise. I don't think there is much question about prospects, but by my quick calcs 25p this year would rate ITX north of circa £100m. Do you not think that it is a little premature on where they are today?

In pursuit of healthy debate...

Best wishes.

G.

[purchaseatthetop] 05/5/2021 11:35

lefrene.....100% agree. No point buying the dips with the lottery ticket get rich quick AIM looney shares (most of them....).

However, with ITX I think it is relatively safe. I am getting a suspicion that the radical drop this morning might have been order filling.

Whatever happens IMO 10.29p buy is banging good value and I did not expect to get it. Hit the bottom of the dip. Like winning at Tipping Point (I imagine).

[matt123d] 05/5/2021 11:25

Added a few at 10.4p

[lefrene] 05/5/2021 11:13

There is also the small matter though of thoroughly knowing and understanding the business. Buying the dips is fine when you absolutely know that the company is a solid real business, with solid genuine prospects. AiM has always been a crocodile infested swamp with numerous disingenuous actors, that look like the cat's whiskers, but in a blink turn out to be the Cheshire variety.

[adamb1978] 05/5/2021 11:08

"Rule No 2 in investing: love the dips!"

Indeed. In small-caps they really can be your friend. Personally once I've got to around a 'full' sized position, then I use limit orders to add more if the price drops say 10%, and with small-caps those opportunities often present themselves. In the event that they don't, its because the price has pushed on, which isn't a bad outcome either. Win/win in my view

[purchaseatthetop] 05/5/2021 10:55

lefrene...fully agree. I have been doing the same in ENET (bought at 45.7p and 47.5p yesterday and today), AGL bought at 110p and have just added in ITX.

Rule No 2 in investing: love the dips! love them so much you hurt. keep some cash ready and buy value. there is so much impatient money around that you know it will drop and then you know that later this year the share price will be 25p.

Rule number 1 in investing is read rule number 2.

Update: just added 24,297 at 10.29p. Lovely. I cannot face looking at my number of shares now. It is too large for my mind to deal with.

[lefrene] 05/5/2021 10:17

Another buying opportunity for you Patt! I guess if we have to wait 10 weeks for some news then the price here will drift back some more, as money goes looking for other things that look like a ride.

[purchaseatthetop] 05/5/2021 09:15

well I am suffering that drift already!!!!

[purchaseatthetop] 05/5/2021 06:00

quantas....IMO just ignore ITXXF. It is a tiny market (just 1,500 volume yesterday) and does not represent a true market.

[thordon] 04/5/2021 22:15

Patt thanks for your tip ; to add look at Bion who listed last year .
Probably the only chance to get in at the bottom now, in a nut shell a company that turns a waste product into electricity , with 8 plants set up with a target of up-to 500 sites in the country. Expansion into other country's is on the cards.
Why listed to sell to the hedge funds on capital raise , accelerating the generation sites.
Do your own research but its another green share pleased to own

[quantas01] 04/5/2021 21:33

I'm curious that ITXXF only showed a trading period between 12.30p. And 1.45pm EDT. Could anyone explain to me?

[thefartingcommie] 04/5/2021 19:05

New 52 Week High Today

Itaconix PLC ITXXF:OTCQB
RT Quote | Exchange | USD
Last | 1:42 PM EDT
$0.181 quote price arrow up+0.01 (+5.85%)

[purchaseatthetop] 04/5/2021 17:00

Si C....your analysis is probably spot on. However, I will continue my policy of holding and adding when the price dips. News may be some way off but also news may arrive tomorrow. If we got an RNS tomorrow stating some new contract agreement then the share price would fly and a good part of my holding would be gone.

So...I will suffer the drift, which may happen, but enjoy adding like I did last time when it drifted from 8.9p to 4.7p (before rising in the last 6 weeks to present levels).

Good luck in your strategy. It is fair enough.

[si c] 04/5/2021 16:41

From a technical point of view, the 8 day moving average has help up ITX since 22nd March - not even a singles test of 20ma.

RSI divergence last week, one reason I sold half with a view to chancing my arm at building a bigger position again lower.

MACD is also looking like it could cross. It's had a great and strong run, but with news potentially some way off, I can see it giving some back here.

[lefrene] 04/5/2021 12:08

Patt, I'm quite sure the company could borrow against a firm contract with a global company in order to build up inventory, it wouldn't need to sell yet more shares for working capital.

One does get the impression that demand for the company's products is growing like Topsy, and yet for whatever reasons the company seems reluctant to advertise it's progress. However we can now see the commercial skill coming through alongside the technical skills, so one has to trust that they have a plan, and that it will work in the best interests of all. It's going to be a long 10 weeks!