Itaconix Share Discussion Threads

[ohojim] 27/4/2021 10:18

Can't help it! If there is the remotest possibility of a rude interpretation, I'm there. Anyway, hopefully you opened the window.

[purchaseatthetop] 27/4/2021 10:15

ohojim.....tee hee.....dirty mind.

[lefrene] 27/4/2021 10:12

A trading update might make the sellers think again, this has so far to go, and an indication that it's roll out of products was picking up pace would do no harm at all to the value.

[ohojim] 27/4/2021 10:06

....Too much information m'Lord ;-)

[purchaseatthetop] 27/4/2021 09:52

signs of movement.....

[purchaseatthetop] 27/4/2021 08:59

morning andyview....

I got 14kish at 11p this morning. Don't like a day without adding when these prices. Next update and we are at 15p IMO. Latest date for that is around 19/7/21 for H1 2021 so not long to go whatever.
H1 2021 will IMO be over $3m (maybe $3.3m) as compared to $1.1m for H1 2020 and $2.2m for H2 2020 and the rocket will ignite because that is 2021 being profitable.

[andyview] 27/4/2021 08:50

Morning all, I couldn’t resist opening dialogue as it appears to be the quiet before the (continued) storm...

NT to buy at the mo

Gla

[l0ngterm] 26/4/2021 22:29

Traders know it's is about 17p a share, investors know if you add in palm olive being positive, then it's about 25. The trades in between do not matter.

[purchaseatthetop] 26/4/2021 19:51

23-Apr-21 10:58:21 11.55 250,000 Buy* 10.80 11.00 28.88k O
23-Apr-21 08:35:43 11.5651 205,171 Buy* 10.80 11.00 23.73k O
23-Apr-21 08:49:36 11.002 500,000 Buy* 10.80 11.00 55.01k O
23-Apr-21 12:39:39 11.31 200,000 Buy* 10.80 11.00 22.62k O
23-Apr-21 09:47:06 11.61 250,000 Buy* 10.80 11.00 29.03k O

Tasty array of last declared buys from Friday just appeared. Somebody buying quite a lot. Maybe a TR1 someday.

Good day of holding up from ITX. We seem to have established a new base of 10.5p. Two weeks ago we would have bit our own hands off for that.

Roll on the next news. Watch for the dips and buy when it gets near 10.5p IMO

Have fun all and I hope you joined me in the ITX holiday camp over on ENET.

[dandu69] 26/4/2021 10:02

correction.....just gone though for 23937 @ 10.4p. Have a good day.

[dandu69] 26/4/2021 09:59

I`m trying to get around 23000 on Halifax but no live quote....put a limit order in at 10.4p, no sign of it being fulfilled at the moment. Best wishes all.

[purchaseatthetop] 26/4/2021 09:48

andy...me too. another 20,000 at 10.69p. Good value.

[andyview] 26/4/2021 08:48

I've added a few more this morning....

gla

[elrico] 25/4/2021 19:51

smallcompanychampiona88.substack.com/
#ITX
twitter.com/LEMMINGINVESTOR

[purchaseatthetop] 25/4/2021 19:43

Business Update: there is talk of a business update. That would be lovely but now I do not expect one. Reason:

Q1 will be gangbusters as we know that the Palmolive powerpacs release in Feb 21 will have produced a really large boost to the Q1 revenue (we know they had $1.1m of finished good investors at 31/12/20 ready for this release).

Unless there is another major brand release for Q2 2021 (which I am pretty sure is not the case) then Q2 revenue despite organic growth of existing business, will be lower than Q1 2021.

JS will not IMO expose himself to having to report lower Q2 figures in July 21. That would show reducing progress,

I expect him now to wait and release really excellent H1 2021 figures and those figures alone. Psychology of growth.

Having said that we may get an RNS tomorrow morning but I doubt it. This is so you can see my logic.

[purchaseatthetop] 25/4/2021 18:14

Hydrus....just back from driving from Gerrards Cross to Sheffield and back to show my son the city as he might want to do Genetics at the Unit there. Lovely day for a family drive and lunch in the sunny city of Sheffield.

Gross margin is 37% is now but Operational Gearing is quite high on the GM for ITX. High Operational Gearing is high relative fixed costs of production so marginal extra production has a higher Gross Profit. I expect GM to rise to maybe 45% as they utilise a higher % of their capacity.

Doing the math on $8m at 40% BM = gross profit of $3.2m less maybe $2.9m of overhead. Their overheads are dropping as they have done a deal with International Chemicals to wholesale their product.

Fully agree thought that future revenue growth is the value driver for us. As Bruce Lee said in Enter the Dragon "do not look at the finger because if you look at the finger you will miss seeing the whole sky"...

Will be fun next week. Will we drift? Will we boom ahead? Frankly I have no idea at all. But I think I know we will be miles higher in 2022....

[hydrus] 25/4/2021 17:50

The profit figures are optimistic IMO. I said before that gross margin is 35% so with that in mind they probably won't make a profit with $8m revenue (taking into account central costs) and the future period calcs would be affected also. I think they key really is revenue growth as everything flows from that and if they continue with the explosive growth then the precise profit predictions are not particularly important anyway.

[dougerboy] 25/4/2021 17:05

I like the forecast numbers post patt, nice work. Maybe a bit high for me v. time (a question of when, not if) but then a few posts back (on LSE maybe) I was talking about 20p in 2022 which looks like getting blown out of the water!

It’s such a great share to be involved in (been here since 2018 - wished I’d loaded up more then, but not complaining). I found a bit of analysis on Nouryon which reads:

„ Leading Market Position: Nouryon maintains a leading position in a majority of its markets, supported by strong customer relationships and advanced research and development. Nouryon's focus on technological leadership and recurring revenue helps reduce cash flow volatility. However, while each business unit has a commodity chemical element, most of the production is specialty chemicals and products are often tailor-made for clients.
High Barriers to Entry: High barriers to entry are reflected in the specialised nature of the products, technological know-how requirement, proximity to clients, protected patents and high switching costs for clients. Consequently, Nouryon benefits from lower competition and pricing pressure than pure commodity chemicals companies. Specialty chemicals are typically less capital-intensive and benefits from innovations such as chemical islands that co-locate production facilities near clients. Profitability and cash flow generation tend to be more stable as a result.“

That’s a mirror to ITACONIX

[donaferentes] 25/4/2021 12:37

Love the numbers, patt, an thanks for your efforts. EV/Rev translates to EV/profit (sort of PE) of 45, 35 and 10 - quite acceptable for such a growth stock. Good founder-managersOwning a good slice of their own sharesDefinable product(s) with wide addressable marketNew paradigmOn the cusp of profitabilityGreat parameters for an investment. Reminds a me of my all times winner ASOS from 54p to £54 back in the day.

[dandu69] 25/4/2021 10:01

Thanks for the informative posts PATT, i`m just a novice investor and really appreciate more experienced persons posts on here. I`m also currently holding DNL and BP. Look forward to your posts going forward.

[purchaseatthetop] 25/4/2021 09:17

2350220.....I only get enthusiastic when it is special. I am glad you are making money from my recommendation. As I say, it costs me nothing and helps other people. In my book that is good.

The comment "never heard of them before" is exactly why the likes of ENET are such great value. They are below the radar but have developed the technology that the world now needs (but did not know it needed 4 years ago). Previous shareholders in companies like ENET, ITX, AGL have paid the price of BoD's whose ideas were ahead of their time. There is no value in having the product that the world needs in 4 years time. Timing is everything. These companies are next decade leviathans. Just a few shares in the right one and you plus your kids are set for life.

So...limited way is quite enough. Just add sensibly as you go. When I started investing 30 years ago I started with £50 in a share. It just slowly grows. A decade or two later the sums involved are staggering but the pleasure from a right call is the same whether £50 or £100,000 invested.

Have fun and I hope your faith in my view pay off for you.
PATT

[2350220] 25/4/2021 09:02

Ha ha, you're a Star ⭐⭐088;
Jumped into ENET because of your infectious enthusiasm.
Never heard of them before, but happy I'm in in my limited way 😊
All the best,
John

[2350220] 25/4/2021 08:33

Morning purchaseatthetop.
I've got a little favour to ask.
Any chance you could buy say, a couple of grands worth of Optibiotix please?
Because I need it to go up sometime soon before I, and all the other shareholders die of boredom!!
Shares do seem to have a habit of going bananas when you buy in 😊😊😊
John

[purchaseatthetop] 25/4/2021 07:23

Revenues: Profit EV/Rev EV
2021 $8m $0.5m
2022 $24m $7m
2023 $60m $17m 15* $900m
2024 $85m $29m 12* $1020m
2025 $120m $44m 10* $1200m

dougerboy....I am anticipating 90p by 2023 based on growth to 2025. This is based on Enterprise Value as a multiple of sales revenue. Revenues increasing by 300% 2022 and then slowing slightly to 250% 2023, then 40% 2024, 45% 2025 (might be conservative for 2024/5). Gross margin rising to 40% and overheads semi-variable to revenue.

EV/revenue of 10* based on Teslas average 2015-2019. I have excluded 2020 as that rose to 22*. Ev/Sales reduces as growth slows.

Interestingly the EV based on multiples of profit is not far off the EV/sales revenue multiple by 2023-5.

So....9 bagger from today by 2023. I would accept that very happily. Obviously this is complete IMO and based on wild estimates BUT the words of JS talking about "certainty of revenue growth" is a game changer. What CEO says those words without 99.99% confidence interval? My assumptions of revenue growth slowing might be conservative as well. Anyway...plenty of upside.