Itaconix Share Discussion Threads

[andyview] 26/4/2021 08:48

I've added a few more this morning....

gla

[elrico] 25/4/2021 19:51

smallcompanychampiona88.substack.com/
#ITX
twitter.com/LEMMINGINVESTOR

[purchaseatthetop] 25/4/2021 19:43

Business Update: there is talk of a business update. That would be lovely but now I do not expect one. Reason:

Q1 will be gangbusters as we know that the Palmolive powerpacs release in Feb 21 will have produced a really large boost to the Q1 revenue (we know they had $1.1m of finished good investors at 31/12/20 ready for this release).

Unless there is another major brand release for Q2 2021 (which I am pretty sure is not the case) then Q2 revenue despite organic growth of existing business, will be lower than Q1 2021.

JS will not IMO expose himself to having to report lower Q2 figures in July 21. That would show reducing progress,

I expect him now to wait and release really excellent H1 2021 figures and those figures alone. Psychology of growth.

Having said that we may get an RNS tomorrow morning but I doubt it. This is so you can see my logic.

[purchaseatthetop] 25/4/2021 18:14

Hydrus....just back from driving from Gerrards Cross to Sheffield and back to show my son the city as he might want to do Genetics at the Unit there. Lovely day for a family drive and lunch in the sunny city of Sheffield.

Gross margin is 37% is now but Operational Gearing is quite high on the GM for ITX. High Operational Gearing is high relative fixed costs of production so marginal extra production has a higher Gross Profit. I expect GM to rise to maybe 45% as they utilise a higher % of their capacity.

Doing the math on $8m at 40% BM = gross profit of $3.2m less maybe $2.9m of overhead. Their overheads are dropping as they have done a deal with International Chemicals to wholesale their product.

Fully agree thought that future revenue growth is the value driver for us. As Bruce Lee said in Enter the Dragon "do not look at the finger because if you look at the finger you will miss seeing the whole sky"...

Will be fun next week. Will we drift? Will we boom ahead? Frankly I have no idea at all. But I think I know we will be miles higher in 2022....

[hydrus] 25/4/2021 17:50

The profit figures are optimistic IMO. I said before that gross margin is 35% so with that in mind they probably won't make a profit with $8m revenue (taking into account central costs) and the future period calcs would be affected also. I think they key really is revenue growth as everything flows from that and if they continue with the explosive growth then the precise profit predictions are not particularly important anyway.

[dougerboy] 25/4/2021 17:05

I like the forecast numbers post patt, nice work. Maybe a bit high for me v. time (a question of when, not if) but then a few posts back (on LSE maybe) I was talking about 20p in 2022 which looks like getting blown out of the water!

It’s such a great share to be involved in (been here since 2018 - wished I’d loaded up more then, but not complaining). I found a bit of analysis on Nouryon which reads:

„ Leading Market Position: Nouryon maintains a leading position in a majority of its markets, supported by strong customer relationships and advanced research and development. Nouryon's focus on technological leadership and recurring revenue helps reduce cash flow volatility. However, while each business unit has a commodity chemical element, most of the production is specialty chemicals and products are often tailor-made for clients.
High Barriers to Entry: High barriers to entry are reflected in the specialised nature of the products, technological know-how requirement, proximity to clients, protected patents and high switching costs for clients. Consequently, Nouryon benefits from lower competition and pricing pressure than pure commodity chemicals companies. Specialty chemicals are typically less capital-intensive and benefits from innovations such as chemical islands that co-locate production facilities near clients. Profitability and cash flow generation tend to be more stable as a result.“

That’s a mirror to ITACONIX

[donaferentes] 25/4/2021 12:37

Love the numbers, patt, an thanks for your efforts. EV/Rev translates to EV/profit (sort of PE) of 45, 35 and 10 - quite acceptable for such a growth stock. Good founder-managersOwning a good slice of their own sharesDefinable product(s) with wide addressable marketNew paradigmOn the cusp of profitabilityGreat parameters for an investment. Reminds a me of my all times winner ASOS from 54p to £54 back in the day.

[dandu69] 25/4/2021 10:01

Thanks for the informative posts PATT, i`m just a novice investor and really appreciate more experienced persons posts on here. I`m also currently holding DNL and BP. Look forward to your posts going forward.

[purchaseatthetop] 25/4/2021 09:17

2350220.....I only get enthusiastic when it is special. I am glad you are making money from my recommendation. As I say, it costs me nothing and helps other people. In my book that is good.

The comment "never heard of them before" is exactly why the likes of ENET are such great value. They are below the radar but have developed the technology that the world now needs (but did not know it needed 4 years ago). Previous shareholders in companies like ENET, ITX, AGL have paid the price of BoD's whose ideas were ahead of their time. There is no value in having the product that the world needs in 4 years time. Timing is everything. These companies are next decade leviathans. Just a few shares in the right one and you plus your kids are set for life.

So...limited way is quite enough. Just add sensibly as you go. When I started investing 30 years ago I started with £50 in a share. It just slowly grows. A decade or two later the sums involved are staggering but the pleasure from a right call is the same whether £50 or £100,000 invested.

Have fun and I hope your faith in my view pay off for you.
PATT

[2350220] 25/4/2021 09:02

Ha ha, you're a Star ⭐⭐088;
Jumped into ENET because of your infectious enthusiasm.
Never heard of them before, but happy I'm in in my limited way 😊
All the best,
John

[2350220] 25/4/2021 08:33

Morning purchaseatthetop.
I've got a little favour to ask.
Any chance you could buy say, a couple of grands worth of Optibiotix please?
Because I need it to go up sometime soon before I, and all the other shareholders die of boredom!!
Shares do seem to have a habit of going bananas when you buy in 😊😊😊
John

[purchaseatthetop] 25/4/2021 07:23

Revenues: Profit EV/Rev EV
2021 $8m $0.5m
2022 $24m $7m
2023 $60m $17m 15* $900m
2024 $85m $29m 12* $1020m
2025 $120m $44m 10* $1200m

dougerboy....I am anticipating 90p by 2023 based on growth to 2025. This is based on Enterprise Value as a multiple of sales revenue. Revenues increasing by 300% 2022 and then slowing slightly to 250% 2023, then 40% 2024, 45% 2025 (might be conservative for 2024/5). Gross margin rising to 40% and overheads semi-variable to revenue.

EV/revenue of 10* based on Teslas average 2015-2019. I have excluded 2020 as that rose to 22*. Ev/Sales reduces as growth slows.

Interestingly the EV based on multiples of profit is not far off the EV/sales revenue multiple by 2023-5.

So....9 bagger from today by 2023. I would accept that very happily. Obviously this is complete IMO and based on wild estimates BUT the words of JS talking about "certainty of revenue growth" is a game changer. What CEO says those words without 99.99% confidence interval? My assumptions of revenue growth slowing might be conservative as well. Anyway...plenty of upside.

[dougerboy] 25/4/2021 03:58

antonagis - on the basis of what numbers precisely is the 40-50p projection?Please quantify. If it’s just hope, try and quantify that also. Thanks

[antonagis] 24/4/2021 23:00

Hopefully 40-50p by end of 2021.

[thefartingcommie] 24/4/2021 18:38

Title:
DECARBOXYLATION AND AMIDATION OF POLYITACONIC ACID POLYMERS....which means?tx
United States Patent Application 20200190235
Kind Code:
A1


Abstract:
The present invention is directed at the decarboxylation and amidation of polyitaconic acid polymers. The polymers formed have useful dispersion properties and are suitable for use in the prevention of scaling.

[purchaseatthetop] 24/4/2021 18:23

I made that point a week or so ago when I found the patents. The last patent (the one I listed in 5545) has been kept under wraps. It is an incredibly important business sector as it covers huge industrial and residential business value. My personal view is ITX have deliberately not advertised their success because they have already selected their partner for the new products and are busy getting ready for a major launch. Or I hope so!
Previously they have RNS'd their patents. Outstandingly different and knowing JS that means something is up.

[thordon] 24/4/2021 18:09

Even better news then, just wonder why this has not been a RNS

[purchaseatthetop] 24/4/2021 17:17

Thordon....I think you may have misunderstood the system there.

The ones you think are not granted yet are registrations of the application and then another is registered on that list more recently for the granting of the application.

For example; here are two:

Decarboxylation and amidation of polyitaconic acid polymers
Patent number: 10738139
Abstract: The present invention is directed at the decarboxylation and amidation of polyitaconic acid polymers. The polymers formed have useful dispersion properties and are suitable for use in the prevention of scaling.
Type: Grant
Filed: December 18, 2018
Date of Patent: August 11, 2020
Assignee: Itaconix Corporation
Inventors: Yvon Durant, Bo Jiang, Melanie Hughes, Timothy Mills


DECARBOXYLATION AND AMIDATION OF POLYITACONIC ACID POLYMERS
Publication number: 20200190235
Abstract: The present invention is directed at the decarboxylation and amidation of polyitaconic acid polymers. The polymers formed have useful dispersion properties and are suitable for use in the prevention of scaling.
Type: Application
Filed: December 18, 2018
Publication date: June 18, 2020
Inventors: Yvon DURANT, Bo JIANG, Melanie HUGHES, Timothy MILLS

As far as I can see all applications have been granted.

[thordon] 24/4/2021 11:17

Patient check from AJ



Thanks AJP08 , interestingly there are some patients not granted yet
Also John Shaw has a few under his belt , what is more important going all the way back is the relationship with the team who have been loyal with the company.
One thing is that its going to take time as not all the IP are in ITX name but from university and transferred over to ITX when IP Group first invested.
With the latest find XDP-820 which would transform transportation cost from liquid to solid form and the applications Mineral processing & transport , Personal care, Paints, inks & coatings .Concrete & cement , Wallboard , Detergents , Ceramics , Drilling muds , Agriculture.
Estimated market size £30 Billion , only one problem cost and the requirement for 100 plus ITX factory's , solution Licence product.
If anyone else whats to comment as this is news that's not been released and easy change ITX to a Billion pound company.

Shame we could not ask John Shaw in the last interview with investors

[geraldus] 24/4/2021 10:18

Great information on this board with most small investors sitting pretty.All this with very little coverage,as far as I know,from newspapers,tipsheets or even brokers.Gla.

[parob] 24/4/2021 07:35

Thanks, that was quick!So 96 products on that list and I'm sure JS said they were in over 100 now so there's more to find.It's the big brands like Colgate-Palmolive and Clorox that make the big difference on revenues but JS did say speciality brands in Europe have been doing well and perhaps the margins are better on those products.

[homebrewruss] 24/4/2021 07:29

Thanks Parob. All done - updated sheet is here:

[parob] 24/4/2021 07:04

Nine more products found by Grace83 over on the lse bb.These newly identified products are for brands that are already on the list. So an ITX ingredient can be found in two different Ecover products. Both Mr Bear and PL360 now use an ITX ingredient in five different products. Full list will be posted next weekend.Russell, could you add to the spreadsheet please?Ecover - Universal Washing powderhTTps://ecover.com.sg/products/universal-washing-powderPL360 - Dry Shampoo Powder for dogshTTps://www.pl360pet.com/product/dry-shampoo-powder-for-dogs/PL360 - Odor Neutralizing Carpet PowderhTTps://www.pl360pet.com/product/odor-neutralizing-carpet-powder/PL360 - Fabric + Room FreshenerhTTps://www.pl360pet.com/product/fabric-room-freshener/PL360 - Odor Neutralizing Cat Litter PowderhTTps://www.pl360pet.com/product/odor-neutralizing-cat-litter-powder/Mr Bear - Grooming Spray Matt HoldhTTps://www.mrbearfamily.com/products/grooming-spray-mattholdMr Bear - Pomade Matt ClayhTTps://www.mrbearfamily.com/products/pomade-matt-clayMr Bear - Beard Shaper WildernesshTTps://www.mrbearfamily.com/products/beard-shaper-wildernessMr Bear - Beard Shaper WoodlandhTTps://www.mrbearfamily.com/products/beard-shaper-woodland

[cancun tango] 23/4/2021 23:53

Looks like 16p on Monday ?