Ishr Bic 50 Discussion Threads

[tpaulbeaumont] 10/8/2012 09:25

Chinas $100Billion bet on africa (pfffft!)

[tpaulbeaumont] 24/7/2012 08:18

The emerging economies cannot blame all their woes on the rest of the world
Jul 21st 2012 | HONG KONG | from the print edition

[tpaulbeaumont] 09/7/2012 13:07

so in terms of a more balanced planet and ecosystem it looks like the Americas could do with producing less food, and asia and africa could do with with producing less people.

[tpaulbeaumont] 18/6/2012 09:28

Who's bigger?
Jun 14th 2012, 15:26 by The Economist online
More countries are saying that China is world's leading economic power

AMERICA has been the world's leading economic power since 1871. It has contributed some 30% on average to world GDP since 1960 and made up 22% of the cake in 2011 (at market exchange rates). China meanwhile, contributes just 10%, but has seen its share of world GDP rise meteorically, from just 1.8% in 1991. The perception in some countries that America is no longer the world's pre-eminent economy is therefore somewhat premature. As the chart shows, such perceptions vary enormously across the world according to a new poll carried out in 21 countries by the Pew Research Centre. There has been an increasing swing towards China; in 2008 just one country polled thought China more economically powerful than America, now 11 do. The residents of the two countries at the heart of the discussion seem to have a rather self-deprecating view of themselves: on balance, Americans believe China to be more economically powerful, whereas the Chinese think America is. Perceptions aside, on current trends, China will surpass America somewhere around 2018 according to our interactive chart.






Its interesting that its largely emerging markets that still (correctly) see the US as the leader, whereas the old world largely see China as the new leader. Looking at the old world countries, perhaps its something to do with the old worlds familiarity with the notion that empires do eventually crumble?

[tpaulbeaumont] 30/5/2012 10:15

If you believe in the China story BarCap have some obvious trades for you :)

[tpaulbeaumont] 01/2/2012 12:13

Emerging markets want in on the flash crashes too btls

[tpaulbeaumont] 13/1/2012 12:03

India's slowdown
The case for the defence
Why officials think investors are too bearish about India's economy
Jan 7th 2012 | DELHI | from the print edition

[tpaulbeaumont] 03/1/2012 10:49

January 2, 2012
Time to Short the Russian Market!
Filed under: Economics, Politics, Russia - The Professor @ 8:39 pm
Vladimir Putin declared that Russia is an island of stability. Really:

Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said Russia's economy is an "island of stability" amid the turbulence in the global markets and as he seeks another term as president.

"The world's economy hasn't calmed from turbulence," Putin said in a New Year message broadcast on state television. "In this sense Russia is notably an island of stability - in any case for now."

Gee. Let me think. When was the last time that the Russian government promoted the "island of stability" theme? Think. Think. Think.

Oh, I remember now! It was 2008, when the US and European financial crises were swelling and then cresting. Kudrin used the phrase in January, 2008, right when the major cracks were beginning to appear in US and European financial markets. Putin used the phrase at the Valdai event–in September, 2008. You know, the month of Fannie & Freddie, AIG, and Lehman.

We all know how that worked out. The "island of stability" turned into a latter-day Atlantis in 2008-2009, and went further underwater than any other major economy.

The reason for that was clear: Russia is a high beta economy, dependent on natural resource exports that are acutely sensitive to world economic activity. So if Europe or the US have problems, Russian problems will be worse.

[tpaulbeaumont] 15/12/2011 14:53

China's epic hangover begins

China's credit bubble has finally popped. The property market is swinging wildly from boom to bust, the cautionary exhibit of a BRIC's dream that is at last coming down to earth with a thud.

Chinese stocks are flashing warning signs. The Shanghai index has fallen 30pc since May. It is off 60pc from its peak in 2008, as much in real terms as Wall Street from 1929 to 1933.

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International business editor
10:20PM GMT 14 Dec 2011

[tpaulbeaumont] 15/12/2011 14:51

Economics focus
Puns and punditry
How the BRICs were baked
Dec 10th 2011 | from the print edition






^
rather optimistic imo

[ariane] 27/11/2011 20:09

source: forbes.com

Ten Years Later, BRIC Markets More Important Than Ever
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13 0 6 Without these four countries, global growth would be below 4%.

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How The West Was Lost
Kenneth Rapoza
Contributor
Investor Picks In The BRICs For November
Kenneth Rapoza
Contributor
Ten years ago, Goldman Sachs economist Jim O'Neill used the acronym BRIC to describe the big emerging markets of Brazil, Russia, India and China in a report called "Building Better Economic BRICs". A decade later and it has become clearer that the BRIC nations are the healthiest of the world's super economies. And if not for them, global growth wouldn't be what it is today.

Each one of the BRIC countries has their own set of unique problems, from China's fixed income investment strategy wearing thin, to Indian political corruption and poverty. But one thing they don't have is mounting debt rising above national GDP. While the political leadership in Russia and China may be more cohesive, if not autocratic, than that in the world's largest democracy - India - and even Brazil, political leaders in these countries have one thing in common at least. They have acted faster on monetary and fiscal policies than in the U.S. and Europe. The biggest political battles is the BRICs are over corruption charges, and where to invest oil wealth. Meanwhile, in the U.S. and Europe, the biggest political battle is how to bailout southern Europe, or about cutting government programs for ideological rather than economic principles. The BRICs are moving forward as the U.S. and Europe are in limbo.

Last week, O'Neill told "Modern Russia", a blog run by multinational communications firm Ketchum, that the big four have done better than he expected when he first wrote about them as a unit back in November 2001.

"The aggregate growth of the BRIC economies has been so much faster than I envisaged," he said. "In the most optimistic scenario, I imagined they could rise from around the 8% of global GDP they were to about 14% today. In fact, they are closer to 20%."

O'Neill also said that economists, like Paul Krugman, who think Russia should not be included in the BRICs are misunderstanding his original concept. Krugman said that Russia does not compare with the more diversified economies of Brazil, India and China due to its overdependence on energy resources to balance the federal budget and grow the economy. Krugman was not mentioned in the published interview.

However, "Russia scores more highly than India in terms of the growth environment score," said O'Neill. "I think many people who suggest that I drop the R in BRIC don't really understand the concept and look at these issues with a very narrow Western-centric mentality. Russia has 140 million people, more than any European nation, and if it continues to avoid a major crisis, and grow 3-4 percent for the next 20 years, its economy will be probably as big, if not bigger than Germany and the other European countries. So while Russia is never going to get to the size of China, and soon India will start to become much bigger, it can hold its own against many of the G7 countries."

[tpaulbeaumont] 26/11/2011 10:26

Lang's assessment that the regime is bankrupt was based on five conjectures.

Firstly, that the regime's debt sits at about 36 trillion yuan (US$5.68 trillion). This calculation is arrived at by adding up Chinese local government debt (between 16 trillion and 19.5 trillion yuan, or US$2.5 trillion and US$3 trillion), and the debt owed by state-owned enterprises (another 16 trillion, he said). But with interest of two trillion per year, he thinks things will unravel quickly.

Secondly, that the regime's officially published inflation rate of 6.2 percent is fabricated. The real inflation rate is 16 percent, according to Lang.

Thirdly, that there is serious excess capacity in the economy, and that private consumption is only 30 percent of economic activity. Lang said that beginning this July, the Purchasing Managers Index, a measure of the manufacturing industry, plunged to a new low of 50.7. This is an indication, in his view, that China's economy is in recession.

Fourthly, that the regime's officially published GDP of 9 percent is also fabricated. According to Lang's data, China's GDP has decreased 10 percent. He said that the bloated figures come from the dramatic increase in infrastructure construction, including real estate development, railways, and highways each year (accounting for up to 70 percent of GDP in 2010).

Fifthly, that taxes are too high. Last year, the taxes on Chinese businesses (including direct and indirect taxes) were at 70 percent of earnings. The individual tax rate sits at 51.6 percent, Lang said.

Once the "economic tsunami" starts, the regime will lose credibility and China will become the poorest country in the world, Lang said.

[tpaulbeaumont] 19/6/2011 03:39

China(Shanghai) broke the Jan low friday

[ariane] 13/4/2011 05:56

BRICS Statement: BRICS Countries Still Face Economic Overheating Issues
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The so-called BRICS countries still face economic overheating issues such as inflationary pressures and asset bubbles, partly due to the stimulus policies of developed economies, a joint statement from the countries cited Chinese Commerce Minister Chen Deming as saying Wednesday.

Trade ministers of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, who are meeting on China's southern island of Hainan ahead of a summit of the five countries' leaders on Thursday, also reiterated their collective support for Russia's bid to join the World Trade Organization this year, the statement quoted Chen as saying.

The summit, which is to include discussions on issues like global economic and financial challenges, is likely to yield positive rhetoric about cooperation among the five emerging economies, and possibly some type of call for reform of the international financial system.

The ministers also pledged to oppose all forms of trade protectionism, and to expand mutual trade and investment, Chen said.

-Rose Yu and Owen Fletcher contributed to this article, Dow Jones Newswires; 8610 8400 7702; [e-mail]