Ishr Bic 50 Discussion Threads

[ariane] 15/6/2009 06:30

BRIC Should Add Indonesia to Become BRIIC, Morgan Stanley Says
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By Arijit Ghosh

June 15 (Bloomberg) -- Indonesia's economic growth may accelerate to 7 percent from 2011, providing a case for its inclusion in the so-called BRIC economies along with Brazil, Russia, India and China, Morgan Stanley said.

A win for President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono in the July 8 elections as projected by polls may help attract investors. Political stability and buoyant domestic demand will help boost expansion in the $433 billion economy, Morgan Stanley said in a report dated June 12 which compares Indonesia with India.

Southeast Asia's largest economy may grow 60 percent in the next five years to $800 billion due to a stable administration, lower capital costs and a government plan to spend as much as $34 billion to build roads, ports and power plants by 2017, Morgan Stanley said. Inclusion in the BRIC nations may increase Indonesia's standing among developing countries as they seek more influence over global financial policies.

"What this means for the investor community is that they need to need to look at this asset class more seriously," Chetan Ahya, a Singapore-based economist at Morgan Stanley, said in an interview today. Political stability, improved government finances and "a natural advantage from demography and commodity resources are likely to unleash Indonesia's growth potential."

Indonesia may expand as much as 4 percent this year, making it the fastest-growing major economy in Southeast Asia, according to the International Monetary Fund. Morgan Stanley expects 3.7 percent growth this year.

Presidential Election

Yudhoyono may win an overall majority in next month's election, avoiding the need for a second round of voting in September, polls show. Yudhoyono's Democrat party won more than 25 percent of seats in parliamentary elections this year, becoming the only party to be able to nominate a presidential candidate without seeking outside support.

The 2009 parliamentary election results "suggest continued stability in this democratic political framework and is a critical factor in unleashing Indonesia's growth potential," Ahya said. "Coincidently, the India story has also recently been given a 'fillip' from the strong political mandate of the Congress-led coalition in the 2009 general elections."

Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's Congress party won the most seats in parliament since 1991 in results announced last month.

Leaders of the BRICs nations may use their first summit on June 16 to press the case that their 15 percent share of the world economy and 42 percent of global currency reserves should give them more influence over policies.

Developing countries say their votes in the IMF, founded at the end of World War II to promote global trade, don't reflect the shift in economic power. Brazil, the world's 10th-largest economy, has 1.38 percent of the IMF board's votes, less than the 2.09 percent for Belgium, an economy one-third the size.

The BRICs may overtake the combined $30.2 trillion gross domestic product of the Group of Seven nations by 2027, said Jim O'Neill, the London-based Goldman Sachs Group Inc. chief economist who coined the term for the four countries in a 2001 report. That is a decade sooner than he had forecast.

To contact the reporter on this story: Arijit Ghosh in Jakarta at [e-mail]

Last Updated: June 15, 2009 01:04 EDT

[trewsa] 05/1/2009 08:41

My trade was through BSL.

[maxwellman] 04/1/2009 18:44

issued by BGI not BSL

[trewsa] 04/1/2009 11:20

I lost 20% on IBGS at 1607 on 22nd December,despite bid/offer being 127 then and all day.I was charged 155 by Barclays.Was in a slight rush and only noticed at 1230 on Christmas Eve.Apparently marketmakers clock off early so the ones who are left try to fleece the gullible.Not sure why it happens all day on here though.Am having a good argument with the complaints dept of Barclays since these instruments are supposed to be as safe as a unit trust and they issue them.

[jeanal] 11/4/2008 17:57

Spread today for LBRZ is just 0.6%

Bid 1,882.50p
Offer 1,894.00p

I have an order in for BRIC with Selftrade's new monthly investment plan. I think monthly payments are the answer to this market. Also SPA ETF Markegrader 100 and Lyxor Non-Energy Commodities ETF.

[arf dysg] 22/2/2008 16:04

Do I read that correctly: bid 1725p and offer 1925p ? So you lose £2 on the spread instantly. That's more than 10% !!!!

[5benny] 18/2/2008 17:31

Just seen this and LSE:LBRZ tipped in Moneyweek, any comments anyone?

[maxwellman] 13/2/2008 21:58

anyone buying these in todays volatile markets?

[jak1] 03/10/2007 14:05

What bounce. The share price trades seem completely unrelated to the intra day graph...

[vishpatel] 03/10/2007 13:38

wow, what a 'bounce' :)

[trewsa] 28/9/2007 15:32

Look at the spikes during the day.A stop loss trap?

[spob] 27/9/2007 12:08

The Short View: Bubble in emerging markets?
By John Authers, Investment Editor

FT

Published: September 24 2007 20:03 | Last updated: September 24 2007 20:03

Is there a bubble in emerging markets? Since the Federal Reserve's discount rate cut last month, the sector's rebound has prompted understandable fears.

MSCI's emerging markets index has rebounded almost 25 per cent since then. As Merrill Lynch's Michael Hartnett said last week, this sounds like the emergency rate cuts of 1998, which caused a gush of liquidity towards US technology, and 1987, when the beneficiary was Japan. Those bubbles, of course, burst a few years later.

VIDEO
John Authers on valuations of the emerging markets
A look at valuations is more reassuring. The MSCI emerging markets index trades at 17 times earnings – slightly higher than the MSCI World index, which trades at 16.25.

These lines crossed earlier this summer. This decade's boom in emerging markets has been based on value, not just growth. Five years ago, the developed markets were trading at a multiple of 30 – double that of emerging markets.

Given concerns about growth in the US, a slightly higher earnings multiple does not look insane – although it certainly signals that the era of value in emerging markets is over.

China and India, however, dominate the flows of foreign money. Here the picture is different. MSCI shows India trading at a multiple of 22.9 and China at 48.8. This does look like a bubble. In both cases, their growth to date owes much to multiple expansion: India's doubling in three years; China's trebling in two years. For both, the growth story is compelling, but authorities are tightening monetary policy, not normally a good time for multiples to expand.

So there is not – yet – a generalised emerging markets bubble. There is growth in emerging markets, for those who do the necessary homework and take the necessary risks.

But there is no great bargain opportunity, either. And the way funds are piling in to the most popular markets suggests bubbles could easily form there.

[spob] 27/9/2007 12:07

The Short View: Bubble in emerging markets?
By John Authers, Investment Editor

FT

Published: September 24 2007 20:03 | Last updated: September 24 2007 20:03

Is there a bubble in emerging markets? Since the Federal Reserve's discount rate cut last month, the sector's rebound has prompted understandable fears.

MSCI's emerging markets index has rebounded almost 25 per cent since then. As Merrill Lynch's Michael Hartnett said last week, this sounds like the emergency rate cuts of 1998, which caused a gush of liquidity towards US technology, and 1987, when the beneficiary was Japan. Those bubbles, of course, burst a few years later.

VIDEO
John Authers on valuations of the emerging markets
A look at valuations is more reassuring. The MSCI emerging markets index trades at 17 times earnings – slightly higher than the MSCI World index, which trades at 16.25.

These lines crossed earlier this summer. This decade's boom in emerging markets has been based on value, not just growth. Five years ago, the developed markets were trading at a multiple of 30 – double that of emerging markets.

Given concerns about growth in the US, a slightly higher earnings multiple does not look insane – although it certainly signals that the era of value in emerging markets is over.

China and India, however, dominate the flows of foreign money. Here the picture is different. MSCI shows India trading at a multiple of 22.9 and China at 48.8. This does look like a bubble. In both cases, their growth to date owes much to multiple expansion: India's doubling in three years; China's trebling in two years. For both, the growth story is compelling, but authorities are tightening monetary policy, not normally a good time for multiples to expand.

So there is not – yet – a generalised emerging markets bubble. There is growth in emerging markets, for those who do the necessary homework and take the necessary risks.

But there is no great bargain opportunity, either. And the way funds are piling in to the most popular markets suggests bubbles could easily form there.

[bigtbigt] 16/8/2007 11:20

...indeed. And I did start averaging in at 1490, with an additional tranche today at 1350. These are 8% and 16% retracements from the peak, and will add one mre tranche if we get to 24% down, plus a final one at 32%. However, I doubt we'll get to that last one. I am, fairly certain, we'll bounce over next 3-6 months, to the 1500-1600 level, giving a 6-12% profit even on current investments.

[luckybob4] 09/8/2007 16:12

Looks like a good time to get in.

[pjw956] 05/8/2007 18:53

just watching for now...

[maxwellman] 03/8/2007 18:21

anyone trade ishare or is there a BB on here for them ?

[tpaulbeaumont] 23/10/2006 08:35

lol, just realised i put the countries in the wrong order in the header, instead its the BIRC thread lol

[blackstone] 10/9/2006 11:56

Hi tpb
I have put a few country charts on this thread, handy for finding big charts epic code

[tpaulbeaumont] 25/5/2006 07:32

lol, cheer sblackstone, hes lost his appetite for risk apparently???!
;)

strange how Shanghai rallied in the face off the big immediate declines elsewhere?