Iqe Share Discussion Threads

[galatea99] 24/1/2018 19:48

Great post from someone named Graham Ford on Stockopedia:

"The company cannot disclose much about its customers because of non-disclosure agreements. At the same time it operates in just one part (epitaxy for compound semi-conductor wafers) of a supply chain for products that serve a wide variety of markets with different growth rates in a highly technical field. As such it has almost no peers to compare against and yet many analysts and commentators use comparisons against so called peers as a justification for whether it is over or under-valued. Furthermore, it needs capex to expand capacity, because sales are growing (i.e. a good reason) so FCF is reduced for now and those that want to value the company on that metric are critical. Others want to value it on other historic numbers which bear little relation to what the numbers are going to be 18 months down the line, again something of a hiding to nothing as the past cannot predict the future here.

The involvement of the company in the supply chain for VCSELs for facial recognition etc. on the iPhone X has been good for the company but caused huge volatility in the share price. Many of those with limited understanding of the company are either over optimistic thinking this is going to be another ARM overnight and chase the share price up, while others are overly pessimistic either misunderstanding the growth prospects substantially or hanging on every internet rumour about the iPhone X as if these rumours were factual, accurate and substantive (which they are not).

Many make a big noise about shorters as if they have sage like powers. They have essentially the same information as the institutional investors who were already long holders or who bought in at the recent placing. So, who’s got better insight among those two groups? Impossible to say. But if you give credibility to the shorters why not also to long institutional investors?

This all adds up to a rollercoaster. Only actual numbers from the company at the next update/results issue will give any clarification and even then the overly optimistic may be disappointed by good results not being even better and more volatility may happen for some time.

Overall, if you believe the mid to longer term opportunities for this company (5G, internet of things, LiDAR for driver assistance, HAMR disk drives, face recognition, augmented reality etc) are excellent, as I do, then it should not be a problem to be bullish here despite the rollercoaster. But if you cannot stand the volatility or take the time to understand the company, or are nervous about highly rated tech companies then better to stay out until there are actual results to base an investment decision on or a few years down the track when the best growth in the share price has passed.

I’m holding on for the rollercoaster ride."

[bocase] 24/1/2018 19:21

Deny weeny,

Thank you for posting that. If it is roughly correct it is very useful info, particularly with regard to the average shorted price which is much higher than I expected. That implies that they are all nicely in profit and could close and make a decent return with no great need to try to push it lower. That is good news.

Where does it go tomorrow. My guess and I am probably wrong is that we go higher on the basis that they have, today, shaken out all the sellers prepared to sell at this level and probably would not have the success in precipitating the falls that they achieved today with the combination of dodgy news flow and nervous holders

Thanks again deny weeny. I can't imagine when you got the info but very useful

[toffeeman] 24/1/2018 19:10

EEnyweeny - how do you compute the average price of the current holding - rather useful!

[john09] 24/1/2018 19:04

So where is this one going tomorrow do we think? Quite smug about my £1.04 purchase today and ignoring all the doomsayers. I also nearly sold at £1.06 and then £1.09 but decided to switch the computer off because this may hit £1.15 today ;)

[ropey] 24/1/2018 18:48

It's not all dark and death for Apple. The brand will end the year on a high note with a total of three new iPhone X-inspired designs - a second generation 5.8-inch iPhone X, 6.5-inch iPhone X Plus and a "$650-750" 6.1-inch iPhone SE replacement fitted with Face ID. This is an extract from an article in an IT related press.

[thecrunk] 24/1/2018 18:20

Can I just say if you look whats actually going on with apple.

Their plan is (amongst other things) is to make a cheap mass market I Phone with 3D facing recognition (IQE products). This is really good as 3d sensing becomes truly mass market and not just for the more expensive phones.

hxxps://inews.co.uk/news/technology/analyst-apple-plotting-cheaper-6-1-inch-iphone-x-for-september/

[pbutterworth1] 24/1/2018 18:03

Thx Eenyweeny GL

[eenyweeny] 24/1/2018 17:54

Hi all.

I don't post much onto ADVFN these days but I do lurk big time.

I have an interest in IQE.

This may be of some use to some of you.
I have only used data from mid 2017 onwards as all previous shorts were conducted in 2013 - 2014 (not of relevance now). My data is not 100% accurate but it is close enough for my uses.

The charts show the number of shares being shorted by the main funds and the patterns of activity.
Don't forget there could well be many more short position out there, each of which is not large enough to require publishing.


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I am watching this share closley every day now, but still awaiting a clear and decisive buy signal on my charts. Not yet.

[onething] 24/1/2018 17:36

Strictly speaking a trade is a transaction, whether one has held or plans to hold the shares for 5 years or 5 minutes. What happened to the term 'speculator'. Far more descriptive.

[regasclockwork] 24/1/2018 17:36

prokartace24 Jan '18 - 16:05 - 11730 of 11745
0 1 1
"Traded in and out today with a net 8% return but not happy because I am an investor not a trader." -End-

That's interesting. I know of a bloke with a shed-load [make that multi-storey car park] of expensive cars who said almost the same thing. But in his case he left a day or two between sell and buyback and insisted that he was not a trader. Whether he still holds shares in IQE we will never know. Lol!

[sailastra] 24/1/2018 17:18

Surely the directors are subject to a closed period so they cannot buy !!!!

[sailastra] 24/1/2018 17:13

A long term hold is not a trade as such it is a long term commitment to a growth story which accepts that the day to day share price will fluctuate. A trader has no such commitment just a hope that they can second guess those day to day fluctuations...A trade is a short term bet providing liquidity and volatility to the market and lots of commission which keeps the wheels of fortune spinning along...

[jamesrowe] 24/1/2018 16:48

I don't understand how commentators can in one breath point out Apple's massive pre-order of 3D sensing components with a supplier who is building significant foundry capacity and then with the next breath imply that IQE's 3D sensing is doomed due to the imminent cancellation of the iPhone X. As far as I can see Apple is completely committed to an augmented reality & 3D sensing future so if it does stop producing the iPhone X (in order not to reduce its perceived value at end of life by lowering its price) then it will certainly bring out other models stocked to the hilt with 3D sensing capability.... and then there is the iPad to similarly equip.... and how about an Apple car....

[wattene] 24/1/2018 16:48

Looks like the shorters are calling in their mates to help them out - Quentec and Millenium joined the party this week. They now have 12.19%, a tad over 92m shares to buy back. Source FCA.
Let's see what tomorrow brings, maybe another buying opportunity :).

[aphrodites] 24/1/2018 16:46

bocase

Re CAPITULATION. When the price hit 100p today, which under my technical analysis chart and also my post earlier today, this completed the fall, I decided to put my toe back into the water and bought some shares at 103p.

I did post the fall to 100p,would be fast once the 120p was broken but I didn't expect it to happen today!!!!

I still have some dry powder to buy more but I shall now wait to see if the shorters report a reduction in their positions. 50m shares traded today cannot all be sellers and I wonder if the directors might have been buyers!!!

[aphrodites] 24/1/2018 16:46

bocase

Re CAPITULATION. When the price hit 100p today, which under my technical analysis chart and also my post earlier today, this completed the fall, I decided to put my toe back into the water and bought some shares at 103p.

I did post the fall to 100p,would be fast once the 120p was broken but I didn't expect it to happen today!!!!

I still have some dry powder to buy more but I shall now wait to see if the shorters report a reduction in their positions. 50m shares traded today cannot all be sellers and I wonder if the directors might have been buyers!!!

[maroonbells] 24/1/2018 16:45

Send me the 8% and I will be happy for you.

[shanklin] 24/1/2018 16:36

Pleased to make 10% on a trade in a couple of hours this afternoon. Doesn't make up for not getting out at the top. Who knows where this will end up tomorrow morning?

[bulltradept] 24/1/2018 16:36

"who said I was referring to you? But if the cap fits...."

Well if you don't have the ability to counter my comments, we'll leave it at that then eh. ;-)

[davemac3] 24/1/2018 16:34

who said I was referring to you? But if the cap fits....

[bulltradept] 24/1/2018 16:28

"Traded in and out today with a net 8% return but not happy because I am an investor not a trader"

Hang on that's incorrect, a long term hold is a trade just like a shorter time frame trade, just that the length of time is different.

Investors 'seem' to think of themselves as somehow superior to traders who use shorter times frames. I don't see any difference actually.

[bulltradept] 24/1/2018 16:25

"You obviously don't understand what I am saying."

I understand exactly what you are saying, perhaps those weak holders as you call them, bought back lower?

"This results in a dramatic fall which usually marks the end of a sequences of falls and then the hedge funds buy back in at the advantageous price that they have engineered."

I bought in at considerably higher today and took a series of losses on the way down (all within acceptable limits), fortunately I also bought back in at £1.00 (and on the way back up)today, so could you have, so I don't see the problem personally.

You play the game within the rules that you set, otherwise you are gambling or blaming others for the results from the market.

[yankeekraut] 24/1/2018 16:16

no statment will be issued, that is considered "material". IQE are in their "quiet period". Earnings call statements by LITE / AAPL, which clearly have positive or negative impact on VCSEL Mkt., or some type of general Mkt. correction will certainly move the needle; It's still a long time till March 20th though.

[blueflame] 24/1/2018 16:14

What a day....American secretary for transportation on TV in Davos saying they are going for huge growth in driverless cars, that has got to be good for IQE..