Ip Share Discussion Threads

[pierre oreilly] 06/4/2020 15:16

Nanopore's on the brink of being floated. If they have written the value down, it's just precautionary since there is no real price. We'll see the value soon when it's floated as planned. I hope IP have taken the stake off invesco at the new lower valuation, which would explain the new lower valuation. The illequidity of the unquoted companies means any valuation at all is very notional and doesn't really mean much in pragmatic terms.

[rambutan2] 06/4/2020 14:38

I imagine last week’s drop was due to the Invesco news re sale of all unquoteds and 60% chop in valuations. They own a chunk of Nanopore and a few other positions...

[bamboo2] 06/4/2020 10:23

Bought a few.

Weichi [Ceres] complete on their anti-dilution rights imminently.

This should lead to another healthy cash injection to add to £55m+ so far for 2020.

gla

[bamboo2] 27/3/2020 16:51

The current chart pattern could be viewed as a bear flag or pennant.
Confirmation is an eod close below 41.5, tp 23.7

Quite a bit of support in between, approx 45, 38, 33, 27

[bamboo2] 19/3/2020 11:51

I reluctantly took a 5p a share loss earlier this week, as I went 100% cash.
Quite glad now!

It will be fascinating to see who is buying and selling the volume, and at what price this plunge stops.

The large H&S on the chart has a tp approx 10.75
Historical support will probably prevent this being reached.
Hs 38.70, 31.50, 27.80

[guildedge] 18/3/2020 18:12

36m shares traded. Someone eager to sell shares here.

Ceres back to 238p. Down from 500p.

[guildedge] 18/3/2020 11:25

Share is dropping like a lead balloon. CWR retracing to 270p. Avacta now down to 13.5p. Now below last years price. Most portfolios are down 20-25%. IP group is effectively a fund. I think Invesco may be selling again. Someone is selling. 4m volume today already. Perhaps Blackrock?

However you paint the picture they are still looking at a H1 loss. All these shares tanking above. It would take some major news to boost this share.

Not sure the sold CWR shares will cover the admin and losses elsewhere. In a bear market selling large volumes of shares would involve taking big losses.

Maybe things will improve once Corona gone but it's a long road ahead/

[guildedge] 17/3/2020 16:53

Avacta is now down at 16p. Had peaked at 30.5p. Lost almost all gains. Same price as year end.
Mirriad 6.25p. Lost 40% in a few weeks.
Ceres now below 300p. Still holding up somewhat well. They have a lot of orders in their books. See if this moves them towards a profit.
Deep Matter still about 2p.
Xeros 0.35p. Almost worthless. 3m market cap.
Getech 11.25p Market cap of 4m.
Ixico 48p _ Albeit these have already been sold.
Circassia - 16p Lost 12p in 1-2 months,
Applied Graphene - 109. Peaked this year at 19p.
Intelligent Ultrasound - 10.25p.
Diurnal - 22p. Had peaked at 36p this years. market cap 19m.

Overall Corona is causing merry havoc for IPO. Not suprised at the 50p value here. Sure they have made a few sales here. The losses from the above if they don't recover will be 20m+. Many are now worth a fraction of what IP Group put in years ago. The sale of CWR shares seemed very good business given what has happened.

I guess once this is all over some of the stronger companies will show better figures. Really IPO is about 5-10 key firms here. The rest it would be hard to sell their stakes where the shares have fallen hugely.

[bamboo2] 12/3/2020 23:37

Re Ceres deals, Assuming Weichi complete on their anti-dilution rights subscription in April 2020, if my calcs are correct, there is an additional approx £27m to add to the £55.4m cash realisations so far for 2020.



"As highlighted in the announcement on 22 January 2020, Weichai Power ("Weichai") has the option to maintain its holding at 20% of the issued share capital. Weichai has confirmed that it will exercise its anti-dilution rights to subscribe for an additional 3,488,980 Ordinary Shares at the subscription price of 320p. This will maintain its shareholding at 20% of the subsequently enlarged issued share capital. This additional Weichai subscription is due to complete by mid-April 2020 and will be confirmed by RNS at that time.

The aggregate proceeds of the subscriptions by Bosch and Weichai for new shares in Ceres will total £49 million.

ps not sure why this announcement has not appeared in an rns of its own.

pps IP Group also selling some of it's ORPH holding today

[guildedge] 12/3/2020 20:03

Ceres back down to 300p. Which means getting 340p per share was a pretty good result on the shares it sold. Ceres RNS today show Robert Bosch GmbH has accepted shares at 320p. 20p above the market price.

In a bear market 300p still seems high for a firm making a loss. Albeit with much promise. Avacta has now dropped below 20p too. IPO share price is well below the hard NAV. Yet the market has always given it a 40% discount. Our guesses of 1.3bn valuation was far from the mark.

It's been a day of records being smashed. FTSE down nearly 11%. DowJones down nearly 9%. Dow Jones has lost nearly 8k points this year. FTSE 2200 points.

Can they really go any lower?

[brucie5] 12/3/2020 09:35

bambo, guildedge, just to say thank you for maintaining the coverage here. I do continue to read your posts though have resolved in the main to refrain from posting during Lent! Nevertheless I continue to keep on eye on these markets, and while I am very positive about IPO's potential, we appear to be well and truly in bear mode, so I have adjusted all my holdings accordingly, with more than half an eye on the charts, which to me, need to go back to what happened in 2008, when IPO hit 30p. Crazy then, would be crazy now. But when Mr. Exuberant becomes Mr. Depressive, you can be sure that we are no longer subject to rational valuations.
All FWIW. Keep up the good work.

[bamboo2] 11/3/2020 21:50

Guildedge, I think management recognise the need for changes, particularly in Biotech, this comment..

" However, recognising the risk profile typically associated with such companies, [Biotech] going forward it intends to direct capital expenditure at a smaller number of high conviction assets with a target ownership of at least 25%."

I think this means we will see some the p/f's co's, particularly the listed flatliners, sold at a loss.

Given the dramatic changes forced by closures and redemption's from Woodford and Invesco, both the IPO Group and the listed constituents are adapting quite well.

[guildedge] 11/3/2020 21:21

Market barely moved on these result. Overall portfolio is down 43.9m. Of course this does not take into account of 2020 CWR boost. Seems IP Group value is based on 20 or so key firms.

'The largest contributors to unrealised gains on the revaluation of investments were Ceres Power Holdings plc (£27.5m), Istesso Limited (£24.7m) and Oxford Nanopore Technologies Limited (£12.2m). These unrealised gains were principally offset by unrealised losses on the revaluation of Autifony Therapeutics Limited (£13.0m), PsiOxus Therapeutics Limited (£10.9m), Topivert Limited (£10.7m), AIM-quoted Actual Experience plc (£10.6m), and AIM-quoted Circassia Pharmaceuticals plc (£8.4m).

The performance of the Group's holdings in companies quoted on AIM saw a net unrealised fair value decrease of £12.4m (2018: decrease of £99.8m) while the Group's holdings in unquoted companies experienced a net fair value decrease of £58.2m (2018: increase of £46.4m).'

So AIM and unquted companies all losing value.

They name 112 other companies. Devalued from 371m to 274m. Huge drop.

Overall losses for year 78.9m. Of which 30m or so comes from admin. Better than the 279m loss last year. Still a loss.

I wonder if they should ditch these smaller investments. With Corona some of these companies are bound to face issues.

Will some of these firms recover over 2020? They only have 8-9 firms worth more than 20m. They have actually reduced value of Oxford nanopore over the year.

Right now 60p is where IP Group is. CWR has fallen back a bit. See where 2020 take this. Maybe it will move higher if market recovers?

They seem to of done well with Hvivo in 2020. Avacta has fallen back a bit.

How do you move IPO to a profit?

[bamboo2] 11/3/2020 07:28

Cash realised so far 2020 of £55.4m. This is £10.4m ahead of my estimation.

Main p/f shows a 4% loss, which is understandable given the various listed flatliners such as MWG and XSG, and their chaotic share sales last year by WIM

Reduction in overheads

Does indeed look like management are following the example of Parkwalk in starting to take cash profit from the p/f.

[bamboo2] 11/3/2020 07:18

IP Group plc – Annual Results
11 Mar 2020



IP Group plc (LSE: IPO), the developer of intellectual property-based businesses, today announces its annual financial results for the year ended 31 December 2019.

Portfolio highlights

Fair value of portfolio: £1,045.6m (2018: £1,128.2m)
169% increase in cash realisations to £79.5m, which exceeded investment into portfolio for the first time since 2007 (2018: £29.5m)
Investment into portfolio: £64.7m (2018: £100.9m)
Net portfolio fair value reduction1 of £43.9m, approximately 4% (2018: £48.4m, 4%)
Oxford Nanopore announced investment and secondary share sales totalling £109.5m, having more than doubled revenue and orders in 2018 to $43.7m and $60.6m respectively
Istesso announced positive outcome from Phase 2a study of MBS2320 for rheumatoid arthritis
Significant commercial progress at Ceres Power including first product launch with Japan’s Miura and further £8m licence and joint development agreement with Korea’s Doosan
Total funds raised by portfolio companies of £430m (2018: £717m) including financing rounds for Inivata (£40.0m), Featurespace (£25.0m) and Azuri Technologies (£20.0m)
Financial and operational highlights

Hard NAV1 £1,141.5m or 108 pence per share (2018: £1,217.5m, 115 pence per share)
Net assets £1,141.9m (2018: £1,218.2m)
Strong liquidity with gross cash and deposits at 31 December 2019 of £194.9m (2018: £219.0m) and net cash of £112.4m (2018: £121.2m)
Return on Hard NAV1 of negative £73.7m (2018: negative £75.6m)
Loss for the year of £78.9m (2018: £293.8m loss)
Net overheads reduced by 13% to £22.6m (2018: £26.0m)
Parkwalk Advisors, the Group’s specialist EIS subsidiary, grew assets under management to £300m (2018: £220m)
Further encouraging progress made in developing the Group’s businesses in the US and Australia
Board strengthened through appointment of two additional independent non-executive directors
Post period end highlights

Ceres Power announces Bosch to increase stake to 18% from 4% with £38m strategic investment, which included a £22m partial realisation by IP Group
Total further cash realisations from the portfolio of £55.4m in 2020
1 Alternative performance measure, see Note 27 for definition and reconciliation to IFRS primary statements

Alan Aubrey, Chief Executive of IP Group, said: “In 2019 realisations from our portfolio hit a record £79.5m and exceeded investment into the portfolio for the first time since 2007. This strong cash generation has continued into 2020, with realisations to date now totalling more than £55m. Realisations from our maturing companies, the ongoing focusing and rationalisation of the portfolio as well as tight cost control has placed the Group in a strong financial position and these remain three areas of focus for the Group in 2020.

During 2019 the Group’s portfolio saw a net fair value reduction of £43.9 or 4%, and, whilst disappointing, this reflects ongoing rationalisation in the portfolio and significant headwinds, particularly in the UK market. However, our three most valuable holdings, Oxford Nanopore, Istesso and Ceres Power, made excellent progress during the year with Oxford Nanopore and Ceres Power also announcing positive developments since the year end. Consequently, we remain confident in the prospects of our portfolio, which we continue to believe includes world-changing businesses that will deliver impact and significant benefits for multiple stakeholders.”

[bamboo2] 10/3/2020 21:13

sharetimebuy filtered.

Kuur Theraputics about to start testing CAR-T that avoids potential GvHD in the patient. Sidestepping GvHD problems will be a major milestone.

[bamboo2] 10/3/2020 20:40

rambutan, lets hope so.

Worth remembering that figures won't include the recent Oxford Nanopore and Ceres deals, but these should make it into the outlook. It's around £44m, so a considerable amount.

Diurnal and Avacta should be showing near term commercial promise.

Oxford Nano is pencilled in for an offering. First light is overdue an update on it's fusion device.

I have noticed that IP Group is not pushing co's onto the market as quickly as in the past. This looks a good move.

[rambutan2] 10/3/2020 20:13

Also added a few below 60p. Am hoping results will illustrate that management are now trying to run this on a commercial, moneymaking basis.

[bamboo2] 10/3/2020 17:33

Added a few more near the lows, but still averaging above 60.

[bamboo2] 03/3/2020 09:21

Bought more this morning.

Results [2019] on 11/3/2020

[bamboo2] 02/3/2020 17:32

Started buying back these today.

[brucie5] 28/2/2020 14:50

Back to 65?

[brucie5] 27/2/2020 10:51

Other thing to bear in mind is that this share price has been in decline for 5 years, since double tops at 2.60, early 2015. In 2015 you could pick up CWR for well under £1. The value of NANO, which appears to be doubling its revenues without an IPO, has, I suspect grown similarly.

[brucie5] 27/2/2020 09:57

It would be interesting to know how NANO is faring in the current crisis. On the one hand, disruption to travel and supply will inevitably affect its working; on the other, its genetic sequencing tech will have great value for the proposition going forward.

As to its current resilience, that to me is hardly surprising. Substantial cash balance means it can really pick the survivors it wants to support in the down cycle; and it's already at a massive discount to assets.