The market is really slow off the mark this morning with IPO.
CHRY has moved up 4% on the Featurespace "news" and IPO has barely budged... (even though IIRC there's more upside vs. NAV in IPO) |
Yes unless we both miscalculated. |
AFAICS, a sale at £730m would represent an uplift of just over £34m to the end of June NAV or just over 3.4pps? |
Looks like good news |
Watched presentation in full, I was impressed.
CEO and CFOO had a full grip on the controls.
My earlier attitude to the then new CEO has certainly changed and pleased he has the reins. I didn't see how he would develop into the role.
Pleased to have re-entered at decent volume and low price. |
Thanks for your thoughts swashbuck1er. I was struggling to join the dots as to what was the potential reasoning after the Stage 2 given the 2 specific comparison candidates. |
It's a drug-drug interaction trial. I have a couple of hypothesis of why this might be important. Either the phase 2 data suggests the drug needs delivery with patient stratification, or they have a potential licensing partner requiring good data as a condition precedent (or believe they need this data to achieve the same) |
There lies the issue. Increasing the percentage quoted might help.Or weightings of IT Tech vs BIO Tech.Given the risks in drug development. |
if their valuations are fair then expand the buybacks to close the discount.
50% discount seems too high. |
Was looking at the wrong column, £127m |
Find out soon enough. The fall from June onwards was precipitous and timing........ If it does get hit it will be interesting to see the volume. A £50M hit to NAV, if that's worse case, approx 5% of the £1Bn. Seeing through that needn't be a massive issue.
I'm more positive now than for ages simply because I think they are doing the right things.
£10M extra for the buy back is measured and could be increased. Where else could a 50% (approx) discount be bought?
No doubt some volatility and turbulence. |
Hard to quantify, the actual discount applied to Istesso within current share price.But everyone knows it's very high risk and given the delay, this level only increases.So i wouldn't be surprised to see mixed results. But who knows. |
I don't need the capitals thanks. If you think a £50m hit to the NAV has been factored into the share price, we can agree to disagree. Good news and I'm all in as plenty to like about quite a few of the others as well. Featurespace settles early and it might given the number of company house filings tidying up the capital structure and I may buy a bit more. But in the back of my mind they have only allocated £10m more for the buyback, that is £10m more to reach target discount to NAV. |
Might the fall from June 2024 until recently be the pricing in of the Istesso risk? |
Have you considered the Istesso risk might already (edit) be in the price and should it come out less than catastrophic the price might rise? |
Istesso is the value risk as I see it. Just when they were due to report the phase 2 they launched a phase 1 pharmacokinetics trial with Leramistat. That is due to complete at the end of September, when maybe they will report one in the context of the outcome of the other. If not for this I would have doubled up rather than sell half.https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT06379958?intr=Leramistat&rank=1 |
Edit.
It's improving.
I've been no fan of this management but I now think the message has landed. Will be very happy to change my opinion of them. A little more time needed.
They appear to be doing the right things. |
ONT up 7%, a fair to good half year report, but after the presentation snooze fest, the stock is unchanged to down.
Any doubt it's the management who need to pick up their game? |
They want to continue buybacks until allocated buyback cash is used or discount to NAV is closed to 20%.
The way ONT is recovering they'll need to allocate more money. |
palisz/pink, of course. Thanks for info on NAV.
I got my terminology mixed up.
Accounts are not a strong area for me. |
bb2, they appear to be doing the right sort of things.
There is hope! |
Yes palisz nav includes cash.
If holding is conservatively valued on balance sheet then disposal can be above nav for that holding and ipo nav INCREASE on conversion to cash. |
My understanding is the portfolio NAV includes cash.
So a disposal of a particular investments would not affect the NAV
Securities go down and cash goes up. Net net no impact. |
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